Contents

Preface

Chapter One: Bonds Are Safer Than Stocks

Bonds Are Volatile, Too

Stocks Are Less Volatile Than Bonds?

Blame Evolution

Stocks Are Positive Much More Often Than Not

Stocks Are Positive—And Overwhelmingly Beat Bonds

The Stock Evolution

Chapter Two: Asset Allocation Short-Cuts

The Critical Asset Allocation Decision

Getting Time Horizon Right

Inflation’s Insidious Impact

Chapter Three: Volatility and Only Volatility

Oft-Overlooked Interest Rate Risk

Portfolio Risk and Food Risk

When Opportunity Doesn’t Knock

Chapter Four: More Volatile Than Ever

Volatility Goes Up, Too

Volatility Isn’t Predictive

Volatility Is Volatile—And Not Trending Higher

Hug a Speculator

Chapter Five: The Holy Grail—Capital Preservation and Growth

Capital Preservation Requires No Volatility . . .

. . . But Growth Requires Volatility!

Chapter Six: The GDP–Stock Mismatch Crash

GDP Measures Output, Not Economic Health

Shrinking Government Spending Is Good, Not Bad

Too Far, Too Fast?

What Are Stocks?

Chapter Seven: 10% Forever!

Stock Returns Are Superior—And Variable

I See 5% CDs

Chapter Eight: High Dividends for Sure Income

No Guarantees!

Homegrown Dividends

Chapter Nine: The Perma-Superiority of Small-Cap Value

Perma-Love or Heat Chasing?

Capitalism Basics

Chapter Ten: Wait Until You’re Sure

TGH at Work

The V-Bounce

Chapter Eleven: Stop-Losses Stop Losses

The Stop-Loss Mechanics

Stock Prices Aren’t Serially Correlated

Pick a Level, Any Level

Chapter Twelve: High Unemployment Kills Stocks

See It Like a CEO

The Economy Leads, Unemployment Lags

The Stock Market Really Leads

Consumer Spending Is Incredibly Stable

Producers in the Driver’s Seat

Chapter Thirteen: Over-Indebted America

The Government Is a Stupid Spender

Putting Debt in Perspective

Question Everything!

The Real Issue . . . Affordability

Cheaper Debt After the Downgrade

Dependent on the Kindness of Strangers?

Nowhere to Go

Chapter Fourteen: Strong Dollar, Strong Stocks

Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar—Does It Matter?

Think Inside the 4-Box

Chapter Fifteen: Turmoil Troubles Stocks

Chapter Sixteen: News You Can Use

Look the Other Way

A Sentiment Indicator

Interpret It to Use It

Ground Rules for Interpreting Media Profitably

Chapter Seventeen: Too Good to Be True

Separate Decision Maker and Custody

High and Steady . . . and Fake

Super-High . . . and Also Fake

Scams of All Stripes

Acknowledgments

About the Authors