Index

A/B testing, 157

Accel Partners, 1–2

acquisition programs, 99–100, 101, 102–5

adaptation:

intentional (top-down), 136–37

organic (bottom-up), 136–38, 182

strategic vs. tactical, 137–38

adaptive management, 3, 220–21

culture of, 204–14, 227, 230–31, 233

eleven principles of, 7–11, 223–27; see also specific principles

as fusion of strategy and tactics, 7, 151, 206–7

nine processes of, 210–14, 229–33; see also specific processes

as response to multiple futures, 10, 127, 225

scientific method as basis of, 8, 121, 160

skepticism and, 205–6

see also metrics, managing by

Adelfinger, Tim, 197

Afghanistan, 54

Aguila, Alex, 54

AIG, 112

Alienware, 54–55

Allen, Paul, 219

AltaVista, 113

Alterations, Principle of, 10, 175, 226–27

Amazon.com, 98–99

Ambience Candles, Plan A for, 96–108

American Express, 63–64, 186–88

strategic evolution of, 189–90

Travelers Cheques of, 189

Anderson, Tom, 23–24

AOL Instant Messaging (AIM), 25

Apollo 13, 39–43

Apollo space program, 6, 39–43, 56, 76–79

hypothesis of, 77

tactical scenarios for, 77–78

Apple, 7, 18, 36–37, 54, 74, 183–84, 90

“coolness” factor and, 37

Jobs fired by, 114

Arm & Hammer, 10, 226–27

arms race, 125–26

Army Command and General Staff College, U.S., 5, 14

Art of War, The (Sun Tzu), 5

AT&T, 196

atomic bomb, 47–50, 206–7, 215–17

automobile industry, category creation in, 55–56

automobiles, invention of, 161

backward reasoning, 114–15, 121, 211, 229

Bailey, James, 51

Barber, Brad, 195

Barnum, P. T., 51

battlefields, choosing, 51–61, 224

Beatles, 114

Bellagio, 52

Ben Franklin variety stores, 173–74

Bentonville, Ark., 176

Berry, Marcellus, 189

BIC, 60

biology, organic design in, 136

BlackBerry, 37

Black Swan, The (Taleb), 113

blind taste tests, 197–98, 200–201

Bloch, Henry, 64–65

Bloch, Richard, 64

Blockbuster, 4

Blue Cross Blue Shield, 33, 34

Bockscar, 215

Bombardon, Operation, 15

Born, Max, 124

Borrowing Brilliance (Murray), 5, 27, 211, 230

bottom-up thinking, see tactics, tactical planning

brain, pattern detection and, 166

breast cancer, 31, 33, 45

Breeden, Mrs., 203–4

Breeden, Richard, 203–4

Brin, Sergey, 113

buggy whip industry, 161

business:

forecasting in, see forecasting

science of, see economics

business environment:

as chaotic system, 9–10, 121–25, 127, 134–35, 211, 221, 225, 229–30

speed of change in, 3, 7–8, 9, 151, 223

business models:

acquisition programs in, 99–100, 101, 102–5

centralized vs. distributed, 210, 211–12, 230

chaotic systems and, 121–22, 229–30

driving forces in, 128

evolution of, 3, 10, 19, 56, 106, 110, 175–83

failure of, 4–5, 131–50, 151, 154–55

forecasting in, see forecasting

for health care, 30–34

identification of problem as starting point for, 27

implementation plans for, 107–8

luck and, 217–20

measurement of, see metrics

in Plan A, 106–7

retention programs in, 99–101

as solutions to problems, 8, 19, 25–26, 151–52, 208

strategic (top-down) approach to, 61

tactical (bottom-up) approach to, 61, 175–83

testing of, 140–41

of Wal-Mart, 174–79

business plans, see Plan A; Plan B

BusinessWeek, 114

Business Wire, 97–98

Butcher, Harry, 21

Butler brothers, 174

butterfly effect, 123, 217, 221

buyers’ momentum, 59

buying decisions, emotions in, 200, 201

Calais, France, 15, 34, 44

Canada, 51

cancer, early detection of, 31, 33

cannibalization, as dilemma of innovation, 190–92

can openers, 17–18

capital punishment, 169–70

Carpenter, Scott, 77

Cartier, Jacques, 51

Cascade Range, 132

Cascading Objectives, Principle of, 9, 88–91, 225

category creation, 54, 55–56, 60

causation:

