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Index
Title Page
Epigraph
Table of Contents
AUTHOR’S PREFACE
CHAPTER 1 - THE LADY TASTING TEA
THE COOPERATIVE NATURE OF SCIENCE
THE DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS
CHAPTER 2 - THE SKEW DISTRIBUTIONS
THE GALTON BIOMETRICAL LABORATORY
CORRELATION AND REGRESSION
DISTRIBUTIONS AND PARAMETERS
THE PLAN OF BIOMETRIKA
CHAPTER 3 - THAT DEAR MR. GOSSET
THE BIRTH OF “STUDENT”
“STUDENT”’S T-TEST
CHAPTER 4 - RAKING OVER THE MUCK HEAP
FISHER VERSUS KARL PEARSON
FISHER THE “FASCIST”
STATISTICAL METHODS FOR RESEARCH WORKERS
ROTHAMSTED AND AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENTS
CHAPTER 5 - “STUDIES IN CROP VARIATION”
“STUDIES IN CROP VARIATION. I”
GALTON’S REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GENERALIZED
RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED EXPERIMENTS
FISHER’S ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
DEGREES OF FREEDOM
“STUDIES IN CROP VARIATION. III”
CHAPTER 6 - “THE HUNDRED-YEAR FLOOD”
THE DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREMES
POLITICAL MURDER
CHAPTER 7 - FISHER TRIUMPHANT
THE FISHERIAN VERSUS THE PEARSONIAN VIEW OF STATISTICS
FISHER’S MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHODS
ITERATIVE ALGORITHMS
CHAPTER 8 - THE DOSE THAT KILLS
PROBIT ANALYSIS
BLISS IN SOVIET LENINGRAD DURING THE STALIN TERRORS
CHAPTER 9 - THE BELL-SHAPED CURVE
WHAT IS THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM?
VIVA LA MUERTE!
FROM LINDEBERG-LÉVY TO U-STATISTICS
HOEFFDING IN BERLIN
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
CHAPTER 10 - TESTING THE GOODNESS OF FIT
CHAOS THEORY AND GOODNESS OF FIT
PEARSON’S GOODNESS OF FIT TEST
TESTING WHETHER THE LADY CAN TASTE A DIFFERENCE IN THE TEA
FISHER’S USE OF P-VALUES
JERZY NEYMAN’S MATHEMATICAL EDUCATION
NEYMAN’S STYLE OF MATHEMATICS
CHAPTER 11 - HYPOTHESIS TESTING
WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
THE FREQUENTIST DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY
CHAPTER 12 - THE CONFIDENCE TRICK
NEYMAN’S SOLUTION
PROBABILITY VERSUS CONFIDENCE LEVEL
CHAPTER 13 - THE BAYESIAN HERESY
QUESTIONS ABOUT “INVERSE PROBABILITY”
THE BAYESIAN HIERARCHAL MODEL
PERSONAL PROBABILITY
CHAPTER 14 - THE MOZART OF MATHEMATICS
KOLMOGOROV, THE MAN
KOLMOGOROV’S WORK IN MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS
WHAT IS PROBABILITY IN REAL LIFE?
AFTER NOTE ON THE FAILURES OF SOVIET STATISTICS
CHAPTER 15 - THE WORM’S-EYE VIEW
WORKING FOR K. P.
WAR WORK
CHAPTER 16 - DOING AWAY WITH PARAMETERS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS
UNSOLVED PROBLEMS
CHAPTER 17 - WHEN PART IS BETTER THAN THE WHOLE
THE NEW DEAL AND SAMPLING
JEROME CORNFIELD
ECONOMIC INDICES
CHAPTER 18 - DOES SMOKING CAUSE CANCER?
IS THERE SUCH A THING AS CAUSE AND EFFECT?
MATERIAL IMPLICATION
CORNFIELD’S SOLUTION
SMOKING AND CANCER VERSUS AGENT ORANGE
PUBLICATION BIAS
FISHER’S SOLUTION
CHAPTER 19 - IF YOU WANT THE BEST PERSON …
THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF WOMEN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS
WOMEN IN THEORETICAL STATISTICS
CHAPTER 20 - JUST A PLAIN TEXAS FARM BOY
STATISTICS AT PRINCETON
STATISTICS AND THE WAR EFFORT
STATISTICS IN ABSTRACTION
CHAPTER 21 - A GENIUS IN THE FAMILY
I. J. GOOD
PERSI DIACONIS
CHAPTER 22 - THE PICASSO OF STATISTICS
TUKEY’S VERSATILITY
CHAPTER 23 - DEALING WITH CONTAMINATION
BOX BECOMES A STATISTICIAN
BOX IN THE UNITED STATES
BOX AND COX
CHAPTER 24 - THE MAN WHO REMADE INDUSTRY
DEMING’S MESSAGE TO SENIOR MANAGEMENT
THE NATURE OF QUALITY CONTROL
DEMING ON HYPOTHESIS TESTING
CHAPTER 25 - ADVICE FROM THE LADY IN BLACK
STATISTICS AT GUINNESS
UNEXPECTED VARIABILITY
ABSTRACT MATHEMATICS VERSUS USEFUL STATISTICS
CHAPTER 26 - THE MARCH OF THE MARTINGALES
EARLY THEORETICAL WORK
MARTINGALES IN CONGESTIVE HEART FAILURE STUDIES
CHAPTER 27 - THE INTENT TO TREAT
COX’S FORMULATION
BOX’S APPROACH
DEMING’S VIEW
COCHRAN’S OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES
RUBIN’S MODELS
CHAPTER 28 - THE COMPUTER TURNS UPON ITSELF
THE GLIVENKO-CANTELLI LEMMA
EFRON’S “BOOTSTRAP”
RESAMPLING AND OTHER COMPUTER-INTENSIVE METHODS
THE TRIUMPH OF STATISTICAL MODELS
CHAPTER 29 - THE IDOL WITH FEET OF CLAY
THE STATISTICIANS LOSE CONTROL
HAS THE STATISTICAL REVOLUTION RUN ITS COURSE?
CAN STATISTICAL MODELS BE USED TO MAKE DECISIONS?
WHAT IS THE MEANING OF PROBABILITY WHEN APPLIED TO REAL LIFE?
DO PEOPLE REALLY UNDERSTAND PROBABILITY?
IS PROBABILITY REALLY NECESSARY?
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY?
AFTERWORD
TIMELINE
BIBLIOGRAPHY
INDEX
Notes
Copyright Page
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