1. Company financial reports and investor presentations.
1. International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook: 2012 (Paris, France, 2012), 81.136.
2. Alex Trembath et al., “Where The Shale Gas Revolution Came From: Government’s Role in the Development of Hydraulic Fracturing in Shale,” Breakthrough Institute Energy & Climate Program (May 2012), http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/Where_the_Shale_Gas_Revolution_ Came_From.pdf. For a taste of the government’s massive role in the development of coalbed methane technology, see “Proceedings of the 2nd Annual Methane Recovery from Coalbeds Symposium,” Morgantown Energy Technology Center (MERC), April 1979, http://www.netl.doe.gov/kmd/cds/disk7/disk2/MRC%5CProceedings%20of%20the%20Second%20Annual%20Methane%20Recovery%20from%20Coalb.pdf.
3. For an introduction to the technology of shale gas drilling, see Charles Boyer et al., “Producing Gas from Its Source,” Oilfield Review (Autumn 2006): 36–49.
4. D. J. Mossman, Bartholomew Nagy, and D. W. Davis, “Comparative Molecular, Elemental, and U-Pb Isotopic Composition of Stratiform and Dispersed-Globular Matter in the Paleoproterozoic Uraniferous Metasediments, Elliot Lake, Canada,” Energy Sources 15:2 (1993): 377–387.
5. Jeffrey S. Dukes, “Burning Buried Sunshine: Human Consumption of Ancient Solar Energy,” Climatic Change 61:1 (2003): 31–34; US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Unconventional Natural Gas Liquids” in Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO2006), (Washington, DC, 2006).
6. Rick Lewis et al., “New Evaluation Techniques for Gas Shale Reservoirs” (paper presented at Schlumberger Reservoir Symposium, 2004).
7. Except as noted, shale descriptions from EIA, “Review of Emerging Resources: U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays” (Washington DC, July 2011).
8. United States Geologic Survey (USGS), “Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Ordovician Utica Shale of the Appalachian Basin Province, 2012,” National Assessment of Oil and Gas (September 2012), http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3116/FS12–3116.pdf.
9. USGS, “Assessment of Undiscovered Natural Gas Resources of the Arkoma Basin Province and Geologically Related Areas,” National Oil and Gas Assessment Project (June 2010), http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3043/pdf/FS10–3043.pdf.
10. Rex W. Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, Exxon Mobil Corporation, “The New North American Energy Paradigm: Reshaping the Future” (on-the-record presentation at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 27, 2012).
11. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (June 2012). See discussion “11. U.S. crude oil and natural gas resource uncertainty” ff 56–59; USGS, “Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Devonian Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin Province, 2011,” National Oil and Gas Assessment Project (August 2011), http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3092/pdf/fs2011–3092.pdf.
12. Rafael Sandrea, “Evaluating Production Potential of Mature US Oil, Gas Shale Plays,” Oil & Gas Journal (December 3, 2012).
13. “New Rigorous Assessment of Shale Gas Reserves Forecasts Reliable Supply from Barnett Shale Through 2030,” University of Texas Press Release, http://www.google.com/#q=rigorous+assessment+barnett&hl=en&source=univ&tbm=nws&tbo=u&sa=X&ei=gCQ1UdWkGoXN0wGpiYDgCQ&sqi=2&ved=0CC0QqAI&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&bvm=bv.43148975,d.dmg&fp=cae25ae9f45ad1e8&biw=1218&bih=920.
14. IEA, Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas: World Energy Outlook: Special Report on Unconventional Gas (Paris, OECD/IEA, 2012), 28–30; Hemant Kumar and Jonathan P. Mathews, “An Overview of Current Coalbed Methane Extraction Technologies,” Department of Energy & Engineering, Pennsylvania State University (2010), http://www.netl.doe.gov/kmd/RPSEA_Project_Outreach/07122–27_CBM_Initial_review.pdf.
15. Alberta Chamber of Resources, “Oil Sands Technology Roadmap,” January 2004.
16. Nick Snow, “BLM Awards Two Colorado RD&D Oil Shale Projects,” Oil & Gas Journal, September 5, 2012; “ExxonMobil Exploration Company (“ExxonMobil”) RD&D Lease Plan of Operations,” and “Natural Soda Plan of Operations, Oil Shale Research, Development & Demonstration (RD&D), Tract COC 74299,” both of which may be found at: http://www.blm.gov/co/st/en/fo/wrfo/Oil_Shale_-_Round_2.html (accessed February 22, 2013).