correlation and, 10, 160–65

in stories, 202–3

use of metrics as search for, 158–60

Challenger catastrophe, 73, 79, 113, 117–18

Challenger Revealed (Cook), 79

Chancellorsville, Battle of, 53–54

Chandler, Alfred, 6

chaotic systems, 9–10, 121–25, 211, 221, 225, 229–30

butterfly effect in, 123, 217, 221

Cherbourg, France, 44

chess, 115–16, 121

Christensen, Clayton, 190

Circuit City, 4

Cirque du Soleil, 51–52, 55, 56

Civil War, U.S., 37–38, 53–54

Classic Coke, 168

Clausewitz, Carl von, 5, 53, 58, 60

click-through rate, 106, 108, 152

Cobb, Howell, 38

Coca-Cola (Classic Coke), 54, 197–98, 200–201

Coca-Cola Company, 168, 171, 197–99, 200–201

coincident indicators, 87

Cold War, 125–26

Columbia catastrophe, 73, 113

Commonwealth Fund, 30–31

Communist Party, U.S., 48

comorbidities, 31, 33

competition:

defense in, 87–88, 99

positioning and, 51–61, 224

Principle of Force and, 9, 54–61, 224

see also market share

competitive advantage, sustainable, 70

Competitive Advantage (Porter), 5

complacency, 146

computers:

disruptive technologies and, 190–91

operating systems of, 217–20

see also specific companies

concreteness bias (illusion of knowledge), 193–99, 202–3, 221

concurrent thinking, 109, 206, 213

Concurrent Thinking, Principle of, 9, 71–74, 224–25

Confederacy, 37–38

confirmation bias, 166–71, 202, 211, 229

consumer credit–income ratio, 87

consumer price index, 87

consumer research, 198–202

contingency planning, scenario planning vs., 128

conversion rate, 106, 108

Cook, Richard, 79–80

Cook, Scott, 36, 185

“coolness” factor, 37

correlation:

causation and, 10, 160–65

negative, 163

positive, 162–63

Correlation and Causation, Principle of, 10, 160–63, 226

Cortés, Hernan, 129

cost, price vs., 27

Crest toothpaste, 36

cross docking, 176

culture, of organizations, 11

adaptive management and, 204–14, 227, 230–31, 233

Darwin, Charles, 135–36, 160

dashboards, business, 91–93, 213, 232

data, 205

seductiveness of, 194–96, 202–4, 221

Davidson, Art, 130

Davis, Jefferson, 38

D-Day, see Normandy, Allied invasion of

debate, strategic, 10–11, 207–10, 227, 233

de Bono, Edward, 207

Decca Records, 114

decision making:

emotion in, 200, 201

personal experience and, 203–4

defense, competition and, 87–88, 99

defense, superiority of, 58–61

Dell, 54–55

Denali Pass, 130

denial, failure and, 149, 168

Denial (Tedlow), 147–48

DeWolfe, Chris, 23, 24

Diet Coke, 197–98

Digital Equipment Corporation, 190

digital photography, 4

Digital Research, 218–19

diminishing returns, law of, 179–81

disease, chronic, early detection of, 31–32

Disney, Walt, 71

Disneyland, 71

disruptive technologies, 190–92

Don’t Believe Everything You Think (Kida), 166–67

Doomsday Device, 126

Doubt, Principle of, 10, 145–50, 226

Dr Pepper, 54

Dr. Strangelove (film), 126

Drucker, Peter, 6

Duke, Mike, 179

Durant, William, 27

Dwight D. Eisenhower

Presidential Library and Museum, 21

“Eager Sellers and Stony Buyers” (Gourville), 59

Ebbinghaus, Hermann, 180

economic indicators, 87, 90, 91

economics:

