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Index
Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Contents
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Exhibits
List of Equations
Acknowledgements
About the Authors
Preface
Foreword
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1. Introduction
1.2. The Problem with Megaprojects
1.2.1. Megaproject Risks
1.2.2. Megaproject Risk Assessment
1.2.3. A New Risk Assessment Framework
1.3. Purpose and Scope
1.4. Structure of the Book
1.5. Originality and Value
1.6. Summary
Chapter 2 The Edinburgh Tram Network (ETN) Project
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Background to the Project
2.2.1. The 1871–1956 Era
2.2.2. The New Edinburgh Tram Network
2.2.3. Tram Network Construction and Civil Engineering Works
2.2.4. Contractual Disputes
2.3. STEEP Risks
2.3.1. Social Issues
2.3.2. Technical Issues
2.3.3. Environmental Issues
2.3.4. Political Issues
2.4. Summary
Chapter 3 Megaproject Risks Assessment Framework
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Risk Analysis Framework
3.2.1. The ANP Modelling Route
3.2.1.1. ANP model structure development
3.2.1.2. Pairwise comparison
3.2.1.3. Consistency test
3.2.2. The SD Modelling Route
3.3. Risk Clusters
3.3.1. The Social Risks Cluster
3.3.2. Technical Risk Cluster
3.3.3. Economic Risks
3.3.3.1. Completion risks
3.3.3.2. Market risk
3.3.4. Environmental Risk Cluster
3.3.5. Political Risk Cluster
3.4. Summary
Chapter 4 Megaproject Risk Quantification
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Analysis of Risk Interdependency
4.2.1. Qualitative Approaches
4.2.2. The Quantitative Approach
4.2.3. Descriptive Quantitative Results and Analysis
4.2.4. Standardized Quantitative Results and Analysis
4.2.5. Adjustments of Participants’ Opinions
4.3. ANP Model
4.4. Pairwise Comparison
4.5. Risk Interdependency Matrix
4.5.1. Project Objectives Cluster
4.5.2. Potential Risks Cluster
4.5.3. Potential Risks Sub-Clusters
4.6. Supermatrix Calculation
4.7. Risk Rating
4.8. Consistency Test
4.9. Risk Priority Index (RPI)
4.10. Summary
Chapter 5 Risk Simulation
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Project Risk Systems Model
5.2.1. Model Causality
5.2.2. Initial Model Development
5.2.3. System Boundaries
5.3. STEEP Risks System
5.3.1. Social Risks System
5.3.1.1. The vicious cycle of social risks generation
5.3.1.2. The vicious cycle of grievance prevention
5.3.1.3. Causalities for social risk stock variables
5.3.2. Technical Risks System
5.3.2.1. Causalities for technical risk stock variables
5.3.3. Economic Risks System
5.3.3.1. Causalities for the economic risks stock variables
5.3.4. Environmental Risks System
5.3.4.1. Causalities for environmental risks stock variables
5.3.5. Political Risks System
5.3.5.1. Causalities for political risks stock variables
5.4. System Verification
5.5. System Modelling, Testing and Simulation
5.5.1. Integrated Stock and Flow STEEP Models
5.5.2. Model Equation Formulation
5.5.3. Model Evaluation Tests
5.5.4. Dynamic Simulation Results and Discussion
5.5.4.1. Dynamic social risks system model
5.5.4.2. Dynamic technical risks system model
5.5.4.3. Dynamic economic risks system model
5.5.4.4. Dynamic environmental risks system model
5.5.4.5. Dynamic political risks system model
5.6. System Validation
5.6.1. Structure Verification
5.6.2. Parameter Verification
5.6.3. Boundary Adequacy
5.6.4. Dimensional Consistency
5.7. Summary
Chapter 6 Conclusions
6.1. Introduction
6.2. Value for Practice
6.3. Contribution and Impacts
6.4. Practical Guide
6.5. Limitations and Further Research
6.5.1. Limitations
6.5.2. Further Research
References
Appendices
Appendix A Model Validation
Introduction
Philosophical Aspects of Model Validity
Model Validation Process
Methods for Testing and Validating the Integrated System Models
Importance of the Integrated System Model Objective
Validating the Model Structure
Tests of Suitability
Structure Verification
Parameter Verification
Boundary Adequacy
Dimensional Consistency
Extreme Conditions
Validating the Model Behaviour
Behaviour Reproduction Test
Sensitivity Analysis
Numerical Sensitivity Analysis
Behaviour Mode Sensitivity Analysis
Other Tests
Policy Analysis, Design and Improvement
Feedback Approach
Disaggregation Approach
Simulation Approach
Manageable Model Size
Policy Implementation
Summary
Appendix B Structured Interview Questionnaire and Participants
Structured Interview Questionnaire
Appendix C Respondent’s Mean Scores of Importance
Index
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