1. Nucor presentation at the Goldman Sachs Annual Steel Conference, November 28, 2012; additional background from annual reports and other official filings.
2. IHS, “America’s New Energy Future: The Unconventional Oils and Gas Revolution and the US Economy, Volume I, National Economic Contributions,” An IHS Report, October 2012.
3. Jane Nakano et al., “Prospects for Shale Gas Development in Asia: Examining Potentials and Challenges in China and India,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), August 2012; Svetlana Izrailova, “Shale Gas Development in China,” e-International Relations, January 9, 2013.
4. American Chemistry Council, “Shale Gas and New Petrochemical Investment: Benefits for the Economy, Jobs, and US Manufacturing,” March 2011.
5. American Chemistry Council, “Shale Gas, Competitiveness and New U.S. Investment: A Case Study of Eight Manufacturing Industries,” May 2012.
6. Citi GPS, “Energy 2020: North America, the New Middle East?” March 20, 2012.
7. “Comments of the Dow Chemical Company Before the United States Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy,” 2012 LNG Export Study, January 24, 2013.
8. PWC, “Shale Gas: a Renaissance in US Manufacturing?” (December 2011); Steve James, “Analysis: Steelmakers Eye Gas to Cut Costs, Drive Exports,” Reuters, March 16, 2012; Liam Denning, “Kafkaesque Twist in U.S.-Europe Energy Gap,” Wall Street Journal, December 25, 2012; John M. Broder and Clifford Krauss, “A Big, and Risky, Energy Bet,” New York Times, December 17, 2012.
9. Harold L. Sirkin, Michael Zinser, and Douglas Hohner, “Made in America, Again: Why Manufacturing Will Return to the U.S.,” Boston Consulting Group, August 25, 2011; Harold L. Sirkin, Michael Zinser, Douglas Hohner, and Justin Rose, “U.S. Manufacturing Nears the Tipping Point: Which Industries, Why, and How Much?” Boston Consulting Group, March 22, 2012; Harold L. Sirkin et al., “Why America’s Export Surge Is Just Beginning,” Boston Consulting Group, September 21, 2012, https://www.bcgperspectives.com/search/?SearchQuery=made%20in%20america.
10. Justin R. Pierce and Peter K. Schott, “The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment,” NBER Working Paper 18655 (December 2012). This paper finds a strong association with the granting of permanent normal trade relations with China in 2000, and hypothesizes that it eliminated uncertainty among Chinese officials about the US reaction.
11. Department of Energy (DOE), “Natural Gas Regulatory Program,” see http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/gasregulation/ (accessed February 22, 2013).
12. Peter Kelly-Detwiller, “LNG Export Economics: A Look at Frontrunner Cheniere,” Forbes, December 5, 2012, http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterdetwiler/2012/12/05/lng-export-economics-a-look-at-frontrunner-cheniere/; Jane Wardell, “Exxon’s PNG LNG Project Costs Balloon to $19 Billion, Reuters, November 11,2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/12/us-exxon-png-idUSBRE8AA0GR20121112.
13. Kenneth B. Medlock III, “U.S. LNG Exports: Truth and Consequence,” James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University (August 10, 2012), 15.
14. NERA Economic Consulting, “Macroeconomic Impacts of LNG Exports from the United States,” submitted to the Office of Fossil Energy, US Department of Energy, December 3, 2012, see http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/gasregulation/reports/nera_ lng_report.pdf.
15. Michael Levi, “A Strategy for U.S. Natural Gas Exports,” The Hamilton Project, Discussion Paper 2012–04 (June 2012).This is an extremely fair and rounded presentation.
16. NERA, 62, 55.
17. “Comments of the Dow Chemical Company, Before the United States Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy,” 2012 LNG Export Study, January 24, 2013, http://wvww.sutherland.com/files/upload/DowChemical-Comments.pdf.
18. National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, “Large Scale Export of East Coast Australia Natural Gas: Unintended Consequences” (October 2012), ii. See “Australia Natural Gas: Unintended Consequences,” available at: http://www.americasenergyadvantage.org.
