The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. The link provided will take you to the beginning of that print page. You may need to scroll forward from that location to find the corresponding reference on your e-reader.
Note: Page numbers in italics refer to illustrations.
“access” (term usage), 61
accuracy of numbers, 60–61
actors and product promotion, 135
Adams, Dennis, 156
albinism, 166
Aldrin, Buzz, 229–231
Alexa.com, 143
alternative explanations, 152–167
for ancient earthworks of Kazakhstan, 156–58
and cherry-picking, 161
and control groups, 158–160
in court cases, 155–56
scientists’ consideration of, 249
and selective small samples, 164–66
and selective windowing, 161–64
anti-evolutionism, 170
anti-refugee sentiments, 203
anti-science bias, 252
anti-skepticism bias, 252–53
arguments in science, 193–94
Arkani-Hamed, Nima, 250
Armstrong, Neil, 229–231
Associated Press (AP), 66
association, persuasion by, 176–77, 210
atoms, 245
authority, 129, 135. See also experts and expertise
autism and vaccines, 182, 207, 207–10
automobile accidents, 116–17, 202, 273n116
averages, 11–25
and bimodal distribution, 17–18, 18
combining samples from disparate populations, 17
and common fallacies, 18–20
mean, 11–13, 17, 18–19, 21, 265n18
median, 11, 12–13, 17, 18, 19, 265n18
and range, 17
and shifting baselines, 20–24, 22, 23
and skewed distributions, 20–21, 24, 25
axes, 26–42
choosing the scale and, 33–35, 34, 35
discontinuity in, 30–33, 31, 32, 72–73, 73
double Y-axis, 36–42, 37, 38, 44, 44–45
unlabeled, 26–28, 27, 28, 40, 41
baselines for comparison, 7, 21–24, 22, 23, 56
batting averages, 71–72, 72, 73
Bayesian reasoning, 99–102, 216–221, 222, 223–29
Bayes’s rule, 108–9, 217–221, 255, 272n108
Beall, Jeffrey, 144
belief perseverance, 205–7, 210
Best, Joel, 119
Billings, Josh, 125–28
bimodal distribution, 17–18, 18
bin widths, unequal, 71–72
birth rates, 67, 67–71, 68, 69, 70, 71, 151, 154
Blaine, David, 231–245
breath-holding demonstration, 231, 236–245
fasting demonstration, 231, 234–36
ice-block demonstration, 231, 232–33
needle-in-hand demonstration, 234
TED talk of, 231, 232, 236, 244
bosons, 246. See also Higgs boson
bottled water, 176–77
breast cancer, 111–14, 115, 118, 118
breath-holding demonstration of Blaine, 236–245
Brewster, Signe, 249–250
British Medical Journal, 210
Bush, George W., 19, 29, 29–30, 30
California, water consumption in, 55
cancer
breast cancer, 111–14, 115, 118, 118
and perception of risks, 174–75
Capehart, Jonathan, 137
car accidents, 116–17, 202, 273n116
Catholic Church, 154
causation, 48–51
celebrities, reported deaths of, 136
Census of 1960 (U.S.), 91–92
CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), 90–91, 152, 248, 250
Chaffetz, Jason, 40–41
Chomsky, Noam, 136
citations, 149
classic probabilities, 98–99, 271n98
Clinton, Hillary, 148
CNN, 202–3
coincidence, 49–50
collecting numbers. See data collection
college size, 24
combining probabilities, 102–3, 218
comparisons, 61–73
conditional probabilities, 104–8
asymmetry in, 115–19
and Bayes’s rule, 108–9, 272n108
in court cases, 155
and deductive arguments, 186
visualizing, with fourfold tables, 108–11, 118–19
confidence intervals, 82–84, 84, 269n84, 282n248
confounding factors, 212
conspiracies and conspiratorial thinking, 168–170
Consumer Price Index (CPI), 94
Consumer Reports, 252–53
contrapositive statements, 187, 189
control groups, 158–160
converse error (fallacy of affirming the consequent), 186–87, 189
correlation
and causation, 48–51
definition of, 39
illusory, 198–200, 199, 209–10
in school funding and SAT scores, 38, 39, 39–40
counterknowledge, 168–177
and conspiratorial thinking, 168–170
defined, 168
and journalism, 171–73
and moon-landing denial, 230, 231
in Orwell’s 1984, 251