complexity of, 115–16, 121

as pseudoscience, 119, 121

economies of scale, 177

Edison, Thomas, 68

Einstein, Albert, 47

Eisenhower, Dwight, 13–16, 17, 20–21, 26, 44, 52, 83, 127, 149–50

Emancipation Proclamation, 38

Empire State Building, 71, 72

energy generation, centralized vs. distributed, 210, 211, 230

Enola Gay, 215

Enron, 142–44

entrepreneurs, 68, 69

Erie Canal, 186

Ernst, Mark, 63–66

evolution, 136, 138

strategic, 10, 214, 232–33, see also Strategic Alterations, Principle of

tactical, 10, 192, 214, 227, 232–33, see also Tactical Alterations, Principle of

Excite, 113

experiment, in scientific method, 120

experts, trusting in, 196–97, 204

Facebook, 1–3, 6, 7, 9, 11, 23, 162, 170

choice of battlefield and, 56–58, 224

hypothesis of, 25–27, 34, 38, 80, 152

mission of, 83–84

News Feed of, 152–54

objectives and metrics for, 26, 84, 88, 152–54, 157

strategic alignment at, 71–72, 76

virtual gifts at, 156

Zuckerberg’s skepticism of, 205–6

Facebook Effect, The (Kirkpatrick), 25, 205–6

failure:

abandoning of, 131–50, 182, 214

denial and, 149, 168

as happening at tactical level, 154–55

learning from, 159–60

in space shuttle program, 73, 79, 113, 117–18

Fanning, Shawn, 153

Fargo, James, 188–89

Fargo, William, 187, 188

Fastow, Andrew, 143

fate, 221

Fat Man, 50, 215–16

FBI, 48

fear, see paranoia

feature creep, 36, 212, 231

Fiedler, Edgar, 125

financial crisis of 2008, 112

fission, nuclear, 49

flanking maneuvers, 53–54

focus groups, 198–202

Fooled by Randomness (Taleb), 194

Force, Principle of, 9, 51–61, 224

tactical inventories and, 52, 60–61

Ford, Henry, 27, 199

forecasting, 9–10, 111–30, 151, 205

chaotic systems and, 121–25, 134, 211, 217, 221, 225, 229–30

concreteness bias (illusion of knowledge) and, 193–94, 196–97, 202–3, 221

multiple scenarios in, 9–10, 125–30, 141, 211, 212, 217, 229–30

scientific method and, 120

in social sciences, 120–29

of weather, 122–23

Forrester Research, 196, 197

Fortune, 87

frequency, in messaging, 179–80, 182–83

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey (FBR), 112

Friendster, 23, 24, 56

Friis, Janus, 69–70

fusion, nuclear, 49

future, prediction of, see forecasting

Gagarin, Yuri, 77

Galileo Galilei, 120

Galton, Francis, 162

gamers, 54–55

game theory, 125–26

Gates, Bill, 7, 114, 184, 208–9, 217–20

GE Energy, 210, 211, 230

General Electric (GE), 87–88, 209–10

General Motors, 4, 27

Genet, Ray, 130

Germany, Nazi, Normandy invasion and, 14–16, 34, 44

Gettysburg, Battle of, 9, 58, 225

Gillette, 10, 60, 227

giraffe, evolution of, 136, 138

GMAC, 27

goals, 83–93, 101

see also metrics; missions, mission statements

Goizueta, Roberto, 168, 197–99, 200–201

Goldwyn, Samuel, 220

Gonzales, Lawrence, 132

Gonzalez, Nelson, 54

Google, 86, 87, 113

pay-per-click (PPC) program of, 99, 100, 102

Gooseberry, Operation, 15

Gourville, John, 59

Grand Canyon, 207

grand strategy, 13–21, 58

gross national product (GNP), 87

Grove, Andy, 10, 145–50, 226

Groves, Leslie, 47–48

guerrilla marketing, 54–55

guerrilla warfare, 54

Hahn, Otto, 47, 49

Haig, Douglas, 139–40

Half Dome (Yosemite), 141

Halvorson, George, 30, 32, 33

H&R Block, 63–67, 158–60, 191–92, 195, 203–4

primary problem of, 8, 65, 224

strategic failure at, 64–66, 154, 155

Hanford, Wash., 49

Hansen, James, 78

Hard Drive (Wallace), 208

Harris, Jack (char.), 131–33, 134

Harvard University, 56, 57

health care:

business model for, 30–34, 44–46

cost of, 30–33

early detection and, 31–32, 45

income generation as primary function of, 32

integration of insurance and care in, 30, 33, 45–46

quality of, 30

Heisenberg, Werner, 199

Heisenberg Effect, 199–202

Hemingway, Ernest, 96

herd mentality, 59–60

Hewlett-Packard, 55

hindsight bias, 116–19, 121, 211, 212, 221, 229

Hiroshima, bombing of, 50, 215

Hitler, Adolf, 16

Honeywell, 190

Hood, Mount, 131–33

Houbolt, John, 78, 79

Houston Natural Gas, 143

How to Live Longer and Feel Better (Pauling), 197

Hudson Institute, 125

Hughes, Wayne, 75

hypotheses:

