Notes
Chapter 1
1 These quotes can all be found in Mullis’s autobiography: Mullis, K. (1999), Dancing Naked in the Mind Field, London: Bloomsbury. He also expresses them on his website: https://www.karymullis.com/pdf/On_AIDS_and_Global_Warming.pdf. They are frequently quoted on web pages and forums discussing astrology, climate change and HIV/AIDS conspiracy theories. For instance, he is quoted on the website of the prominent AIDS denialist, Peter Duesberg: http://www.duesberg.com/viewpoints/kintro.html. And numerous video interviews of him describing AIDS conspiracy theories can be seen on YouTube: e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IifgAvXU3ts&t=7s and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rycOLjoPbeo.
2 Graber, M.L. (2013), ‘The Incidence of Diagnostic Error in Medicine’, BMJ Quality and Safety, 22(Suppl. 2), 21?7.
3 It’s worth noting that Edward de Bono has described an ‘intelligence trap’ in his books on learning. Similarly, the Harvard University psychologist David Perkins refers, in passing, to ‘intelligence traps’ in his book Outsmarting IQ (Simon & Schuster, 1995). Perkins’ ideas, in particular, have informed some elements of my argument, and I would thoroughly recommend reading his work.
4 According to the classicist Christopher Rowe, these details of Socrates’ appearance and life are broadly consistent across multiple sources. All of the quotations have also been taken from Rowe’s translation of Plato’s Apology contained in this volume: Rowe, C. (2010), The Last Days of Socrates, London: Penguin (Kindle Edition). The parallels between Socrates’ trial and the research on the bias blind spot may not be the only instance in which Greek philosophy pre-empted behavioural economics and psychology. In an article for the online magazine Aeon, the journalist Nick Romeo finds examples of framing, confirmation bias and anchoring in Plato’s teaching. See Romeo, N. (2017), ‘Platonically Irrational’, Aeon, https://aeon.co/essays/what-plato-knew-about-behavioural-economics-a-lot.
5 Descartes, R. (1637), A Discourse on the Method, trans. Maclean, I. (2006), Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 5.
6 Shurkin, J. (1992), Terman’s Kids: The Groundbreaking Study of How the Gifted Grow Up, Boston, MA: Little, Brown, p. 122.
7 Shurkin, Terman’s Kids, pp. 51?3.
8 Shurkin, Terman’s Kids, pp. 109?16.
9 Shurkin, Terman’s Kids, pp. 54?8.
10 Terman, L.M. (1922), ‘Were We Born That Way?’ World’s Work, 44, 657?9. Quoted in White, J. (2006), Intelligence, Destiny and Education: The Ideological Roots of Intelligence Testing, London: Routledge, p. 24.
11 Terman, L.M. (1930), ‘Trails to Psychology’, in Murchison, C. (ed.), History of Psychology in Autobiography, Vol. 2, p. 297.
12 Terman, ‘Trails to Psychology’, p. 303.
13 Nicolas, S., et al. (2013), ‘Sick Or Slow? On the Origins of Intelligence as a Psychological Object’, Intelligence, 41 (5), 699?711.
14 For more information on Binet’s views, see White, S. H. (2000), ‘Conceptual Foundations of IQ Testing’, Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 6, 33?43.
15 Binet, A. (1909), Les idées modernes sur les enfants, Paris: Flammarion.
16 Perkins, D. (1995), Outsmarting IQ: The Emerging Science of Learnable Intelligence, New York: Free Press, p. 44.
17 Terman, L.M. (1916), The Measurement of Intelligence: An Explanation of and a Complete Guide for the Use of the Stanford Revision and Extension of the Binet-Simon Intelligence Scale, Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin, p. 46.
