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Index
Acknowledgements
Preface to the second edition
6. Chance: Risk in General
6.1 Introduction
6.1.1 Objective and subjective risk
6.2 Games of chance and risk bearing
6.3 The utility function revisited
6.4 The “certainty equivalent” approach
6.5 Changing utility functions
6.6 A measure of risk aversion
6.7 Multiple (more than two) outcomes
6.8 The continuous normal case
6.9 Conclusion
7. Uncertainty: Risk in Real Estate
7.1 Introduction
7.1.1 Non-normality – how and where does it fit?
7.2 The continuous stable case
7.2.1 Stable parameters
7.2.2 The stable pdf
7.2.3 Stable distribution problems
7.2.4 Still more distributions?
7.3 Enter real estate
7.4 Determinism
7.5 Determinism and house prices
7.6 Determinism and real estate investment
7.7 Risk and uncertainty
7.8 Rolling the dice
7.9 Real estate - the “Have it Your Way” game
7.10 The payoff
7.11 Data issues
7.12 Conclusion
Appendix
8. The Labor Component of Private Investor Real Estate Returns
8.1 Introduction
8.1.1 The important aspect of time
8.2 Foundation
8.3 Notation guide
8.4 The no bequests model
8.4.1 Wealth accumulation prior to retirement
8.4.2 Wealth accumulation after retirement
8.4.3 Simulation #1
8.4.4 Simulation #2
8.4.5 Simulation #3
8.4.6 Simulation #4
8.5 The constant wealth model
8.5.1 Simulation #5
8.6 Conclusion
9. Spectral Risk Measures
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Some recent history
9.3 The embarrassing problem with portfolios of real estate
9.4 Spectral risk measure
9.5 Spectral risk measures for real estate investment
9.6 Scenario analysis
9.6.1 Institutional data (NCREIF)
9.6.2 Non-institutional data (CoStar)
9.7 Conclusion
10. The Tax Deferred Exchange
10.1 Introduction
10.1.1 Taxes are less certain for real estate investors
10.1.2 Variable definitions
10.1.3 The structure of the examples
10.2 The base case: Purchase – Hold – Sell
10.3 Example 1 – A modified growth projection over six years
10.4 Example 2 – The tax deferred exchange strategy
10.4.1 Exchange variable definitions
10.4.2 The value of tax deferral
10.4.3 Tax deferral as a risk modifier
10.4.4 The sale-and-better-repurchase strategy: The cost of exchanging
10.5 Example 3 – Exchanging and “The Plodder”
10.6 Data issues
10.7 Conclusion
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