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Index
Dedication
Title Page
Imprint Page
Contents
Introduction
1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias
2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion
3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion
4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof
5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy
6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity
7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1)
8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2)
9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias
10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect
11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO MAP AT ALL: Availability Bias
12 WHY ‘NO PAIN, NO GAIN’ SHOULD SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: The It’ll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy
13 EVEN TRUE STORIES ARE FAIRYTALES: Story Bias
14 WHY YOU SHOULD KEEP A DIARY: Hindsight Bias
15 WHY YOU SYSTEMATICALLY OVERESTIMATE YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND ABILITIES: Overconfidence Effect
16 DON’T TAKE NEWS ANCHORS SERIOUSLY: Chauffeur Knowledge
17 YOU CONTROL LESS THAN YOU THINK: Illusion of Control
18 NEVER PAY YOUR LAWYER BY THE HOUR: Incentive Super-Response Tendency
19 THE DUBIOUS EFFICACY OF DOCTORS, CONSULTANTS AND PSYCHOTHERAPISTS: Regression to Mean
20 NEVER JUDGE A DECISION BY ITS OUTCOME: Outcome Bias
21 LESS IS MORE: The Paradox of Choice
22 YOU LIKE ME, YOU REALLY REALLY LIKE ME: Liking Bias
23 DON’T CLING TO THINGS: Endowment Effect
24 THE INEVITABILITY OF UNLIKELY Events: Coincidence
25 THE CALAMITY OF CONFORMITY: Groupthink
26 WHY YOU’LL SOON BE PLAYING MEGATRILLIONS: Neglect of Probability
27 WHY THE LAST COOKIE IN THE JAR MAKES YOUR MOUTH WATER: Scarcity Error
28 WHEN YOU HEAR HOOFBEATS, DON’T EXPECT A ZEBRA: Base-Rate Neglect
29 WHY THE ‘BALANCING FORCE OF THE UNIVERSE’ IS BALONEY: Gambler’s Fallacy
30 WHY THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE MAKES OUR HEADS SPIN: The Anchor
31 HOW TO RELIEVE PEOPLE OF THEIR MILLIONS: Induction
32 WHY EVIL STRIKES HARDER THAN GOOD: Loss Aversion
33 WHY TEAMS ARE LAZY: Social Loafing
34 STUMPED BY A SHEET OF PAPER: Exponential Growth
35 CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM: Winner’s Curse
36 NEVER ASK A WRITER IF THE NOVEL IS AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL: Fundamental Attribution Error
37 WHY YOU SHOULDN’T BELIEVE IN THE STORK: False Causality
38 EVERYONE IS BEAUTIFUL AT THE TOP: Halo Effect
39 CONGRATULATIONS! YOU’VE WON RUSSIAN ROULETTE: Alternative Paths
40 FALSE PROPHETS: Forecast Illusion
41 THE DECEPTION OF SPECIFIC CASES: Conjunction Fallacy
42 IT’S NOT WHAT YOU SAY, BUT HOW YOU SAY IT: Framing
43 WHY WATCHING AND WAITING IS TORTURE: Action Bias
44 WHY YOU ARE EITHER THE SOLUTION – OR THE PROBLEM: Omission Bias
45 DON’T BLAME ME: Self-Serving Bias
46 BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR: Hedonic Treadmill
47 DO NOT MARVEL AT YOUR EXISTENCE: Self-Selection Bias
