Scenarios by Heijden, Kees van der -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Title Page Copyright Page Dedication Preface

A CONVERSATION OVERVIEW INFLUENTIAL THINKERS HOW TO USE THIS BOOK

Part One - The Context

OVERVIEW Chapter One - 1965 to 1990: Five Discoveries at Shell

ROBUST DECISION MAKING STRETCHING MENTAL MODELS LEADS TO DISCOVERIES ENHANCING CORPORATE PERCEPTION ENERGISING MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS AS A LEADERSHIP TOOL

Chapter Two - Introduction to Scenario-based Planning

WHY PLAN? SCENARIO-BASED PLANNING IS “LEARNING” THE PURPOSE OF SCENARIO-BASED PLANNING HOW POPULAR IS SCENARIO-BASED PLANNING?

Chapter Three - Three Competing Paradigms in Strategic Management

THE RATIONALIST PARADIGM EVOLUTIONARY PARADIGM PROCESSUAL PARADIGM THE LEARNING LOOP GROUP LEARNING THE INTEGRATIVE MODEL

Part Two - The Principles of Scenario-based Planning

OVERVIEW Chapter Four - Strategising

STRATEGY AND LEARNING ORTHODOXY AND REFRAMING STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT

Chapter Five - The Business Idea of an Organisation

PROFIT POTENTIAL DISTINCTIVE COMPETENCIES SYSTEMIC STRUCTURE OF THE BUSINESS IDEA EXAMPLES OF BUSINESS IDEAS LEVELS OF BUSINESS IDEAS CONSIDERING THE BUSINESS IDEA IN THE MANAGEMENT TEAM VALUE CREATION THROUGH TRUST BUILDING BUILDING FOR THE FUTURE SUMMARY OF MAIN POINTS OF THE BUSINESS IDEA CONCEPT

Chapter Six - The Uncertain Environment

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT COMPLEXITY FORMS OF UNCERTAINTY PREDICTABLE RISK STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY THEORIES OF STRUCTURE FORECASTING VS. SCENARIOS

Chapter Seven - Scenario Analysis

DEFINITION THE STRATEGISING PURPOSE THE PROCESS FRAMING OF SCENARIOS

Chapter Eight - Scenarios and the Strategic Conversation

ORGANISATIONAL ASPECTS INDIVIDUAL PERCEPTION ORGANISATIONS AS COGNITIVE SYSTEMS SCENARIOS AS INSTITUTIONAL PERCEPTION DEVICES EFFECTIVE SCENARIOS BECOMING AWARE OF EARLY SIGNALS

Part Three - The Practice of Scenario-based Planning

OVERVIEW Chapter Nine - The Practitioner’s Art

PURPOSE SETTING THE AGENDA THE SWOT WORKSHOP INDIVIDUAL INTERVIEWS INTERNAL AND CONTEXTUAL DATA FEEDBACK THE HORIZON YEAR

Chapter Ten - Articulation of the Business Idea

SURFACING A BUSINESS IDEA IN A MANAGEMENT TEAM ELEMENTS OF THE BUSINESS IDEA INITIAL DATA REQUIREMENT THE PROCESS THE FACILITATOR SUMMARY OF THE BUSINESS IDEA SURFACING PROCESS

Chapter Eleven - Competitive Positioning

A STRUCTURED DISCUSSION IN THE MANAGEMENT TEAM SUMMARY OF MAIN POINTS OF COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Chapter Twelve - Scenario Development

SCENARIO TEAM INTRODUCING NOVELTY DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS A FEW USEFUL DEFINITIONS FIRST DATA ANALYSIS SCENARIO STRUCTURING DEVELOPING THE STORYLINES NEXT STEPS SCENARIO RESEARCH SPECIAL TYPES OF SCENARIOS

Chapter Thirteen - Option Planning

DEVELOPING STRATEGIC DIRECTION MANAGING THE OPTION SET OPTION EVALUATION STAKEHOLDER TESTING OF OPTIONS INTEGRATION OF STRATEGY

Part Four - Institutionalising Scenario-based Planning

OVERVIEW Chapter Fourteen - The Management of Change

ACTING ON THE SCENARIOS CONDITIONS FOR SUCCESSFUL CHANGE MANAGEMENT

Chapter Fifteen - Planning Process

THE PLANNING CYCLE HYGIENE FACTORS FIVE LEVELS OF PLANNING IN A PLANNING CYCLE, OVERVIEW STRATEGIC PLANNING MASTERPLANNING PROJECT PLANNING BUDGET PLANNING APPRAISAL

Chapter Sixteen - The Informal Strategic Conversation

SCENARIOS AND THE INFORMAL EXCHANGE OF VIEWS TREATING ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING PROBLEMS PERSEVERANCE

Conclusion References Index