18 Terman, The Measurement of Intelligence, p. 6.
19 Terman, The Measurement of Intelligence, p. 11.
20 Shurkin, Terman’s Kids.
21 Shurkin, Terman’s Kids, pp. 196?292.
22 Honan, W. (9 March 2002), ‘Shelley Mydans, 86, author and former POW’, New York Times.
23 McGraw, C. (29 December 1988), ‘Creator of ‘‘Lucy’’ TV show dies’, Los Angeles Times.
24 Oppenheimer, J. and Oppenheimer, G. (1996), Laughs, Luck ? and Lucy: How I Came to Create the Most Popular Sitcom of All Time. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, p. 100.
25 Terman, ‘Trails to Psychology, p 297.
26 In China, for instance, most schools maintain records of each child’s performance on non-verbal reasoning tests. See Higgins, L.T. and Xiang, G. (2009), ‘The Development and Use of Intelligence Tests in China’, Psychology and Developing Societies, 21(2), 257–75.
27 Madhok, D. (10 September 2012), ‘Cram Schools Boom Widens India Class Divide’, Reuters, https://in.reuters.com/article/india-cramschools-kota/cram-schools-boom-widens-indias-class-divide-idINDEE8890GW20120910.
28 Ritchie, S.J., et al. (2015), ‘Beyond a Bigger Brain: Multivariable Structural Brain Imaging and Intelligence’, Intelligence, 51, 47?56.
29 Gregory, M.D., Kippenhan, J.S., Dickinson, D., Carrasco, J., Mattay, V.S., Weinberger, D.R. and Berman, K.F. (2016), ‘Regional Variations in Brain Gyrification are Associated with General Cognitive Ability in Humans, Current Biology, 26(10), 1301?5.
30 Li, Y., Liu, Y., Li, J., Qin, W., Li, K., Yu, C. and Jiang, T. (2009), ‘Brain Anatomical Network and Intelligence’, PLoS Computational Biology, 5(5), e1000395.
31 For further discussion of this, see Kaufman, S. (2013), ‘Ungifted: Intelligence Redefined, New York: Basic Books (Kindle Edition). See, in particular, his review of the research by the Posse Foundation (pp. 286?8), who selected university students based on a wide variety of measures besides traditional, abstract intelligence – including in-depth interviews and group discussions that measure qualities such as leadership, communication, problem solving and collaborative skills. Although their SAT scores are well below the norm for their university, their subsequent success at university is roughly equal to the average of other students.
32 The following paper, written by some of the most prominent IQ researchers, explicitly makes this point: Neisser, U., et al. (1996), ‘Intelligence: Knowns and Unknowns’ American Psychologist, 51(2), 77?101. See also the following paper, which provides a further analysis of this idea, including the following statement: ‘Over one hundred years of research on intelligence testing has shown that scores on standardized tests of intelligence predict a wide range of outcomes, but even the strongest advocates of intelligence testing agree that IQ scores (and their near cousins such as the SATs) leave a large portion of the variance unexplained when predicting real-life behaviors.’ Butler, H.A., Pentoney, C. and Bong, M.P. (2017), ‘Predicting Real-world Outcomes: Critical Thinking Ability Is a Better Predictor of Life Decisions than Intelligence’, Thinking Skills and Creativity, 25, 38?46.
33 Schmidt, F.L. and Hunter, J. (2004), ‘General Mental Ability in the World of Work: Occupational Attainment and Job Performance’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 86(1), 162?73.
34 Neisser, U., et al., ‘Intelligence’. Strenze, T. (2007), ‘Intelligence and Socioeconomic Success: A Meta-Analytic Review of Longitudinal Research’, Intelligence, 35, 401?26.
35 For a discussion of the difficulties with linking IQ to job performance, see: Byington, E. and Felps, W. (2010), ‘Why Do IQ Scores Predict Job Performance? An Alternative, Sociological Explanation’, Research in Organizational Behavior, 30, 175?202. Richardson, K. and Norgate, S.H. (2015), ‘Does IQ Really Predict Job Performance?’ Applied Developmental Science, 19(3), 153?69. Ericsson, K.A. (2014), ‘Why Expert Performance Is Special and Cannot Be Extrapolated From Studies of Performance in the General Population: A Response to Criticisms’, Intelligence, 45, 81?103.
