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Index
PART 1: INTRODUCTION
The Secrets to Great Decision-Making
How to Use This Book
PART 2: COGNITIVE BIASES
The Mental Errors That Distort Your Thinking
1. Confirmation Bias
2. Self-Serving Bias
3. Availability Bias
4. Survivorship Bias
5. Loss Aversion
6. Status Quo Bias
7. Anchoring Bias
8. Hyperbolic Discounting
9. Dunning-Kruger Effect
10. Bias Blind Spot
PART 3: LOGICAL FALLACIES
The Reasoning Flaws That Derail Your Judgment
1. Hasty Generalization
2. False Cause
3. False Dilemma
4. Middle Ground
5. Slippery Slope
6. Sunk Cost Fallacy
7. Planning Fallacy
8. Appeal to Popularity
9. Appeal to Authority
10. The Fallacy Fallacy
PART 4: MENTAL MODELS
The Thinking Tools of the Mind
1. System 1 and System 2
2. The Map Is Not the Territory
3. The 80/20 Principle
4. The Circle of Competence
5. Opportunity Cost
6. The Eisenhower Matrix
7. First Principles Thinking
8. Second-Level Thinking
9. Inversion
10. Bayesian Thinking
11. Multiplying by Zero
12. Occam’s Razor
13. Hanlon’s Razor
14. Incentives
15. Nudging
16. Conformity
17. Evolution by Natural Selection
18. Homeostasis
19. Fight or Flight
20. Entropy
21. Margin of Safety
22. Antifragility
23. Newton’s Laws of Motion
24. Algorithms
25. Compounding
PART 5: FINAL WORDS
A Little Wiser Every Day
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Acknowledgments
Endnotes
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