and perception of risks, 173–75
and persuasion by association, 176–77, 210
court cases, 16, 117, 124, 155–56
coverage errors in sampling, 87–88
crime rates, 31, 31–33, 32, 33, 173
critical thinking
cultivation of, 222
and emotions, 224–29
enterprises emphasizing, 252–53
and the Internet, 252–53
and known unknowns, 250
ongoing process of, 253
and the scientific method, 252
and the scientific revolution, 181
] watchers, 54
cum hoc, ergo propter hoc, 49
cumulative sales graphs, 46–47, 47
currency of information, 146
data collection, 75–96
and definitions, 93–95
and fraud, 181–82
and measurement errors, 90–93
and participation biases, 86–88
and reporting biases, 88–89
and sampling, 76–85
and sampling biases, 85–86
and selective windowing, 162
standardization issues in, 90
for unknowable/unverifiable results, 95–96
David and Goliath (Gladwell), 159
death. See mortality and death
deductive reasoning, 183–190, 192, 193, 194–97
definitions in data collection, 93–95
Dentec Safety Specialists and Degil Safety Products, 140–41
Dey, Dimitriy, 157–58
discredited information, 146–48
distribution
bimodal distribution, 17–18, 18
doctors and employment trends, 63
domains of websites, 137–38, 141
drowning deaths, 49, 49–50, 173
Durant, Will and Ariel, 154
ecological fallacy, 18–19
education, purpose of, 215
Eidelman, David, 237
Einstein, Albert, 250
electrons, 246
elementary particles, 246
emotions
and critical thinking skills, 224–29
and justification of decisions, 124
and misframing risks, 202, 203, 205
employment/unemployment rates, 66
evolution, 170
experimental design, 213
experts and expertise, 129–151
and citations, 149
and discredited information, 146–48
evidence-based arguments of, 129, 130
and fraud, 134
and hierarchy of information sources, 135–37, 232
incorrect assessments of, 129, 130–31
and institutional bias, 142
narrow expression of, 134–35, 251–52
opinions shared by, 129–130
and peer-reviewed journals, 132, 135, 143–44
and regulating authorities, 145–46
and reposted information from others, 148
and terminology, 149–151
fact-checking sites and organizations, 147–48
Falkenstein, Glenn, 233–34, 243–44, 245
fallacies, 198–210
affirming the consequent (converse error), 186–87, 189
belief perseverance, 205–7, 210
cum hoc, ergo propter hoc, 49
ecological fallacy, 18–19
and framing of probabilities, 200–201
gambler’s fallacy, 166–67
illusory correlations, 198–200, 199, 209–10
post hoc, ergo propter hoc, 48–49, 207–8, 210
prosecutor’s fallacy, 221
when framing risk, 201–5
false positives/negatives, 111–14, 114
family size, average, 21–22, 23
far transfer, 222
fasting demonstration of Blaine, 234–36
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 155
fermions, 246
food labeling, 74
Forbes magazine, 38, 39, 66, 125
forensic science, 217–221
fourfold tables, 108–11, 118–19, 198–200, 217–221
Fox television, 232
Frandsen, Mads Toudal, 248
fraudulent advertising claims, 145–46
fraudulent research data, 181–82
frequentist probabilities, 98–99, 271n98
Galileo Galilei, 77–78
Gallup, George, 85
gambler’s fallacy, 166–67
genetics, 159–160
Get What You Pay For (Keppel), 7
Gladwell, Malcolm, 159
Gleason tumor grading, 90
Grafton, Scott, 238–240
graphs
choosing the scale and axes for, 33–35, 34, 35
cumulative sales graphs, 46–47, 47
with discontinuity in axes, 30–33, 31, 32, 72–73, 73
with double Y-axis, 36–42, 37, 38, 44, 44–45
misinterpretation of, 119–120
smooth lines in, 42
with truncated vertical axes, 28–29, 29
with unlabeled axes, 26–28, 27, 28
gravitons, 250
Guinness World Records, 238
Han, Dong-Pyou, 182
Harte, Bret, 128
Hawking, Stephen, 249
heterogeneity, 18
hierarchy of source quality, 135–37, 232
Higgs boson, 217, 246–250, 247, 282n248
Holmes, Sherlock, 191–92