36 Feldman, D. (1984), ‘A Follow-Up of Subjects Scoring Above 180 IQ in Terman’s Genetic Studies of Genius’, Exceptional Children, 50(6), 518?23.
37 Shurkin, Terman’s Kids, pp. 183?7.
38 Shurkin, Terman’s Kids, p. 190.
39 For a more recent analysis coming to broadly the same conclusions, see also Dean Simonton’s analysis of the Terman studies of genius. ‘Not only do differences in general intelligence explain little variance in achieved eminence, but the explanatory power of intelligence is apparently also contingent on having intelligence defined in more domain specific terms. In essence, intellectual giftedness must be reconceived as the degree of acceleration in expertise acquisition within an individually chosen domain. Furthermore, personality differences and early developmental experiences have an even bigger part to play in the emergence of genius, although these influential factors must also be tailored to the specific domain of achievement.’ Simonton, D.K. (2016), ‘Reverse Engineering Genius: Historiometric Studies of Superlative Talent’, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1377, 3–9.
40 Elements of this interview first appeared in an article I wrote for BBC Future in 2016: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160929-our-iqs-have-never-been-higher-but-it-hasnt-made-us-smart
41 Clark, C.M., Lawlor-Savage, L. and Goghari, V.M. (2016), ‘The Flynn Effect: A Quantitative Commentary on Modernity and Human Intelligence’, Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, 14(2), 39–53. In line with the idea of scientific spectacles, recent research has shown that the Flynn Effect can largely be accounted for in the time people take to answer the questions. Younger generations do it more rapidly, as if abstract thinking has been automated and become second nature: Must, O. and Must, A. (2018), ‘Speed and the Flynn Effect’, Intelligence, 68, 37–47.
42 Some modern IQ researchers have in fact suggested that training in these abstract thinking skills could be a way of closing the social divide between low- and high-IQ individuals. But the Flynn Effect would suggest that this would be of limited benefit for things such as creative thinking. See, for instance, Asbury, K. and Plomin, R. (2014), G Is for Genes, Oxford: Wiley Blackwell, pp. 149–87.
43 In fact, there is some evidence that creativity has actually decreased over the same period, both in terms of lab-based measures of creative problem solving and real-world measures of innovation, such as the average number of patents per person. See Kim, K.H. (2011), ‘The Creativity Crisis: The Decrease in Creative Thinking Scores on the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking’, Creativity Research Journal, 23(4), 285–95. Kaufman, J. (2018), ‘Creativity as a Stepping Stone toward a Brighter Future’, Journal of Intelligence, 6(2), 21. Huebner, J. (2005), ‘A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(8), 980–6.
44 Flynn, J.R. (1998), ‘IQ Gains Over Time: Toward Finding the Causes’, in Neisser, U. (ed.), The Rising Curve: Long-Term Changes in IQ and Related Measures, Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, pp. 25?66.
45 Harms, P.D. and Credé, M. (2010), ‘Remaining Issues in Emotional Intelligence Research: Construct Overlap, Method Artifacts, and Lack of Incremental Validity’, Industrial and Organizational Psychology: Perspectives on Science and Practice, 3(2), 154–8. See also Fiori, M., Antonietti, J.P., Mikolajczak, M., Luminet, O., Hansenne, M. and Rossier, J. (2014), ‘What Is the Ability Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT) Good For? An Evaluation Using Item Response Theory’, PLOS One, 9(6), e98827.
46 See Waterhouse, L. (2006), ‘Multiple Intelligences, the Mozart Effect, and Emotional Intelligence: A Critical Review’, Educational Psychologist, 41(4), 207–25. And Waterhouse, L. (2006), ‘Inadequate Evidence for Multiple Intelligences, Mozart Effect, and Emotional Intelligence Theories’, Educational Psychologist, 41(4), 247?55.