evaluation of, 9, 24, 26, 37–38, 205

evolution of, 183

incorrect or obsolete, 37–38

root causes and, 27–32

in scientific method, 120

as solutions to problems, 8, 10, 25–26, 27–28, 44–45, 77, 88, 101, 208, 212, 230

trial and error and, 104, 159–60

IBM, 84–87, 91, 190

PC of, 149, 217–20

360 product line of, 85–87

illusion of knowledge (concreteness bias), 193–99, 202–3, 221

Immelt, Jeff, 210

indicators, economic, 87, 90, 91

information:

collection of, 166–69

concreteness bias (illusion of knowledge) and, 193–96, 202–3, 221

interpretation of, 166, 169–70

selective recall of, 166, 170

innovation, cannibalization dilemma in, 190–92

Innovator’s Dilemma (Christensen), 190

instant messaging, 25

insurance industry, 111–12

integrated managed care, 32–33

Intel, 145–50

intentional (top-down) design, 121, 136–37

interest rates, 87

International Space Station, 6

Internet, 70, 161, 162

InterNorth, 143

Intuit, 36, 184–85, 190, 212, 231

inventions, 68

ripple effect of, 161–62

iPad, 183

iPhone, 3, 36–37, 135, 183–84

iPod, 18–20, 36, 71, 158, 184

Shuffle, 158

iTunes store, 18–20

Ive, Jonathan, 18

JCPenney, 176

Jobs, Steve, 7, 18, 20, 36–37, 71, 184, 206–7, 209

Johnston, Dave, 130

Kahn, Herman, 125–27

Kahneman, Daniel, 193–94, 202

Kaiser Permanente:

hypothesis of, 30, 32–34, 44

tactical inventory of, 45–46

Kazaa, 19, 69

Kennedy, John F., 77, 78

Kepler, Johannes, 120

keywords, 102–3, 106

Kida, Thomas, 166–67

Kierkegaard, Søren, 116

Kildall, Dorothy, 218–19

Kildall, Gary, 218–19

King, Martin Luther, Jr., 67–68

Kirkpatrick, David, 25

Kmart, 174, 176

Kokura, Japan, 215–17, 220

Kokura luck, 217–20

Kranz, Gene, 40–43, 44

Kubrick, Stanley, 126

lagging indicators, 87

Laliberté, Guy, 51

landing pages, 102, 104–5

Las Vegas, Nev., 52, 55

Lay, Kenneth, 143

leading indicators, 87, 90, 91

learning curves, 180

learning process, 212, 230–31

failure as, 159–60

leasing companies, 89–91

Lee, Bruce, 220

Lee, Robert E., 9, 53–54, 75, 225

LEM (lunar excursion module), 42

Lepper, Mark, 169–70

Liddell Hart, B. H., 17, 58–59, 60

lightbulb, 161

Lincoln, Abraham, 37–38

linear regression, 162

Little Boy, 50, 215

Little Round Top, 9, 58, 225

Lobnitz, Operation, 15

logistics, 176–77, 186

Lord, Charles, 169–70

Lorenz, Edward, 122–23

Lousma, Jack, 39–40

Lovell, James, 40, 43

luck, business models and, 217–20

lunar excursion module (LEM), 42

lurking variables, 163–65

MacArthur, Douglas, 14

McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company, 72, 124

McKinley, Mount, 28, 29, 129–30, 204–5

McKinsey & Company, 111, 144, 196

management by objectives (MBO), 6

Manhattan Project, 47–50, 85

marketing, 179–81

Marketing Warfare (Ries and Trout), 60

market share, 54–55, 85, 87–88, 91

see also competition

memory chips, 146–47

messaging, frequency in, 179–80, 182–83

Metallica, 19

meteorology, 122–23

metrics, 9, 24, 26, 106, 141, 225, 232

choice of, 87–88, 213

financial, 84, 85

missions and, 83–84

primary, 88, 90–91, 100

secondary, 88, 90–91

metrics, managing by, 150, 151–71

at Facebook, 26, 84, 88, 152–54, 157

as search for cause and effect, 158–60

as tactical optimization, 156–58, 213, 232

microprocessors, 148–49

Microsoft, 7, 114, 184, 208–9, 217–20

Minus 148° (Davidson), 130

missions, mission statements, 10–11, 227

metrics and, 83–84

Mlodinow, Leonard, 122

Moazami, Bijan, 111–13

Model T Ford, 27

momentum, 144–45

Moore, Gordon, 147–49

“Mother and Child Reunion” (Simon), 74–75

mountaineering:

