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Index
ALGORITHMIC TRADING
CONTENTS
PREFACE
CHAPTER 1 Backtesting and Automated Execution
The Importance of Backtesting
Common Pitfalls of Backtesting
Look-ahead Bias
Data-Snooping Bias and the Beauty of Linearity
Stock Splits and Dividend Adjustments
Survivorship Bias in Stock Database
Primary versus Consolidated Stock Prices
Venue Dependence of Currency Quotes
Short-Sale Constraints
Futures Continuous Contracts
Futures Close versus Settlement Prices
Statistical Significance of Backtesting: Hypothesis Testing
When Not to Backtest a Strategy
Will a Backtest Be Predictive of Future Returns?
Choosing a Backtesting and Automated Execution Platform
How Good Is Your Programming Skill?
Can Backtesting and Execution Use the Same Program?
What Type of Asset Classes or Strategies Does the Platform Support?
Does the Platform Have Complex Event Processing?
CHAPTER 2 The Basics of Mean Reversion
Mean Reversion and Stationarity
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
Hurst Exponent and Variance Ratio Test
Half-Life of Mean Reversion
A Linear Mean-Reverting Trading Strategy
Cointegration
Cointegrated Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
Johansen Test
Linear Mean-Reverting Trading on a Portfolio
Pros and Cons of Mean-Reverting Strategies
CHAPTER 3 Implementing Mean Reversion Strategies
Trading Pairs Using Price Spreads, Log Price Spreads, or Ratios
Bollinger Bands
Does Scaling-in Work?
Kalman Filter as Dynamic Linear Regression
Kalman Filter as Market-Making Model
The Danger of Data Errors
CHAPTER 4 Mean Reversion of Stocks and ETFs
The Difficulties of Trading Stock Pairs
Trading ETF Pairs (and Triplets)
Intraday Mean Reversion: Buy-on-Gap Model
Arbitrage between an ETF and Its Component Stocks
Cross-Sectional Mean Reversion: A Linear Long-Short Model
CHAPTER 5 Mean Reversion of Currencies and Futures
Trading Currency Cross-Rates
Rollover Interests in Currency Trading
Trading Futures Calendar Spread
Roll Returns, Backwardation, and Contango
Do Calendar Spreads Mean-Revert?
Futures Intermarket Spreads
Volatility Futures versus Equity Index Futures
CHAPTER 6 Interday Momentum Strategies
Tests for Time Series Momentum
Time Series Strategies
Extracting Roll Returns through Future versus ETF Arbitrage
Volatility Futures versus Equity Index Futures: Redux
Cross-Sectional Strategies
News Sentiment as a Fundamental Factor
Mutual Funds Asset Fire Sale and Forced Purchases
Pros and Cons of Momentum Strategies
CHAPTER 7 Intraday Momentum Strategies
Opening Gap Strategy
News-Driven Momentum Strategy
Post–Earnings Announcement Drift
Drift Due to Other Events
Leveraged ETF Strategy
High-Frequency Strategies
CHAPTER 8 Risk Management
Optimal Leverage
Kelly Formula
Optimization of Expected Growth Rate Using Simulated Returns
Optimization of Historical Growth Rate
Maximum Drawdown
Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance
Stop Loss
Risk Indicators
CONCLUSION
BIBLIOGRAPHY
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
ABOUT THE WEBSITE
INDEX
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