Rational Choice in an Uncertain World · the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making by Hastie, Reid -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Title Copyright Contents Preface 1. Thinking and Deciding

1.1 Decision Making Is a Skill 1.2 Thinking: Automatic and Controlled 1.3 The Computational Model of the Mind 1.4 Through Darkest Psychoanalytic Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition 1.5 Quality of Choice: Rationality 1.6 The Invention of Modern Decision Theory References

2. What Is Decision Making?

2.1 Definition of a Decision 2.2 Picturing Decisions 2.3 Decision Quality, Revisited 2.4 Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example 2.5 Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs 2.6 The Rationality of Considering Only the Future 2.7 The Rest of This Book References

3. A General Framework for Judgment

3.1 A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction 3.2 Research With the Lens Model Framework 3.3 Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models 3.4 How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment? 3.5 Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model 3.6 Objections and Rebuttals 3.7 The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions References

4. The Fundamental Judgment Strategy: Anchoring and Adjustment

4.1 Salient Values 4.2 Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment 4.3 Anchoring on Ourselves 4.4 Anchoring the Past in the Present References

5. Judging Heuristically

5.1 Going Beyond the Information Given 5.2 Estimating Frequencies and Probabilities 5.3 Availability of Memories 5.4 Biased Samples in Memory 5.5 Biased Sampling From Memory 5.6 Availability to the Imagination 5.7 From Availability to Probability and Causality 5.8 Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things 5.9 Representative Thinking 5.10 The Ratio Rule References

6. Explanation-Based Judgments

6.1 Everyone Likes a Good Story 6.2 The Conjunction Probability Error (Again) 6.3 Judging From Explanations 6.4 Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom 6.5 Scenarios About Ourselves 6.6 Scenarios About the Unthinkable 6.7 Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past 6.8 Sometimes It’s Better to Forget References

7. Chance and Cause

7.1 Misconceptions About Chance 7.2 Illusions of Control 7.3 Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn’t 7.4 Regression Toward the Mean 7.5 Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness References

8. Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty

8.1 What to Do About the Biases 8.2 Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities 8.3 Comprehending the Situation Being Judged 8.4 Testing for Rationality 8.5 How to Think About Inverse Probabilities 8.6 Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors 8.7 The Other Side of the Coin: The Probability of a Disjunction of Events 8.8 Changing Our Minds: Bayes’s Theorem 8.9 Statistical Decision Theory 8.10 Concluding Comment on Rationality References

9. Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences

9.1 What Good Is Happiness? 9.2 The Role of Emotions in Evaluations 9.3 The Value of Money 9.4 Decision Utility—Predicting What We Will Value 9.5 Constructing Values References

10. From Preferences to Choices

10.1 Deliberate Choices Among Complex Alternatives 10.2 Ordering Alternatives 10.3 Grouping Alternatives 10.4 Choosing Unconsciously 10.5 How to Make Good Choices References

11. A Rational Decision Theory

11.1 Formally Defining Rationality 11.2. Making Theories Understandable—The Axiomatic Method 11.3 Defining Rationality: Expected Utility Theory 11.4 Traditional Objections to the Axioms 11.5 The Shoulds and Dos of the System 11.6 Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis References

12. A Descriptive Decision Theory

12.1 Non-expected Utility Theories 12.2 Gain–Loss Framing Effects 12.3 Loss Aversion 12.4 Look to the Future References

13. What’s Next? New Directions in Research on Judgment and Decision Making

13.1 The Neuroscience of Decisions 13.2 Emotions in Decision Making 13.3 The Rise of Experimental Methods to Study Dynamic Decisions 13.4 Do We Really Know Where We’re Headed? References

14. In Praise of Uncertainty

14.1 Uncertainty as Negative 14.2 The Illusion of Hedonic Certainty 14.3 The Price of Denying Uncertainty 14.4 Two Cheers for Uncertainty 14.5 Living With Uncertainty References

Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory Index About the Authors