[Incerto 01] • Fooled by Randomness · The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Title Page Dedication Preface Acknowledgments for the Updated Second Edition Chapter Summaries Prologue PART I: SOLON’S WARNING

Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction

One IF YOU’RE SO RICH, WHY AREN’T YOU SO SMART?

NERO TULIP

Hit by Lightning Temporary Sanity Modus Operandi No Work Ethics There Are Always Secrets

JOHN THE HIGH-YIELD TRADER

An Overpaid Hick

THE RED-HOT SUMMER

Serotonin and Randomness

YOUR DENTIST IS RICH, VERY RICH

Two A BIZARRE ACCOUNTING METHOD

ALTERNATIVE HISTORY

Russian Roulette Possible Worlds An Even More Vicious Roulette

SMOOTH PEER RELATIONS

Salvation via Aeroflot Solon Visits Regine’s Nightclub

GEORGE WILL IS NO SOLON: ON COUNTERINTUITIVE TRUTHS

Humiliated in Debates A Different Kind of Earthquake Proverbs Galore Risk Managers Epiphenomena Europlayboy Mathematics The Tools Monte Carlo Mathematics

Three A MATHEMATICAL MEDITATION ON HISTORY

FUN IN MY ATTIC

Making History Zorglubs Crowding the Attic Denigration of History The Stove Is Hot Skills in Predicting Past History My Solon

DISTILLED THINKING ON YOUR PALMPILOT

Breaking News Shiller Redux Gerontocracy

PHILOSTRATUS IN MONTE CARLO : ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOISE AND INFORMATION

Four RANDOMNESS, NONSENSE, AND THE SCIENTIFIC INTELLECTUAL

RANDOMNESS AND THE VERB

Reverse Turing Test The Father of All Pseudothinkers

MONTE CARLO POETRY

Five SURVIVAL OF THE LEAST FIT–CAN EVOLUTION BE FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS?

CARLOS THE EMERGING-MARKETS WIZARD

The Good Years Averaging Down Lines in the Sand

JOHN THE HIGH-YIELD TRADER

The Quant Who Knew Computers and Equations The Traits They Shared

A REVIEW OF MARKET FOOLS OF RANDOMNESS CONSTANTS NAIVE EVOLUTIONARY THEORIES

Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness?

Six SKEWNESS AND ASYMMETRY

THE MEDIAN IS NOT THE MESSAGE BULL AND BEAR ZOOLOGY

An Arrogant Twenty-nine-year-old Son Rare Events Symmetry and Science

ALMOST EVERYBODY IS ABOVE AVERAGE THE RARE-EVENT FALLACY

The Mother of All Deceptions Why Don’t Statisticians Detect Rare Events? A Mischievous Child Replaces the Black Balls

Seven THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION

FROM BACON TO HUME

Cygnus Atratus Niederhoffer

SIR KARL’S PROMOTING AGENT

Location, Location Popper’s Answer Open Society Nobody Is Perfect Induction and Memory Pascal’s Wager

THANK YOU, SOLON

PART II: MONKEYS ON TYPEWRITERS

Survivorship and Other Biases IT DEPENDS ON THE NUMBER OF MONKEYS VICIOUS REAL LIFE THIS SECTION

Eight TOO MANY MILLIONAIRES NEXT DOOR

HOW TO STOP THE STING OF FAILURE

Somewhat Happy Too Much Work You’re a Failure

DOUBLE SURVIVORSHIP BIASES

More Experts Visibility Winners It’s a Bull Market

A GURU’S OPINION

Nine IT IS EASIER TO BUY AND SELL THAN FRY AN EGG

FOOLED BY NUMBERS

Placebo Investors Nobody Has to Be Competent Regression to the Mean Ergodicity

LIFE IS COINCIDENTAL

The Mysterious Letter An Interrupted Tennis Game Reverse Survivors The Birthday Paradox It’s a Small World! Data Mining, Statistics, and Charlatanism The Best Book I Have Ever Read! The Backtester A More Unsettling Extension The Earnings Season: Fooled by the Results

COMPARATIVE LUCK

Cancer Cures Professor Pearson Goes to Monte Carlo (Literally): Randomness Does Not Look Random! The Dog That Did Not Bark: On Biases in Scientific Knowledge

I HAVE NO CONCLUSION

Ten LOSER TAKES ALL—ON THE NONLINEARITIES OF LIFE

THE SANDPILE EFFECT

Enter Randomness Learning to Type

MATHEMATICS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE REAL WORLD

The Science of Networks Our Brain Buridan’s Donkey or the Good Side of Randomness

WHEN IT RAINS, IT POURS

Eleven RANDOMNESS AND OUR MIND: WE ARE PROBABILITY BLIND

PARIS OR THE BAHAMAS? SOME ARCHITECTURAL CONSIDERATIONS BEWARE THE PHILOSOPHER BUREAUCRAT

Satisficing

FLAWED, NOT JUST IMPERFECT

Kahneman and Tversky

WHERE IS NAPOLEON WHEN WE NEED HIM?

“I’m As Good As My Last Trade” and Other Heuristics Degree in a Fortune Cookie Two Systems of Reasoning

WHY WE DON’T MARRY THE FIRST DATE

Our Natural Habitat Fast and Frugal Neurobiologists Too Kafka in a Courtroom An Absurd World Examples of Biases in Understanding Probability We Are Option Blind

PROBABILITIES AND THE MEDIA (MORE JOURNALISTS)

CNBC at Lunchtime You Should Be Dead by Now The Bloomberg Explanations Filtering Methods We Do Not Understand Confidence Levels An Admission

PART III: WAX IN MY EARS

Living with Randomitis I AM NOT SO INTELLIGENT WITTGENSTEIN’S RULER THE ODYSSEAN MUTE COMMAND

Twelve GAMBLERS’ TICKS AND PIGEONS IN A BOX

TAXI-CAB ENGLISH AND CAUSALITY THE SKINNER PIGEON EXPERIMENT PHILOSTRATUS REDUX

Thirteen CARNEADES COMES TO ROME: ON PROBABILITY AND SKEPTICISM

CARNEADES COMES TO ROME

Probability, the Child of Skepticism

MONSIEUR DE NORPOIS’ OPINIONS

Path Dependence of Beliefs

COMPUTING INSTEAD OF THINKING FROM FUNERAL TO FUNERAL

Fourteen BACCHUS ABANDONS ANTONY

NOTES ON JACKIE O. ’S FUNERAL RANDOMNESS AND PERSONAL ELEGANCE

Beware the London Traffic Jams

Epilogue SOLON TOLD YOU SO Postscript THREE AFTERTHOUGHTS IN THE SHOWER

FIRST THOUGHT: THE INVERSE SKILLS PROBLEM SECOND THOUGHT: ON SOME ADDITIONAL BENEFITS OF RANDOMNESS

Uncertainty and Happiness The Scrambling of Messages

THIRD THOUGHT: STANDING ON ONE LEG

Acknowledgments for the First Edition A Trip to the Library: Notes and Reading Recommendations Notes References About the Author Also by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copyright

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