19. Zack Coleman, “More Than 100 in House Press Administration to Allow Gas Exports,” The Hill E2 Wire, January 25, 2013, http://the-hill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/279309-lawmakers-press-energy-department-to-expand-lng-exports; Nick Snow, “US DOE Moves Carefully on LNG Export Requests, NARUC Meeting Told,” and “More Than Gas Is Needed to Control GHGs, NARUC Committee Told,” Oil & Gas Journal (February 11, 2013): 12, 20.
1. International Energy Agency (IEA), Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas: World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas (Paris, OECD/IEA, 2012), http://www.iea.org/media/WEO_GoldenRules_ForA_GoldenAgeOfGas_Flyer.pdf.
2. Christopher Helman, “The Two Sides of Aubrey McClendon, America’s Most Reckless Billionaire,” Forbes, October 5, 2011; Agustino Fontevecchia, “Ex-Billionaire McClendon Out at Chesapeake Over Differences,” Forbes, January 29, 2013.
3. Nicholas Kusnetz, “North Dakota’s Oil Boom Brings Damage Along With Prosperity,” ProPublica, June 7, 2012.
4. Alan Krupnik, Hal Gordon, and Sheila Olmstead, “Pathways to Dialogue: What the Experts Say About the Environmental Risks of Shale Gas Development,” Resources for the Future, February 2013.
5. Glenn D. Schiable and Marcel P. Aillery, “Water Conservation in Irrigated Agriculture: Trends and Challenges in the Face of Emerging Demands,” Economic Information Bulletin Number 99, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture (September 2012), 28; Jack Healey, “For Farms in the West, Oil Wells Are Thirsty Rivals, New York Times, September 5, 2012.
6. Erick Mielke, Laura Diaz Anadon, and Venkatesh Narayanamurti, “Water Consumption of Energy Resource Extraction, Processing and Conversion: A Review of the Literature,” Discussion Paper No. 2010–15, Energy Policy Innovation Discussion Paper Series, Harvard Kennedy School (October 2010), 6, 13–22. Lean shale gas also requires the least processing of any of the hydocarbon fuels.
7. Jack Healey, “With Ban on Drilling Practice, Town Lands in Thick of Dispute,” New York Times, November 25, 2012.
8. Resources for the Future, Center for Energy Economics and Policy, “A Review of Shale Gas Regulations by State: Setback Restriction from Buildings; Setback Restrictions from Water Sources,” available online only, http://www.rff.org/centers/energy_economics_and_policy/Pages/Shale_Maps.aspx (accessed February 22, 2013).
9. Geoff Liesik, “Utah Natural Gas Well Fire Forces Evacuations,” Deseret Morning News, January 23, 2013.
10. Charles G. Groat and Thomas W. Grimshaw, “Fact-Based Regulation for Environmental Protection in Shale Gas Development,” Energy Institute of the University of Texas at Austin (February 2012), 26.
11. Railroad Commission of Texas, “All Blowouts and Well Control Problems, All Blowouts 2011–2015,” http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/data/drilling/blowouts/allblowouts11–15.php (accessed February 22, 2013). 2012 data was not yet posted.
12. Stephen G. Osborn et al., “Methane Contamination of Drinking Water Accompanying Gas-Well Drilling and Hydraulic Fracturing,” PNAS 108:20 (May 17, 2011): 8172–8176.
13. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and Development, “Investigation of Ground Water Contamination near Pavillion, Wyoming,” draft paper, December 2012: xii-xiii, 1–4, 26, 29–30. The EPA maintains a web site with a rich set of documents and comments by interested parties at http://wvww.epa.gov/region8/superfund/wy/pavillion/. Even Terry Engelder, a professor of geoscience at Pennsylvania State University, who has played a major role in the evolving technology of shale exploitation and is assumed to be a friend of the industry, has criticized them for refusing to concede fault in obvious situations. Terry Engelder, “A Gusher of Hogwash,” Philadelphia Inquirer, April 28, 2012.
14. Secretary of Energy Advisory Board, Shale Gas Production Subcommittee, “Ninety-Day Report,” August 18, 2011, 24.
15. Resources for the Future, “A Review of Shale Gas Regulations,” op. cit.; USEPA, “Methane to Markets: Reducing Methane Emissions in Pipeline Maintenance and Repair,” Technology Transfer Workshop (November 2008); and “Installing Vapor Recovery Units,” Technology Transfer Workshop (August 2009). See collection at http://epa.gov/gasstar/documents/workshops/. Gabrielle Petron et al., “Estimation of Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas Operations in Northeastern Colorado,” Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conference/ei20/session6/gpetron.pdf. The document is undated, but a version was submitted to the peer-reviewed Journal of Geophysical Letters in October 2011 and published in February 2012.