Holocaust revisionism, 170
homelessness, measuring, 94
home robberies, 203–5
hypotheses, 212
illegal immigrants, 89
illusory correlations, 198–200, 199, 209–10
illustrations, deceptive, 51–52, 52
immigrants, 203
incidence (term), 149–151
inductive reasoning, 183–84, 190–91, 192
inference, 191
inflation measures, 94
infoliteracy, x
institutional bias, 142
interest rates, 7
Internet and websites, 137–141
and anti-skepticism bias, 252–53
assessing authority of, 143
citing research, 149
misinformation on, 253
and reposted information, 148
interpolation, 58–59
Jenkins, James, 21
Jobs, Steve, 125
joint probabilities, 102–3
Jolly, David, 139–140
journalism
breaking news mode in, 171–72
and counterknowledge, 171–73
crime reporting in, 173
and hierarchy of source quality, 135–36
reliability of, 145
scientific investigation mode in, 171, 172
and selective windowing, 162–63
Journal of Management Development, 6
journals, reputable, 143–44
Kahneman, Daniel, 100
Kazakhstan, ancient earthworks of, 156–58
Kennedy, John F., 169–170
Keppel, Dan, 7
Kerry, John, 19
King, Martin Luther, 141, 275n141
known unknowns, 211–15, 214, 250
The Lancet, 210
Landon, Alf, 85
law of large numbers, 165
learning, role of mistakes in, 249
Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm, 167
Lieb, Gretchen, 126–28
life expectancy, 20–21, 228, 266
Literary Digest, 85
Locard, Edmond, 217–18
logarithmic scales, 35
Los Angeles Times, 55
lying to pollsters, 88–89, 269n81
Lyons, Louis, 248
magicians, 153, 232, 233–34, 242–45. See also Blaine, David
Malthus, Thomas, 151
margin of error, 82, 83–84, 84, 269n84
MartinLutherKing.org, 141, 275n141
mean, 11–13, 17, 18–19, 21, 265
measurement errors in data collection, 90–93
median, 11, 12–13, 17, 18, 19, 265
medicine
and decision making, 111–15, 117–18
and effect of treatments on life expectancy, 228
employment trends in, 63
and incidence vs. prevalence, 149–151
and mortality, 150–51
and pathology, 224
Mendeleev, Dmitri, 245
military service, 62
misinformation, xi, 168, 254, 263. See also counterknowledge
mistakes and learning opportunities, 249
modus ponens statements, 186, 188
moon-landing denial, 229–231
mortality and death
causation vs. correlation in, 49–50, 49
and cause-of-death statistics, 73–74
and conditional probabilities, 106–7
crude death rate, 151
and medical advances of Semmelweis, 194–97
mortality term, 150–51
and perception of risk, 173–75
and plausibility assessments, 6
reported by media, 136
and risk-framing fallacies, 202–3
and shifting baselines, 56
and unknowable/unverifiable claims, 95–96
motorcycle accidents, 63
Mozart effect, 158
multiple sclerosis (MS), 150
multiraciality, 89
Munroe, Randall, 51
neutrons, 246
New England Journal of Medicine, 234
New England Patriots, 92
New Jersey, welfare mothers in, 8–9
New York Times
on ancient earthworks of Kazakhstan, 156–57
on Blaine’s breath-holding demonstration, 240–41, 242
on Higgs boson research, 250
statistics misreported by, 8–9
on unemployment rate, 66
and verification of information, 135–36
on water consumption in California, 55
1984 (Orwell), 251
Nixon, Tom, 243–44
non-response errors in sampling, 87
notation of logical statements, 187–89
Nutrition, 234–35
Orwell, George, 251
outliers, 12–13
The Oxford Dictionary of Quotations (Knowles, ed.), 126–27
Paris attacks of November 13, 2015, 202–3
participation biases, 86–88
pathology, 224
pattern detection, 198
peer review, 132, 135, 143–44, 145
percentages and percentage points, 7
periodic table, 245–46
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), 94
persuasion by association, 176–77, 210
placebos, 158–59
Planned Parenthood, 40, 40–42, 41, 44–45
plausibility, assessing, 3–10
pneumonia, 108
political parties, 62–63
Politifact.com, 147–48
