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Index
Cover
Title Page
Table of Contents
Foreword
Preface
SECTION One: Basics of Asset Allocation
CHAPTER 1: What Is an Asset Class?
STABLE AGGREGATION
INVESTABLE
INTERNALLY HOMOGENEOUS
EXTERNALLY HETEROGENEOUS
EXPECTED UTILITY
SELECTION SKILL
COST-EFFECTIVE ACCESS
POTENTIAL ASSET CLASSES
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 2: Fundamentals of Asset Allocation
THE FOUNDATION: PORTFOLIO THEORY
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION
REFERENCES
NOTES
SECTION Two: Fallacies of Asset Allocation
CHAPTER 3: The Importance of Asset Allocation
FALLACY: ASSET ALLOCATION DETERMINES MORE THAN 90 PERCENT OF PERFORMANCE
THE DETERMINANTS OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
THE BEHAVIORAL BIAS OF POSITIVE ECONOMICS
THE SAMUELSON DICTUM
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 4: Time Diversification
FALLACY: TIME DIVERSIFIES RISK
SAMUELSON'S BET
TIME, VOLATILITY, AND PROBABILITY OF LOSS
TIME AND EXPECTED UTILITY
WITHIN-HORIZON RISK
A PREFERENCE-FREE CONTRADICTION TO TIME DIVERSIFICATION
THE BOTTOM LINE
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 5: Error Maximization
FALLACY: OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIOS ARE HYPERSENSITIVE TO INPUT ERRORS
THE INTUITIVE ARGUMENT
THE EMPIRICAL ARGUMENT
THE ANALYTICAL ARGUMENT
THE BOTTOM LINE
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 6: Factors
FALLACY: FACTORS OFFER SUPERIOR DIVERSIFICATION AND NOISE REDUCTION
WHAT IS A FACTOR?
EQUIVALENCE OF ASSET CLASS AND FACTOR DIVERSIFICATION
NOISE REDUCTION
WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE US?
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 7: 1/N
FALLACY: EQUALLY WEIGHTED PORTFOLIOS ARE SUPERIOR TO OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIOS
THE CASE FOR 1/N
SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN DEFENSE OF OPTIMIZATION
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS WITH 1/N
BROKEN CLOCK
THE BOTTOM LINE
REFERENCES
NOTE
SECTION Three: Challenges to Asset Allocation
CHAPTER 8: Necessary Conditions for Mean-Variance Analysis
THE CHALLENGE
DEPARTURES FROM ELLIPTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS
DEPARTURES FROM QUADRATIC UTILITY
FULL-SCALE OPTIMIZATION
THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY
APPLYING FULL-SCALE OPTIMIZATION
SUMMARY
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 9: Constraints
THE CHALLENGE
WRONG AND ALONE
MEAN-VARIANCE-TRACKING ERROR OPTIMIZATION
REFERENCES
NOTE
CHAPTER 10: Currency Risk
THE CHALLENGE
WHY HEDGE?
WHY NOT HEDGE EVERYTHING?
LINEAR HEDGING STRATEGIES
NONLINEAR HEDGING STRATEGIES
ECONOMIC INTUITION
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 11: Illiquidity
THE CHALLENGE
SHADOW ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
EXPECTED RETURN AND RISK OF SHADOW ALLOCATIONS
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
CASE STUDY
THE BOTTOM LINE
APPENDIX
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 12: Risk in the Real World
THE CHALLENGE
END-OF-HORIZON EXPOSURE TO LOSS
WITHIN-HORIZON EXPOSURE TO LOSS
REGIMES
THE BOTTOM LINE
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 13: Estimation Error
THE CHALLENGE
TRADITIONAL APPROACHES TO ESTIMATION ERROR
STABILITY-ADJUSTED OPTIMIZATION
BUILDING A STABILITY-ADJUSTED RETURN DISTRIBUTION
DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
THE BOTTOM LINE
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 14: Leverage versus Concentration
THE CHALLENGE
LEVERAGE IN THEORY
LEVERAGE IN PRACTICE
THE BOTTOM LINE
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 15: Rebalancing
THE CHALLENGE
THE DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING SOLUTION
THE MARKOWITZ–VAN DIJK HEURISTIC
THE BOTTOM LINE
REFERENCES
NOTES
CHAPTER 16: Regime Shifts
THE CHALLENGE
PREDICTABILITY OF RETURN AND RISK
REGIME-SENSITIVE ALLOCATION
TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION
THE BOTTOM LINE
APPENDIX: BAUM-WELCH ALGORITHM
REFERENCES
NOTES
SECTION Four: Addendum
CHAPTER 17: Key Takeaways
CHAPTER 18: Statistical and Theoretical Concepts
DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS RETURNS
ARITHMETIC AND GEOMETRIC AVERAGE RETURNS
STANDARD DEVIATION
CORRELATION
COVARIANCE
COVARIANCE INVERTIBILITY
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
MAPPING HIGH-FREQUENCY STATISTICS ONTO LOW-FREQUENCY STATISTICS
PORTFOLIOS
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
HIGHER MOMENTS
THE LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION
ELLIPTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS
PROBABILITY OF LOSS
VALUE AT RISK
UTILITY THEORY
SAMPLE UTILITY FUNCTIONS
ALTERNATIVE UTILITY FUNCTIONS
EXPECTED UTILITY
CERTAINTY EQUIVALENTS
MEAN-VARIANCE ANALYSIS FOR MORE THAN TWO ASSETS
EQUIVALENCE OF MEAN-VARIANCE ANALYSIS AND EXPECTED UTILITY MAXIMIZATION
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
BOOTSTRAP SIMULATION
REFERENCES
NOTE
CHAPTER 19: Glossary of Terms
Index
End User License Agreement
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