16. IEA, Golden Rules, 2012.
17. Robert W. Howarth, Renee Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea, “Methane and the Greenhouse-Gas Footprint of Natural Gas from Shale Formations,” Climatic Change 106 (2011): 679–690.
18. Timothy J. Skone, “Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction & Delivery in the United States,” Office of Strategic Energy Analysis and Planning, National Energy Technology Laboratory, May 12, 2011. According to Ingraffea, he and Howarth had run an energy-related lecture series and presented their paper at their concluding session. A short time later they were surprised that another lecture had been scheduled as part of the same series. It had been organized by a colleague in order to introduce the federal refutation. The federal people, he says, told him that they were instructed to organize it and had only a couple of weeks to pull it together. Their lecture was basically a compilation of the government’s standing position on the issue—which the Cornell paper was purporting to question—and makes no mention of the Cornell paper. It was widely publicized in the industry press.
19. My thanks to Mark Brownstein, chief counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund’s US Energy & Climate Program, and Laura Whittenberg, who pulled together material for me. An EDF-sponsored study—Ramón A. Alvarez et al., “Greater Focus Needed on Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Infrastructure,” PNAS Early Edition (February 13, 2012): 1–6—illustrates the importance of leakages. For University of Texas at Austin and West Virginia collaborations, see http://www.engr.utexas.edu/news/7416-allenemissions-study and http://wvutoday.wvu.edu/n/2013/03/04/scemr-release.
20. Nicholas Stern, The Global Deal: Climate Change and the Creation of a New Era of Progress and Prosperity (New York: PublicAffairs, 2009) is a good example. Robert Bryce, Power Hungry: The Myths of “Green” Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future (New York: PublicAffairs, 2010) is an intelligent countercase.
21. Dieter Helm, The Carbon Crunch: How We’re Getting Climate Change Wrong—and How to Fix It (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), 67–72.
22. Stern, Global Deal, 351.
23. Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. DeLucchi, “A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030,” Scientific American (November 2009): 58–65; for a complete exposition, see Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. DeLucchi, “Providing All Global Energy with Wind, Water, and Solar Power, Part I: Technologies, Energy Resources, Quantities and Areas of Infrastructure and Materials,” Energy Policy 39 (2011): 1154–1169; and “Part II: Reliability, System and Transmission Costs, and Policies,” Energy Policy 39 (2011): 1170–1190. Quote at 1178.
24. Helm, Carbon Crunch, 62–67.
1. Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., “Arthur M. Schlesinger, Sr.: New Viewpoints in American History Revisited,” New England Quarterly 61:4 (December, 1988): 483–501, at 500.
1. Congressional Budget Office, “Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure,” A CBO Study (November 2010): Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Domestic GDP.
2. American Society of Civil Engineers, America’s Infrastructure Report Card for 2009 (Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2009), 15–18.
3. Ibid., 41–44, quote at 43.
4. Ibid., 24–29; US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), “Drinking Water Infrastructure Needs Survey and Assessment,” Fourth Report to the Congress, Washington, D.C., 2007; Congressional Budget Office, “Future Investment in Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure,” A CBO Study (November 2002).
5. ASCE, Report Card 2009, 33–36; US EPA, “Superfund National Accomplishments, Summary Report for 2011,” http://www.epa.gov/superfund/accomp/pdfs/FY%2011%20Summary%20FINAL.pdf.
6. ASCE, Report Card 2009, 83–87.
7. US Department of Transportation, “2010 Status of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions and Performance Report to Congress,” Washington, D.C., March 2012: Executive Summary, 1:23, 9:28, http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/2010cpr/.
8. Ibid., 5,7; ASCE, Report Card 2009, 101.
9. Association of American Railroads, “An Overview of America’s Freight Railroads,” (July 2012); Brian A. Weatherford and Henry H. Willis, “Getting America Back on Track, U.S. Public Policy on Railroads,” Policy Insight 2 (December 2008): 8.
