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Index
Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Contents
Foreword
Acknowledgments
1. The Misapplied Nexus of Theory and Policy
War, Coercion, and Deterrence
It’s Strategic Exploitation
Purpose of This Book
2. The Structure of Strategic Environments
Thinking Structurally
The Structure of the Conventional and Nuclear Strategic Environments
Deterrence
Defense and Deterrence by Denial
Technology but Not Technological Determinism
Structure and Imperatives
Existing Strategic Environments and Cyber Activity
The Structure of the Third Strategic Environment
An Alternative Theory
Conclusion
3. Cyber Behavior and Dynamics
State Behaviors
Inter-State Phenomena and Dynamics
A Consideration of Escalation Actions and Dynamics
Potential Impact of AI on Behavior and Dynamics
Tacit Coordination, Tacit Cooperation, and Tacit Bargaining
Conclusion
4. Theory and the Empirical Record
Operational Persistence
Exploitation and the Cyber Fait Accompli
Strategic Outcomes
Competitive Interaction and Escalation within Cyberspace
Current Scarcity of Direct Cyber Engagement
Data Representativeness and Counterfactual Exploration
Conclusion
5. Cyber Stability
Stability and Initiative Persistence
Destabilizing Elements
Stabilizing Mechanisms in an Initiative Persistent Environment
Seeking Consensus on International Law (or Other International Formal Agreements)
Tacit Coordination—Mutual Understandings through Independent Expressions of Opinio Juris
Tacit Bargaining—Seeking Mutually Dependent, Mutual Understandings through Cyber Interactions
Ever-Changing Technology
Conclusion
6. The Cyber Aligned Nexus of Theory and Policy
Policy Implications
Paradigm Change
7. United States Case Study
2010 to 2014
2015 to 2017
2018 to 2021
Viewing US Cyber Strategy through the Lens of Kuhnian Paradigm Change
Actions to Further Institutionalize a Kuhnian Change
Organizing to Seize the Initiative—From Whole-of- Government to Whole-of-Nation-Plus
US Choices
Conclusion
Notes
Bibliography
Index
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