Log In
Or create an account ->
Imperial Library
Home
About
News
Upload
Forum
Help
Login/SignUp
Index
Scenario Thinking
Contents
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
Tables
Acknowledgments
Introduction
HOW THIS BOOK IS ORGANIZED
KEY INNOVATIONS
OVERVIEW OF CONTENT AND APPROACH
Chapter 1: Why Should the Individual and the Organization Practice Scenario Thinking?
Chapter 2: Working with Scenarios: Introducing the Basic Method
Chapter 3: Incorporating Stakeholder Values and Facilitating Critique of Scenario Storylines
Chapter 4: Understanding Stakeholder Viewpoints
Chapter 5: Augmented Scenario Approaches: Delving Deeper and Stretching Wider
Chapter 6: Scenarios and Decision Analysis
Chapter 7: Creating Robust Strategies and Robust Organizations
Chapter 8: The Backwards Logic Method of Constructing Extreme Scenarios
Chapter 9: Diagnosing Organizational Receptiveness
CHAPTER 1
Why Should the Individual and the Organization Practice Scenario Thinking?
CONSTRAINED THINKING AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF THE 2000s
SOCIETAL CONSTRAINTS ON CHALLENGE AND THE USEFULNESS OF SCENARIO THINKING
WHAT ARE SCENARIO THINKING AND SCENARIO METHOD?
OUR APPROACH
WHAT ARE THE BUSINESS CREDENTIALS OF SCENARIO METHOD?
CRITIQUES OF SCENARIO PLANNING AND A DEFENSE
CHAPTER 2
Working with Scenarios: Introducing the Basic Method
SCENARIO THINKING AS A WAY OF BEING
ELEMENTS OF OUR FOCAL SCENARIO METHOD
The scenario process in action
GENERAL INTRODUCTION AND PREPARATION
Guiding principles
Ground rules
Preparation
Organizing a Scenario Process Workbook
For the future
THE SCENARIO PROCESS IN ACTION
Stage 1: Setting the scenario agenda
Stage 2: Determining the driving forces – working individually then as a group
Stage 3: Clustering the driving forces
Cause/effect
Chronology
Stage 4: Defining the cluster outcomes
Stage 5: Impact/uncertainty matrix
Horizontal axis: High/low impact
Vertical axis: High/low uncertainty
Stage 6: Framing the scenarios
Stage 7: Scoping the scenarios
Stage 8: Developing the scenarios
BEYOND SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT: STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING
CHAPTER 3
Incorporating Stakeholder Values and Facilitating Critique of Scenario Storylines
AVAILABILITY BIAS
FRAMING BIAS
The benefits of heterogeneity in opinions
ENHANCING STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS USING ROLE-PLAYING
GROUP DECISION-MAKING RESEARCH AND SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
SUMMARY
CHAPTER 4
Understanding Stakeholder Viewpoints
DEVELOPING SHARED UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS NOT KNOWN AND UNDERSTOOD
THE “SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF UNCERTAINTY”
COMMON ISSUE: SAME INTERPRETATION – DIFFERENT REASON
COMMON LANGUAGE: SAME WORDS – DIFFERENT MEANINGS
DIFFERENT PLACE OR AUDIENCE: CONFLICTING MESSAGES – SAME SPEAKER!
COPING WITH THE “MULTIPLE REALITIES” OF ORGANIZATIONAL LIFE
ACTIVELY SEEKING FURTHER REALITIES: BUILDING THE “BROAD” STAKEHOLDER APPROACH
ADVANCED SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT: VALUE JUDGMENTS AND THE CRITICAL SCENARIO METHOD
SCENARIOS AS TOOLS FOR CONSOLIDATION OR FOR CHANGE
SUMMARY
CHAPTER 5
Augmented Scenario Approaches: Delving Deeper and Stretching Wider
AUGMENTED SCENARIO METHOD 1: TOWARDS A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF CONTENT
Stage 2b (Additional): Determining the “Extreme outcomes” – Working as a group
Stage 6b (Alternative): Framing the Scenarios
Stage 7b (Alternative): Scoping the Scenarios
Stage 8: Developing the Scenarios is conducted as for the basic method
AUGMENTED SCENARIO METHOD 2: TOWARDS A BROADER UNDERSTANDING OF IMPACT
Stage 1b and/or Stage 7c (Additional): Stakeholder analysis
Stage 9 (Additional): Engaging with critical scenario method
SUMMARY
CHAPTER 6
Scenarios and Decision Analysis
COMBINING SCENARIO THINKING AND DECISION ANALYSIS
STAGE 1: FORMULATE SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: The rise of Internet business schools (Internet)
Scenario 2: Academic migration takes off (Migration)
STAGE 2: FORMULATE THE OBJECTIVES THAT YOU WISH TO ACHIEVE IN YOUR STRATEGIC ACTIONS
STAGE 3: DESIGN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
STAGE 4: FOR EACH OBJECTIVE, RANK EACH STRATEGY AGAINST EACH SCENARIO FROM BEST TO WORST
STAGE 5: FOR EACH OBJECTIVE, RANK ALL STRATEGY–SCENARIO COMBINATIONS FROM BEST TO WORST
STAGE 6: COMPUTE THE SUM-OF-RANKS FOR EACH STRATEGY AND PROVISIONALLY SELECT THE BEST-PERFORMING STRATEGY
CHAPTER 7
Creating Robust Strategies and Robust Organizations
HINDSIGHT BIAS
THE WAITER’S DILEMMA AND CONFIRMATION BIAS
WHEN THE UNEXPECTED OCCURS
ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN: LESSONS FROM CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCHERS
Strategic defense
Strategic opportunism
EVALUATING STRATEGIES AGAINST SCENARIOS
SUMMARY
CHAPTER 8
The Backwards Logic Method of Constructing Extreme Scenarios
BROADENING THE SCOPE OF CONSTRUCTED SCENARIOS
CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS USING BACKWARDS LOGIC
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
SUMMARY
CHAPTER 9
Diagnosing Organizational Receptiveness
INTERVIEWING MEMBERS OF THE TOP TEAM
USING JANIS AND MANN’S THEORY TO ANALYZE THE INTERVIEW MATERIAL
EXAMPLES OF SCENARIO PRACTICE
Case study 1
Case study 2
SUMMARY
Summary
Appendix
SUGGESTED TIMETABLE FOR A 24-HOUR SCENARIO PROJECT
References
Index
← Prev
Back
Next →
← Prev
Back
Next →