10. ASCE, Report Card 2009, 91–94.
11. Federal Aviation Administration, “Budget Estimates: Fiscal Year 2013,” http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aatf/media/FAA_FY2013_Budget_Estimates.pdf (accessed March 5, 2013).
12. Federal Aviation Administration, “NextGen Implementation Plan,” Washington, D.C., 2012, http://www.faa.gov/nextgen/implementation/plan/ (accessed March 5, 2013); Adrian Schofield, “FAA’s NextGen Program Reaches Critical Period,” Aviation Daily, January 14, 2013, http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/avd_01_14_2013_p05–01-534008.xml (accessed March 5, 2013).
13. Cisco Systems, Inc., “Third Annual Broadband Study Shows Global Broadband Quality Improves by 24% in One Year,” October 18, 2010, http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2010/prod_101710.html (accessed March 5, 2013). Editorial, “Why Broadband Service in the U.S. Is So Awful,” Scientific American, October 4, 2010, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=competition-and-the-internet.
14. Douglas Sutherland et al., “Infrastructure Investment: Links to Growth and the Role of Public Policies,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 686, OECD Publishing, March 24, 2009: 14–17 and Table 1, http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/infrastructure-investment_225678178357.
15. Daniel Alpert, Robert Hockett, and Nouriel Roubini, “The Way Forward: Moving from the Post–Bubble, Post–Bust Economy to Renewed Cost and Competitiveness,” New America Foundation, October 10, 2011: 16, http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/the_way_forward.
16. Laura Tyson, “The Case for a Multi-Year Infrastructure Investment Plan,” New America Foundation, September 6, 2010, http://www.newamerica.net/publications/policy/the_case_for_a_multi_year_ infrastructure_investment_plan (accessed March 5, 2013).
17. “Building Infrastructure: A River Runs through It,” The Economist, March 2, 2013.
1. Johanna Bennett, “Top Health Care Stocks for 2013,” Barron’s, January 22, 2013.
2. William J. Baumol, The Cost Disease: Why Computers Get Cheaper and Health Care Doesn’t (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012); Katherine Baicker and Jonathan S. Skinner, “Health Care Spending and the Future of U.S. Tax Rates,” NBER Working Paper16772 (February 2011).
3. Calculated by author from: “The Pharmaceutical Industry in the United States,” http://selectusa.commerce.gov/industry-snapshots/pharmaceutical-industry-united-states (accessed March 17, 2013); “Medical Devices: Industry Assessment,” http://ita.doc.gov/td/health/medical%20device%20industry%20assessment%20final%20ii%203–24–10.pdf; and Ross Eisenbrey, “Health Insurance Industry Employment Outpacing Providers and All-Industry Growth Rates,” Economic Policy Institute, September 18, 2007, http://www.epi.org/publication/webfeatures_snapshots_20070919/ (accessed March 17, 2013).
4. Baumol, The Cost Disease, 2012.
5. National Center for Health Statistics, “Health, United States, 2010: With Special Feature on Death and Dying,” Hyattsville, MD, February 2011, Table 24: 137. Calculations by the author.
6. David M. Cutler et al., “Are Medical Prices Declining: Evidence from Heart Attack Treatments,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 113:4 (November, 1998), 992–1023.
7. The McKinsey Global Institute, “Accounting for the Cost of US Health Care: A New Look at Why Americans Spend More,” McKinsey & Co., December 2008.
8. Antonio P. Legoretto et al., “Increased Cholecystectomy Rate after the Introduction of Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy,” Journal of the American Medical Association 270:12 (September 22/29, 1993): 1429–1432.
9. Richard G. Frank, “Behavioral Economics and Health Economics,” NBER Working Paper 10881 (October 2004). This is an important paper. My observations of the cardiac surgery billing system at Columbia University Medical Center bear out Frank’s observations. The unit expressly did not engage in profit-maximizing behavior; their approach instead fit better with a game-theory “minimax” model. They evolved a billing practice that was designed to allow them to practice their desired mode of surgery with a minimum economic penalty. As a practical matter, each year’s billing strategy was worked out by the division director and the billing staff; the individual surgeons were mostly oblivious of the details.
10. American Council on Science and Health, “Wide Variations in Rates of C-Section—But Why?,” March 5, 2013, http://www.acsh.org/wide-variation-in-rates-of-c-section-but-why/ (accessed March 15, 2013).
