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Index
Copyright Page
Contents
Preface
Acknowledgements
Chapter 1: Sense and the City
Can you be your own investment manager?
From gentlemen to players
Chapter 2: Basics of Investment
Before you begin
Review financial risks outside your investment portfolio
Investment choices
Conventional investment strategies
Table 1: Percentage distribution of net assets by long-horizon funds, 2015
Realistic expectations
Benchmarking performance
Table 2: CalPERS returns by asset class (% p.a.)
The effects of compounding
Chapter 3: Investment Options
Sense about shares
Basics of bonds
Realities of real estate
Facts about funds
Chapter 4: Efficient Markets
Efficient markets and asset values
Illuminating but not true
Information asymmetry
Strategic trading, moral hazard and market manipulation
Investment strategies for imperfectly efficient markets
Chapter 5: The Mind of the Market
Market psychology
When the market loses its mind
The power of conventional thinking
The prevalence of short-term thinking
The malign effect on corporate performance
The intelligent investor’s advantage
Chapter 6: In Search of Fundamental Value
Accounting for earnings
Table 3: Current PE ratios, various US sectors, January 2016
Table 4: CAPE in different equity markets, July 2015
Creative accounting
Cash is king
Competitive advantage
Chapter 7: Risk and Reward
Risk and uncertainty
Subjective expected utility
Think probabilities
Comparing distributions
Table 5: The cumulative frequency distribution from tossing a coin
My ship came in
Diminishing marginal utility
Mind your portfolio
Table 6: Value of alternative portfolios depending on the fate of the shipbuilding nationalisation bill of 1976 (£)
The capital asset pricing model
Chapter 8: A World of Unknowns
Unknown unknowns
Narratives and patterns
Mirages, systems and hot hands
Table 7: Percentage of US mutual funds in each performance quartile, 2009–12, which subsequently achieved above-median performance in 2012–15
Models and their limits
Forecasts and their limits
The China effect is ‘in the price’
Approaches to risk
Chapter 9: Modern Developments in Financial Markets
Derivatives
When bonds were no longer boring
Structured products
Hedge funds
Other alternative assets
Chapter 10: The Conventional Investor
Establish your portfolio
Table 8: Save now, spend later
Pay less
The conventional investor’s portfolio
Chapter 11: The Intelligent Investor’s Strategy
Developing a strategy
Reviewing your goals
Diversification is the key to managing risk
The illusory security of cash and bonds
Contrary thinking
Market timing
Asset allocation
Chapter 12: Intelligent Investment Choices
Diversify
Fund selection
Property
Stock picking
Stock selection
Chapter 13: The Customers’ Yachts
Glossary
Bookshelves and Bookmarks
Bibliography
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