adaptation in, 131–34

author’s experiences with, 6, 28–29, 129–30, 145, 204–5

hindsight bias in, 118

slippery slopes in, 141–42, 145

MS-DOS, 217–20

Mulberry, Operation, 15–16, 34

Multiple Futures, Principle of, 9–10, 125–29, 225

Munroe, Randall, 165

Murray, Katie, 29–30, 124, 161, 207, 209

Murray, Terri, 124

mutation, 136

mutual assured destruction (MAD), 125–26

Myspace, 9, 23–24, 26–27, 38, 56, 57, 84, 110, 224

Nagasaki, bombing of, 50, 216, 219

Napster, 19, 69

NASA:

space station and, 68–69

see also Apollo space program; space shuttle

National Cable &Telecommunications Association, 164

natural selection, 138

Naval Postgraduate School, 75

Neptune, Operation, 14, 20–21

New Coke, 168, 198–99, 201

Newport News Shipbuilding, 123–24

Newton (Apple device), 184

Newton, Isaac, 119–20

Nguyen, Tila (Tila Tequila), 24

niche markets, 52, 54–55

Normandy, Allied invasion of, 13–16, 19, 20–21, 26, 34, 44, 52, 83, 95, 110, 127, 149–50

North Vietnam, 54

Nostradamus, 125

NutraSweet, 164

Oak Ridge, Tenn., 49

oarsmen, coordination of, 88–89

objectives:

cascading, 9, 88–91, 213, 225

hypotheses and, 9, 24

management by (MBO), 6

Oddo, Ernie, 124

Olde Financial, 65

On Thermonuclear War (Kahn), 125

On War (Clausewitz), 5, 53

OPEC, 126

operating costs, 175–77

operating systems, computer, 217–20

Oppenheimer, J. Robert, 47–50, 85, 206–7, 215

optimization, of tactics, 156–58, 213

Option One Mortgage, 65

organic (bottom-up) design, 121, 136–38, 182

Overlord, Operation, see Normandy, Allied invasion of

Page, Larry, 113

PalmPilot, 135

Paper Plans, Principle of, 9, 109–10, 226

paranoia, value of, 10, 140, 145, 149–50, 204–5, 226

Parker, Sean, 206

pattern detection, human brain and, 166

Pauling, Linus, 196–97

Peale, Norman Vincent, 140, 150

Pearson, Karl, 162

Pedralia, Bob, 68–69

peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing, 69–70

Pentagon, construction of, 47

Pepsi-Cola, 197–98, 200–201

Perot, Ross, 114

personal computers (PCs), as disruptive technology, 190–91

Phoenix, Operation, 15–16, 34

phonograph, 68

physics, Newtonian, 119–20

Plan A, 95–110

adaptability in, 11, 21, 105, 134–36, 151, 223, 229

background in, 97–98

business model in, 106–7

concurrent thinking and, 109

defining primary problem in, 23–38, 97

forecasting in, see forecasting

grand strategy of, 13–21

implementation plan in, 107–8

importance of writing process in, 9, 95–96, 109–10, 226

ongoing evaluation of, 128–29

overview in, 96–97

as solving hierarchy of problems, 110

strategic alignment in, 102, 109

strategy in, 99–101

tactical inventory of, 39–50

tactics in, 101–5, 175

Plan B, 173–92

Apollo 13 and, 41, 43

as evolution of Plan A, 4–5, 10, 19, 39, 105, 110, 129, 215–22, 223, 226, 229

innovator’s dilemma and, 190–92

Intel and, 145–50

strategic evolution and, 183–90

tactical evolution and, 175–83

planning, process vs. result in, 9, 21

plutonium, 49–50

points of view, 207–8

Polaroid Corporation, 4, 8, 185, 189, 223–24

Pony Express, 187

Popcorn, Faith, 112

Porter, Michael, 5, 6–7

positioning, 51–61, 224

positive test strategy, 167–68

positive thinking, 140, 150, 226

Post Office, U.S., 186

Power of Positive Thinking, The (Peale), 140

Preferred Capital, 89–91, 92–93, 128, 169, 170, 181–82, 203

price, cost vs., 27

problems:

