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Imperial Library
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Index
Cover
Half title
Title
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
PART 1. Living with Risk
1. The Alpha and the Omega of Risk: The Significance of Mortality
2. Into the Unknown: Modeling Uncertainty
3. The Shapes of Things to Come: Probabilities and Parameters
4. The Value of Experience: Independence and Estimation
5. It’s All in Your Head: Bayesian Decision Making
PART 2. The Realm of Insurance
6. Aloofness and Quasi- Aloofness: Defining Insurance Risks
7. Trustworthy Transfer; Probable Pooling: Financing Insurance Risks
8. God-Awful Guessing and Bad Behavior: Solvency and Underwriting
9. The Good, the Bad, …: The Role of Risk Classification
10. … And the Lawyerly: Liability and Government Compensation
PART 3. Scientific Challenges
11. What Is Randomness?: Knowable and Unknowable Complexity
12. Patterns, Real and Imagined: Observation and Theory
13. False Choices and Black Boxes: The Costs of Limited Data
14. Nullifying the Dull Hypothesis: Conventional Versus Personalized Science
15. Games and the Mind: Modeling Human Behavior
Notes
Author’s Editorials and Other Writings
Bibliography
Index
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