Guide to Decision Making by Drummond, Helga -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Contents Title Copyright Dedication Acknowledgements Introduction Chapter 1: Illusions of Control: The Confidence Trap

Illusions of Control The Confidence Trap Success and Luck: The Deadly Cocktail Bunker Mentality Avoiding the Overconfidence Trap Risk as Choice

Chapter 2: Blinkered Vision: The Judgment Trap

Look no Further: Confirmation Traps Why First Impressions Matter: Anchoring Traps Seen it All Before: Analogy Traps Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Availability Traps Alluring Images: Vividness Traps Too Good to Lose? Emotional Rollercoaster: Instant-Response Traps Two Dead Fish: Expectation Traps Expectations are Reality Surprise, Surprise . . . Avoiding Judgmental Traps All that Glitters: Evaluating Opportunity Separating Heart and Head When not to Make a Decision “Only the Paranoid Survive”

Chapter 3: Ghosts and Shadows: Where is Reality?

What is a Problem? What Do Hierarchies Really Do? Solving the Wrong Problem The Invented Reality Rushing a Solution Solving Problems that Do not Exist Subtle Movements Corporate Myopia Reality as Myth The Ruling Myth Mythical Rights and Wrongs Go Slow to Go Fast The Problem Behind the Problem Listening to Galileo: Conceptual Blockbusting Second-Order Thinking Stop Problems Before they Start Solve the Right Problem Apply the “Because” Test Finding the Lobster: The Importance of Mind States Expecting the Unexpected Fact or Fiction? Testing Reality

Chapter 4: Gorilla in the Room: Information and Decision-Making

How Do We Know What We Think We Know? Where the Unexpected Come From Risk as a Mirror of Imagination Perception is Reality Gorilla in the Room Complicit Computers Liars in Service of Truth Shut the Toolbox and Open the Mind Going into “Lockdown” What is the Question? Information-Gathering Must Have a Point The Reality of Planning Ask Why? Not Who?

Chapter 5: Conspiracies of Optimism: Group Dynamics

Problems of Status Impact of Group Culture Groupthink: Conspiracies of Optimism Risky Shift Groups and Myopia Managing Groups Changing Group Culture Effective Leadership As Others See us Critical Decisions Require Critical Thinking Refreshing the Group

Chapter 6: Shifting Tides: Power and Politics in Decision-Making

The Dynamics of Power The Problem with Rules and Instructions Low Power Inevitable Tensions The Politics of the Deadly Ds Thinking the Unthinkable The Art of the Possible: Managing Power and Politics Getting the Approach Right Managing Conflict Ending the Debate The Importance of Authority Missing Links The Old, Old Story

Chapter 7: Predictable Surprises

Today’s Solution: Tomorrow’s Problem When Solutions Dictate or Distract Winner’s Curse The Curse of Establishment Status The Tragedy of the Commons Herding The Missing Hero Vicious Circle or Exploding Cluster Self-Fulfilling and Self-Destroying Prophecies Paradoxes Anticipate or Trip . . . . . . And Query the Control Dials If the Front Door is Closed . . . Loose-Tight Virtues Dare to Act Counter-Intuitively Leaving the Party Symbolic Importance When Being Wrong is Right

Chapter 8: The March of Folly: The Escalation Trap

Too Much Promise Games People Play Escalating IT A Life of their Own Denial and Delusion Escalation of Commitment Fear of Failure – and Combatting it Waste not Want not Sunk Costs A Question of Framing Public Image Preventing Escalation Recognising and Reacting to the Larger Signs Look to the Future Allowing for Fallibility Going for it Letting it Lie The Role of Budgets Stepping Back

Chapter 9: Decisionless Decisions: The Continuity Trap

Decisionless Decisions Waiting for “Lock-In” Doing Nothing is not an Option Comfort Zones and Sacred Cows The Cost of Entrapment Trapped by Human Nature

Chapter 10: Risk a Little, Gain a Lot: Options Thinking

Falling Forwards The Business Options Other Options . . . . . . And a Warning Value Creation – and Destruction Exercising Decisions The Philosophy of War

Closing Thoughts Index