Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Techniques by Heuer, Richards J. -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Title Copyright Contents Figures Foreword by John McLaughlin Preface 1. Introduction and Overview

1.1 Our Vision 1.2 The Value of Team Analysis 1.3 The Analyst’s Task 1.4 History of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.5 What’s in This Book? 1.6 Agenda for the Future

2. Building a Taxonomy

2.1 Four Categories of Analytic Methods 2.2 Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques

3. Criteria for Selecting Structured Techniques

3.1 Selection of Techniques for This Book 3.2 Techniques Every Analyst Should Master 3.3 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques 3.4 One Project, Multiple Techniques 3.5 Structured Technique Selection Guide

4. Decomposition and Visualization

4.1 Getting Started Checklist 4.2 Customer Checklist 4.3 Issue Redefinition 4.4 Chronologies and Timelines 4.5 Sorting 4.6 Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing 4.7 Matrices 4.8 Network Analysis 4.9 Mind Maps and Concept Maps 4.10 Process Maps and Gantt Charts

5. Idea Generation

5.1 Structured Brainstorming 5.2 Virtual Brainstorming 5.3 Nominal Group Technique 5.4 Starbursting 5.5 Cross-Impact Matrix 5.6 Morphological Analysis 5.7 Quadrant Crunching

6. Scenarios and Indicators

6.1 Scenarios Analysis

6.1.1 The Method: Simple Scenarios 6.1.2 The Method: Alternative Futures Analysis 6.1.3 The Method: Multiple Scenarios Generation

6.2 Indicators 6.3 Indicators Validator

7. Hypothesis Generation and Testing

7.1 Hypothesis Generation

7.1.1 Simple Hypotheses 7.1.2 The Method: Multiple Hypotheses Generator 7.1.3 The Method: Quadrant Hypothesis Generation

7.2 Diagnostic Reasoning 7.3 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 7.4 Argument Mapping 7.5 Deception Detection

8. Assessment of Cause and Effect

8.1 Key Assumptions Check 8.2 Structured Analogies 8.3 Role Playing 8.4 Red Hat Analysis 8.5 Outside-In Thinking 8.6 Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model 8.7 Prediction Markets

9. Challenge Analysis

9.1 Premortem Analysis 9.2 Structured Self-Critique 9.3 What If? Analysis 9.4 High Impact/Low Probability Analysis 9.5 Devil’s Advocacy 9.6 Red Team Analysis 9.7 Delphi Method

10. Conflict Management

10.1 Adversarial Collaboration 10.2 Structured Debate

11. Decision Support

11.1 Complexity Manager 11.2 Decision Matrix 11.3 Force Field Analysis 11.4 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes 11.5 SWOT Analysis

12. Practitioner’s Guide to Collaboration

12.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams 12.2 Dividing the Work 12.3 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups 12.4 Benefiting from Diversity 12.5 Advocacy vs. Objective Inquiry 12.6 Leadership and Training

13. Evaluation of Structured Analytic Techniques

13.1 Establishing Face Validity 13.2 Limits of Empirical Testing 13.3 A New Approach to Evaluation 13.4 Recommended Research Program

14. Vision of the Future

14.1 Structuring the Data 14.2 Analyzing the Data 14.3 Conclusions Drawn from This Analysis 14.4 Imagining the Future: 2015