Pollack, Louis, 6
Popoff, Peter, 241
population
population size, 83
rate of natural increase of (RNI), 151
sample sizes for surveys of, 165
post hoc, ergo propter hoc, 48–49, 207–8, 210
Potkin, Ralph, 241
precision vs. accuracy of numbers, 60–61
predictions, 154–55
presidential elections, 19, 85, 91, 147–48
prevalence (term), 149–151
probabilities, 97–120
and counterknowledge, 170
deductive logic of, 183
of events informed by other events, 103–4
framing, 200–201
in medicine, 224
for recurring, replicable events, 98–99
and statistical literacy, 166–67
subjective, 99–102
visualizing, with fourfold tables, 108–11, 118–19, 198–200
See also conditional probabilities
prosecutor’s fallacy, 221
psychics, 153
quarks, 246
quota sampling, 81
quotations, 125–28
racial identities, 89
random sampling, 79–81, 85, 163
range and averages, 17
recycling, 54–55
Rees, Nigel, 125–26
refugees, 203
regret, 229
regulating authorities, 145–46
reporting bias in data collection, 88–89
representative sampling, 76–80, 161–64
Respectfully Quoted (Platt), 125, 126–27
Richards, Cecile, 42
risk
framing of, 201–5
perception of, 173–75
Rivera, Geraldo, 173
Rocketdyne, 230–31
Roosevelt, Franklin D., 85
Sacramento Bee, 173
salespeople, 203–4
samples from disparate populations, 17
sampling, 76–85
biases in, 85–86
and confidence intervals, 82–84, 84, 269n84
and margin of error, 82, 83–84, 84, 269n84
methods of, 62–63
and probabilities, 104
quota, 81
representative, 76–80
sample size, 67, 83, 84, 271n98
selective small samples, 164–66
stratified, 79–81
SAT scores and school funding, 38, 38–40, 39
scenario planning, 154–55
Science, 6
science and the scientific method, 181–197
and abductive reasoning, 191–92
and alternative explanations, 249
and anti-science bias, 252
arguments in, 193–94
and critical thinking skills, 252
and deductive reasoning, 183–190, 192, 193, 194–97
and experimental design, 213
and hypotheses, 212
and inductive reasoning, 183–84, 190–91, 192
and medical advances of Semmelweis, 194–97
and meta-analyses, 142, 183, 217
myths about, 182–83
and notation of logical statements, 187–89
and scientific revolution, 181
value of basic research in, 252
selective windowing, 161–64
Semmelweis, Ignaz, 194–97
Seneff, Stephanie, 208–9
September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 169, 202
Severinsen, Stig, 237
sexual behaviors of teens and preteens, 64–65
Shaw, Gordon, 134
shifting baselines, 20–24, 22, 23
Shockley, William, 134
SIDS (sudden infant death syndrome), 106–7
significance, statistical, 57–58
Slovic, Paul, 173
Snopes.com, 252
sources, hierarchy of, 135–37, 232
sporting events and probabilities, 101
standardization issues in data collection, 90
Standard Model of Particle Physics, 246–250
standard of proof, 248, 282n248
statistical literacy, 166–67
Stephanopoulos, George, 147–48
stratified random sampling, 79–81
subdividing, 73–74
subjective probabilities, 99–102
syllogisms, 185–86
Tampa Bay Times, 147
telephone sampling, 62–63, 85–86
third factor x explanation of correlations, 50–51
Times (U.K.), 174–75
transportation and safety considerations, 201–2
trials, legal, 16, 117, 124, 155–56
Trump, Donald, 147–48
Tuten, Terrell, 21
Tversky, Amos, 100
United Nations, 61
USA Today, 66
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 66, 94
U.S. Centers for Disease Control, 73–74
U.S. News & World Report, 62, 63
U.S. Steel, 16
vaccines and autism, 182, 207–10
verification of information, 147–48
veterinary science, 223–29
Vigen, Tyler, 49–50
Wall Street Journal, 136–37, 171
water quality, 176–77
water usage in California, 55
weather patterns, 103–4
websites. See Internet and websites
Weiss, Hans, 6
World Health Organization (WHO), 209
Wright brothers, 131
xkcd (Munroe), 51
Zander, Benjamin, 249