Contents
Chapter One: Bonds Are Safer Than Stocks
Stocks Are Less Volatile Than Bonds?
Stocks Are Positive Much More Often Than Not
Stocks Are Positive—And Overwhelmingly Beat Bonds
Chapter Two: Asset Allocation Short-Cuts
The Critical Asset Allocation Decision
Chapter Three: Volatility and Only Volatility
Oft-Overlooked Interest Rate Risk
When Opportunity Doesn’t Knock
Chapter Four: More Volatile Than Ever
Volatility Is Volatile—And Not Trending Higher
Chapter Five: The Holy Grail—Capital Preservation and Growth
Capital Preservation Requires No Volatility . . .
. . . But Growth Requires Volatility!
Chapter Six: The GDP–Stock Mismatch Crash
GDP Measures Output, Not Economic Health
Shrinking Government Spending Is Good, Not Bad
Stock Returns Are Superior—And Variable
Chapter Eight: High Dividends for Sure Income
Chapter Nine: The Perma-Superiority of Small-Cap Value
Chapter Ten: Wait Until You’re Sure
Chapter Eleven: Stop-Losses Stop Losses
Stock Prices Aren’t Serially Correlated
Chapter Twelve: High Unemployment Kills Stocks
The Economy Leads, Unemployment Lags
Consumer Spending Is Incredibly Stable
Producers in the Driver’s Seat
Chapter Thirteen: Over-Indebted America
The Government Is a Stupid Spender
The Real Issue . . . Affordability
Cheaper Debt After the Downgrade
Dependent on the Kindness of Strangers?
Chapter Fourteen: Strong Dollar, Strong Stocks
Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar—Does It Matter?
Chapter Fifteen: Turmoil Troubles Stocks
Chapter Sixteen: News You Can Use
Ground Rules for Interpreting Media Profitably
Chapter Seventeen: Too Good to Be True
Separate Decision Maker and Custody
High and Steady . . . and Fake