The Economic Singularity · Artificial Intelligence and the Death of Capitalism by Chace, Calum -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Title Page Contents Praise for The Economic Singularity About the Author Also by Calum Chace Dedication Copyright 1. Introduction: The Economic Singularity

Accelerating change Superintelligence and the technological singularity Technological unemployment and the economic singularity

2. The History of Automation

2.1 – The industrial revolution 2.2 – The information revolution 2.3 – The Automation story so far

The mechanisation of agriculture One-trick ponies Mechanisation and automation Retail and “prosumers” Call centres Food service Manufacturing Warehouses Secretaries

2.4 – The Luddite fallacy

Ned Ludd The fallacy The Luddite fallacy and economic theory The Luddite fallacy and economic experience Is it different this time?

3. Is it different this time?

3.1 – Prophets of change

Martin Ford Exponentials and automation The challenge of UBI Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson The Bounty and the Spread Hanging onto work Other voices

Richard and Daniel Susskind Scott Santens Jerry Kaplan CGP Grey Gary Marcus Federico Pistono

Two unexpected voices

Andy Haldane Martin Wolf

3.2 – Academic and consultancy studies

Frey and Osborne Gartner The Millennium Project Pew Research Center Fundacion Innovacion BankInter McKinsey A swelling chorus

3.3 – Crying wolf

David Autor Robin Hanson Tyler Cowen Geoff Colvin Crying wolf

3.4 – AI to date

What is AI? The value of intelligence Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Superintelligence A quiet revolution Origins and winters Machine learning How good is today's AI? Games and quizzes Self-driving vehicles Search Image and speech recognition Learning and innovating Emulating and predicting human cognitive abilities Is it just Google? Summary

3.5 – Exponential future

Big investments, different approaches Openness Extending connectivity Exponentials Doubling up Moore's Law No more Moore? 3D chips and new architectures Towards quantum computing So what? Where's this all heading?

3.6 – What people do

Jobs and tasks Processing information Working with people Manual tasks Tipping points and exponentials

3.7 – Related technologies

One ring to bind them The Internet of Things Digital assistants Friends? Wearables, insideables Doing business with Friends Robots Google's robot army – the dog that didn't bark Complicated relationships More robots: androids, drones and exoskeletons Virtual Reality Applications of VR and AR Related concerns Privacy Security Inequality Isolation

3.8 – The poster child for technological unemployment: self-driving vehicles

Why? To autonomy and beyond The state of the art The impact on cities Detroit's response Other affected industries Programming ethics Driving jobs

3.9 – Who's next?

Low-income jobs Food service Customer preference Call centres Manual work The professions Journalists Other writers Lawyers Discovery Revealing the iceberg Forms More sophisticated work Doctors Better and cheaper diagnostics Prescribing Keeping current Operations Education Financial services

3.10 – Jobs or no jobs

The question Jobs, not work The gig economy Centaurs The human touch Robot therapist Made by hand New jobs Education Entrepreneurs Artists

3.11 – What's the problem?

The Star Trek economy Abundance

3.12 – Conclusion: yes, it’s different this time

Counter-arguments Raising awareness

4. A Timeline

4.1 – Un-forecasts

Three snapshots of a positive scenario Unpredictable yet inevitable Not forecasts Super un-forecasting

4.2 – 2021

Awareness

4.3 – 2031

Discussion and experimentation

4.4 – 2041

Radical abundance

5. The Challenges

5.1 – Economic contraction 5.2 – Distribution

Universal Basic Income Experiments Socialism? Inflationary? Unaffordable? The Laffer Curve Let’s kill all the bureaucrats Assets Summary: UBI, but not yet

5.3 – Meaning

The meaning of life Meaning and work The rich and the old Virtually happy

5.4 – Allocation

The house on the beach VR to the rescue? Algocracy

5.5 – Cohesion

The scenario of “the Gods and the Useless” Brave New World Will capitalism remain fit for purpose?

6. Scenarios

6.1 – No Change 6.2 – Racing with the machines

Centaurs Icebergs Creativity and caring

6.3 – Capitalism + UBI 6.4 – Fracture 6.5 – Collapse 6.6 – Protopia

Utopia, Dystopia, Protopia Collective ownership Decentralisation Blockchain Collective ownership

7. Summary and Recommendations

7.1 – The argument

Automation and unemployment The upside Challenges and scenarios

7.2 – The two singularities 7.3 – What is to be done?

Relinquishment won’t work Monitoring Planning The role of the tech giants What should I study? The most important generations

Acknowledgements Notes

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