48 WHY EXPERIENCE CAN DAMAGE OUR JUDGEMENT: Association Bias
49 BE WARY WHEN THINGS GET OFF TO A GREAT START: Beginner’s Luck
50 SWEET LITTLE LIES: Cognitive Dissonance
51 LIVE EACH DAY AS IF IT WERE YOUR LAST – BUT ONLY ON SUNDAYS: Hyperbolic Discounting
52 ANY LAME EXCUSE: ‘Because’ Justification
53 DECIDE BETTER – DECIDE LESS: Decision Fatigue
54 WOULD YOU WEAR HITLER’S SWEATER?: Contagion Bias
55 WHY THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS AN AVERAGE WAR: The Problem with Averages
56 HOW BONUSES DESTROY MOTIVATION: Motivation Crowding
57 IF YOU HAVE NOTHING TO SAY, SAY NOTHING: Twaddle Tendency
58 HOW TO INCREASE THE AVERAGE IQ OF TWO STATES: Will Rogers Phenomenon
59 IF YOU HAVE AN ENEMY, GIVE HIM INFORMATION: Information Bias
60 HURTS SO GOOD: Effort Justification
61 WHY SMALL THINGS LOOM LARGE: The Law of Small Numbers
62 HANDLE WITH CARE: Expectations
63 SPEED TRAPS AHEAD!: Simple Logic
64 HOW TO EXPOSE A CHARLATAN: Forer Effect
65 VOLUNTEER WORK IS FOR THE BIRDS: Volunteer’s Folly
66 WHY YOU ARE A SLAVE TO YOUR EMOTIONS: Affect Heuristic
67 BE YOUR OWN HERETIC: Introspection Illusion
68 WHY YOU SHOULD SET FIRE TO YOUR SHIPS: Inability to Close Doors
69 DISREGARD THE BRAND NEW: Neomania
70 WHY PROPAGANDA WORKS: Sleeper Effect
71 WHY IT’S NEVER JUST A TWO-HORSE RACE: Alternative Blindness
72 WHY WE TAKE AIM AT YOUNG GUNS: Social Comparison Bias
73 WHY FIRST IMPRESSIONS DECEIVE: Primacy and Recency Effects
74 WHY YOU CAN’T BEAT HOME-MADE: Not-Invented-Here Syndrome
75 HOW TO PROFIT FROM THE IMPLAUSIBLE: The Black Swan
76 KNOWLEDGE IS NON-TRANSFERABLE: Domain Dependence
77 THE MYTH OF LIKE-MINDEDNESS: False-Consensus Effect
78 YOU WERE RIGHT ALL ALONG: Falsification of History
79 WHY YOU IDENTIFY WITH YOUR FOOTBALL TEAM: In-Group Out-Group Bias
80 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RISK AND UNCERTAINTY: Ambiguity Aversion
81 WHY YOU GO WITH THE STATUS QUO: Default Effect
82 WHY ‘LAST CHANCES’ MAKE US PANIC: Fear of Regret
83 HOW EYE-CATCHING DETAILS RENDER US BLIND: Salience Effect
84 WHY MONEY IS NOT NAKED: House-Money Effect
85 WHY NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTIONS DON’T WORK: Procrastination
86 BUILD YOUR OWN CASTLE: Envy
87 WHY YOU PREFER NOVELS TO STATISTICS: Personification
88 YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE OVERLOOKING: Illusion of Attention
89 HOT AIR: Strategic Misrepresentation
90 WHERE’S THE OFF SWITCH?: Overthinking
91 WHY YOU TAKE ON TOO MUCH: Planning Fallacy
92 THOSE WIELDING HAMMERS SEE ONLY NAILS: Deformation Professionnelle
93 MISSION ACCOMPLISHED: Zeigarnik Effect
94 THE BOAT MATTERS MORE THAN THE ROWING: Illusion of Skill
95 WHY CHECKLISTS DECEIVE YOU: Feature-Positive Effect
96 DRAWING THE BULL’S-EYE AROUND THE ARROW: Cherry-picking
97 THE STONE-AGE HUNT FOR SCAPEGOATS: Fallacy of the Single Cause
98 SPEED DEMONS MAKE SAFE DRIVERS: Intention-To-Treat Error
99 WHY YOU SHOULDN’T READ THE NEWS: News Illusion
Epilogue
Acknowledgments
Author Biography
A Note on Sources
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