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Index
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Introduction: Two Kinds of Error
Part I: Finding Noise
1. Crime and Noisy Punishment
2. A Noisy System
3. Singular Decisions
Part II: Your Mind Is a Measuring Instrument
4. Matters of Judgment
5. Measuring Error
6. The Analysis of Noise
7. Occasion Noise
8. How Groups Amplify Noise
Part III: Noise in Predictive Judgments
9. Judgments and Models
10. Noiseless Rules
11. Objective Ignorance
12. The Valley of the Normal
Part IV: How Noise Happens
13. Heuristics, Biases, and Noise
14. The Matching Operation
15. Scales
16. Patterns
17. The Sources of Noise
Part V: Improving Judgments
18. Better Judges for Better Judgments
19. Debiasing and Decision Hygiene
20. Sequencing Information in Forensic Science
21. Selection and Aggregation in Forecasting
22. Guidelines in Medicine
23. Defining the Scale in Performance Ratings
24. Structure in Hiring
25. The Mediating Assessments Protocol
Part VI: Optimal Noise
26. The Costs of Noise Reduction
27. Dignity
28. Rules or Standards?
Review and Conclusion: Taking Noise Seriously
Epilogue: A Less Noisy World
Appendix A: How to Conduct a Noise Audit
Appendix B: A Checklist for a Decision Observer
Appendix C: Correcting Predictions
Notes
Index
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
Also by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein
About the Publisher
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