11. Atul Gawande, “The Checklist,” The New Yorker, December 10, 2007; Jonathan Skinner and Douglas Staiger, “Technology Diffusion and Productivity Growth in Health Care,” NBER Working Paper 14865 (April 2009). It is useful to read this paper in conjunction with the Frank paper cited above.
12. Atul Gawande, “The Cost Conundrum: What a Texas Town Can Teach Us about Health Care,” New Yorker, June 1, 2009.
13. Ibid.
14. Lawrence B. McCullough et al., eds., Surgical Ethics (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998), 351.
15. Reed Abelson, “Financial Ties Are Cited as Issue in Spine Study,” New York Times, January 30, 2008.
16. Jean M. Mitchell, “Urologists’ Self-Referral for Pathology or Biopsy Specimens Linked to Increased Use and Lower Prostate Cancer Detection,” Health Affairs 31:4 (April 2012): 741–749.
17. Steven Brill, “Bitter Pill: Why Medical Bills Are Killing Us,” Time, March 4, 2013.
18. Laura Beil, “Questions Linger for Best Use of Proton Beam Therapy,” Cure, September 13, 2012, http://curetoday.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/article.show/id/2/article_id/1976.
19. Department of Justice, Office of Public Affairs, “Justice Department Recovers Nearly $5 Billion in False Claims Act Cases in Fiscal Year 2012,” December 4, 2012, http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2012/December/12-ag-1439.html; Skadden, “Pharma/Device Enforcement: A Year in Review,” January 19, 2012.
20. Frank R. Lichtenberg, “The Impact of Therapeutic Procedure Innovation on Hospital Patient Longevity: Evidence from Western Australia, 2000–2007,” NBER Working Paper 17414 (September, 2011). This article also includes a summary of previous work by other authors. Frank R. Lichtenberg, “Have Newer Cardiovascular Drugs Reduced Hospitalization? Evidence from Longitudinal Country-Level Data on 20 OECD Countries, 1995–2003,” NBER Working Paper 14008 (May 2008); Lichtenberg, “The Quality of Medical Care, Behavioral Risk Factors, and Longevity Growth,” NBER Working Paper 15068 (June 2009); Lichtenberg, “Has Medical Innovation Reduced Cancer Mortality?” NBER Working Paper 15880 (April 2010); Lichtenberg, “The Effect of Pharmaceutical Innovation on the Functional Limitations of Elderly Americans: Evidence from the 2004 Nursing Home Survey,” NBER Working Paper 17750 (January 2012); Lichtenberg, “Pharmaceutical Innovation and Longevity Growth in 30 Developing and High-Income Countries, 2000–2009), NBER Working Paper 18325 (July 2012).
21. See Charles Morris, “The Measurement Problem,” in The Surgeons: Life and Death in a Top Heart Center (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 2007), for an extended treatment.
22. OECD, “Health: Key Tables from OECD—Total Expenditure on Health Per Capita at Current Prices and PPPs,” October 30, 2012, http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/total-expenditure-on-health-per-capita-2012–2_hlthxp-cap-table-2012–2-en (accessed March 17, 2013).
1. Congressional Budget Office, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023,” February 2013.
2. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), “Economic Output, Analysis and Forecasts: Long-Term Baseline Projections,” http://stats.oecd.org/BrandedView.aspx?oecd_bv_id=eo-data-en&doi=data-00645-en (accessed March 15, 2013).
3. Uwe E. Reinhardt, Peter S. Hussey, and Gerard F. Anderson, “U.S. Health Care Spending in an International Context,” Health Affairs 23:3 (May-June 2004): 10–25, at 19–20.
4. Mari Iwata, “Chevron: Most LNG Prices to Remain Linked to Oil,” Wall Street Journal, December 5, 2012.
5. Charles River Associates, “US Manufacturing and LNG Exports: Economic Contributions to the US Economy and Impacts on US Natural Gas Prices,” February 25, 2013, 22, 33–34. The report was financed by the Dow Chemical Company. It is available online at http://www.lnglawblog.com/03152013dow/.
6. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “SIPRI Military Expenditure Data Base” (updated through 2011), http://www.sipri.org/databases/milex (accessed March 15, 2013).
7. Ibid. Calculation by author.
8. OECD, “Revenue Statistics—Comparative Tables,” http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=21699 (accessed March 15, 2013).