customer-centered, 26–27, 34, 65, 88, 97, 101, 135

defining, 23–38, 97, 212, 230, 231

hierarchy of, 8, 9, 17, 34–36, 74, 110, 151, 212, 223, 231

hypotheses and, 8, 10, 25–26, 27–28, 44–45, 77, 88, 101, 208, 212, 230

primary, 8, 23–38, 65, 72–73, 80, 84, 88, 97, 135, 177, 223–24, 231; see also missions, mission statements

root causes of, 27–32, 34

solving vs. defining, 27

strategic solutions to, 23–24, 34–35, 65

tactical solutions to, 8–9, 24, 35, 46–50, 230

see also solutions

Problems, Principle of, 8, 26–27, 34–38, 223–24

Procter & Gamble, 47

product costs, 176, 177

profits, short-term, 143–44

Promontory, Utah, 187

Quebec, Canada, 51

QuickBooks, 185

Quicken, 36, 185, 212, 231

Rachlinski, Jeffrey, 117

Rainier, Mount, 133–34

RAND Corporation, 125

relationship building, 100–101, 105

retention programs, 99–101

Rhino, Operation, 15–16

Ries, Al, 60, 138

Ringling Brothers, 51

rock climbing, 39

author’s experiences with, 6, 28

Rolling Stone, 75

Roman longship, 88–89

Rommel, Erwin, 14–16, 34

Roosevelt, Franklin, 47

Ross, Lee, 169–70

Royal Dutch Shell, 126

Rubenstein, Jon, 18

Rudder, James, 21, 83, 127

Safari browser, 36

Sagan, Carl, 161

Sams, Jack, 218–19

San Francisco fire (1906), 188

scenarios, multiple, 9–10, 125–30, 141, 211, 212, 217, 225, 229–30

contingency planning vs., 128

scientific method, 8, 120, 121, 160–61

Scully, John, 114

Seamans, Robert, 77, 79

Sears, 176–77

Seattle Computer Products, 219

Second International Congress on Forecasting, 194

Secret, The (Byrne), 140

selective recall, 166, 170

Shaw, George Bernard, 36

ships, Roman, 88–89

Simon, Paul, 74–75

single data points, 202–4, 221

site optimization, 156–57

Sittig, Aaron, 26

Six Thinking Hats (de Bono), 207

Skilling, Jeffrey, 143

Skype, 69–70

slaves, slavery, 37–38, 88–89

Slayton, Deke, 79

sleep apnea, 118

slippery slopes:

in business, 142–45, 179

in mountaineering, 141–42

Smiley, Mark, 131, 133–34

Smith, Mike, 79

social media, 23–27, 46, 56, 162

see also Facebook; Myspace

social sciences, forecasting in, 120–29

social systems, complexity of, 122

software, feature creep in, 36, 212, 231

solutions:

inventories of, 10, 39–50, 52, 60–61, 127, 225

new problems as created by, 35–36, 224

parallel, 46–50

see also problems

Solutions, Principle of, 8–9, 46–47, 224

Somme, Battle of the, 139, 183

Sony, 54

South Vietnam, 54

Soviet Union, 77

arms race and, 125–26

space race, 77

space shuttle program, 6, 56, 171

catastrophic failures of, 73, 79, 113, 117–18

misalignment of strategy and tactics in, 73–74, 76, 154–55

primary problem (mission) of, 72–73, 84

space station, 68–69

Sputnik, 77

Stanford Daily, 57

stories, causation in, 202–3

Strassmann, Fritz, 47, 49

strategic alignment, 7–8, 9, 63–81, 102, 109, 175, 206–7, 213, 224–25, 231–32

Strategic Alterations, Principle of, 10, 183–90, 226–27

Strategic Debate, Principle of, 10–11, 207–10, 227

strategy, strategic planning, 3, 213

adaptation and, 134–38, 175

changing environment and, 182

debate and, 10–11, 207–10, 227, 233

defensive, 58–61, 87–88

evolution of, 10, 183–90, 214, 226–27, 232–33

fusion of tactics and, see strategic alignment

“grand,” 13–21, 58

history of, 5–7

importance of writing process in, 9, 95–96, 109–10, 213, 226, 232

leading indicators and, 87

in Plan A, 99–101

problem solving as goal of, 8, 10, 23–24, 66–67, 88, 99, 135, 212

slippery slopes in, 142–45, 179

tactical adaptation and, 186

tactical inventories and, 43–44, 230

testing of, 104, 110, 232

as top-down process, 6–7, 9, 65–68, 225

Strategy and Structure (Chandler), 6

Subdome (Yosemite), 141–42, 145

suburbs, 162

success:

as combination of luck and ability, 220

reinforcement of, 131–50, 182, 214

Sulcer, Louis, 20

Sun Tzu, 5

superiority of defense, 58–61

surveys, 198, 201–2

survival, adaptation as key to, 134, 135–36

Sweeney, Charles, 215–16

Swigert, John, Jr., 40

tablet PCs, 184

Tactical Alterations, Principle of, 10, 175–83, 227

tactics, tactical planning, 3, 6, 65, 205

acquisition, 101, 102–5

adaptation and, 46, 134, 136–38

as bottom-up process, 9, 67, 68–70, 225

briefing documents for, 80–81, 213, 231–32

changing environment and, 181–83

diminishing effectiveness of, 179–81, 213, 224

evolution of, 10, 175–83, 192, 214, 227, 232–33

fusion of strategy and, see strategic alignment

intentional duplication of, 46–50

inventories of, 10, 39–50, 52, 60–61, 127, 148, 174, 211–12, 225, 230

optimization of, 156–58, 213

in Plan A, 101–5

product, 101–2

retention, 101, 105

as solutions to problems, 8–9, 24, 35, 65–66, 77–78

strategic evolution and, 186

testing of, 1, 69, 103–4, 105, 110, 155–56, 224; see also metrics, managing by

of Wal-Mart, 175–79

Taleb, Nassim, 113, 194

Target, 98, 99, 174, 179, 181

TaxNet, 1

Tedlow, Richard, 85, 86, 147–48

Teller, Edward, 49

Teresa, Mother, 67

Tevis, Lloyd, 188

text ads, 102, 103–4

theories, see hypotheses Tibbets, Paul, 215

tic-tac-toe, 115

Time, 146

time spent on the site (TSOTS), 152–53

tin cans, 17–18

Tonga, Operation, 14, 34

top-down thinking, see strategy, strategic planning

traffic verification, 108

transcontinental railroad, 187

Trout, Jack, 60

Truman, Harry, 215

TurboTax, 191–92

Twitter, 162

Tyson, Mike, 11

Ulrich, Lars, 19

uncertainty principle, 199–202

Union of Concerned Scientists, 201

UnitedHealthcare, 33, 34

United States, arms race and, 125–26

uranium, 49–50

variables, lurking, 163–65

vertigo, 28

Vietnam War, 54

vitamin C, 197

Wal-Mart, 86, 99, 128, 213

business model of, 174–79

compensation of store managers at, 176

employee benefits at, 177–78

hierarchy of problems at, 35

logistics at, 176–77

operating costs of, 175–77

primary and secondary metrics of, 91

primary problem of, 8, 26, 34, 35, 80, 88, 177, 223

product costs at, 176, 177

strategic alignment at, 175, 176, 189, 231–32

tactical evolution at, 174–79, 181

vendor relations of, 177, 178

Walton, James, 174

Walton, Rob, 179

Walton, Sam, 26, 35, 88, 173–74, 178

Waterloo, Battle of, 53

Watson, Thomas, Jr., 85, 86–87, 91, 114

weather forecasting, 122–23

Weisskopf, Victor, 48

Welch, Jack, 87–88, 197

Wells, Henry, 186–88, 189

Wells Fargo:

strategic evolution of, 188–90

tactical adaption at, 187–88

Western Express, 186

West Point, U.S. Military Academy at, 14

Whale, Operation, 15

Whitney, Mount, 118–19

winner’s bias, 139–41

Wirehog, 206

Wood, Steve, 209

word of mouth, 174–75

World War I, 59, 139–40, 189

World War II:

atomic bomb in, 47–50

Normandy invasion in, see Normandy, Allied invasion of

Yahoo!, 113

Yankee Candle, 98, 101

Yosemite Valley, 141–42

Zappos, 98–99

Zennström, Niklas, 69–70

Zuckerberg, Mark, 1–3, 6, 7, 11, 23, 25–27, 38, 56–58, 71, 76, 152–54

as both strategic and tactical thinker, 155–56

skepticism of, 205–6

see also Facebook