47 In the following paper, Robert Sternberg contrasts his theories to multiple intelligences and EQ: Sternberg, R.J. (1999), ‘Successful Intelligence: Finding a Balance’, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 3(11), 436?42.
48 Hagbloom, S.J., et al. (2002), ‘The 100 Most Eminent Psychologists of the 20th Century’, Review of General Psychology, 6(2), 139?52.
49 Sternberg describes this journey in more detail in the following web post: http://www.cdl.org/articles/the-teachers-we-never-forget/.
50 For a more in-depth discussion, see Sternberg, R.J. and Preiss, D.D. (eds) (2010), Innovations in Educational Psychology: Perspectives on Learning, Teaching, and Human Development. New York: Springer, pp. 406?7.
51 Sternberg, ‘Successful Intelligence’.
52 See, for instance, Hedlund, J., Wilt, J.M., Nebel, K.L., Ashford, S.J. and Sternberg, R.J. (2006), ‘Assessing Practical Intelligence in Business School Admissions: A Supplement to the Graduate Management Admissions Test’, Learning and Individual Differences, 16(2), 101–27.
53 See the following PBS interview with Sternberg for a more in-depth discussion of these ideas: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/sats/interviews/sternberg.html.
54 For summaries of these results, see Sternberg, R.J., Castejón, J.L., Prieto, M.D., Hautamäki, J. and Grigorenko, E.L. (2001), ‘Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Sternberg Triarchic Abilities Test in Three International Samples: An Empirical Test of the Triarchic Theory of Intelligence’, European Journal of Psychological Assessment, 17(1), 1?16. Sternberg, R.J. (2015), ‘Successful Intelligence: A Model for Testing Intelligence Beyond IQ Tests’, European Journal of Education and Psychology, 8(2), 76?84. Sternberg, R.J. (2008), ‘Increasing Academic Excellence and Enhancing Diversity Are Compatible Goals’, Educational Policy, 22(4), 487?514. Sternberg, R.J., Grigorenko, E.L. and Zhang, L.F. (2008), ‘Styles Of Learning and Thinking Matter in Instruction and Assessment’, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 3(6), 486?506.
55 Sternberg, R.J. (2000), Practical Intelligence in Everyday Life, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 144?200. See also Wagner, R.K. and Sternberg, R.J. (1985), ‘Practical Intelligence in Real-world Pursuits: The Role of Tacit Knowledge’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49(2), 436?58. See also Cianciolo, A.T., et al. (2006), ‘Tacit Knowledge, Practical Intelligence and Expertise’, in Ericsson, K.A. (ed.), Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. For an independent discussion of Sternberg’s studies, see Perkins, D. (1995), Outsmarting IQ: The Emerging Science of Learnable Intelligence, New York: Free Press, pp. 83?4. And Nisbett, R.E., Aronson, J., Blair, C., Dickens, W., Flynn, J., Halpern, D.F. and Turkheimer, E. (2012), ‘Intelligence: New Findings and Theoretical Developments’, American Psychologist, 67(2), 130. And Mackintosh, N.J. (2011), IQ and Human Intelligence, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 222–43.
56 In 1996, the APA’s comprehensive report on ‘Intelligence: Known and Unknowns’ concluded that ‘although this work is not without its critics, the results to this point tend to support the distinction between analytic and practical intelligence’. Neisser, et al., ‘Intelligence’.
57 See, for instance: Imai, L. and Gelfand, M.J. (2010), ‘The Culturally Intelligent Negotiator: The Impact of Cultural Intelligence (CQ) on Negotiation Sequences and Outcomes’, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 112(2), 83–98. Alon, I. and Higgins, J.M. (2005), ‘Global Leadership Success through Emotional and Cultural Intelligences’, Business Horizons, 48(6), 501–12. Rockstuhl, T., Seiler, S., Ang, S., Van Dyne, L. and Annen, H. (2011), ‘Beyond General Intelligence (IQ) and Emotional Intelligence (EQ): The Role of Cultural Intelligence (CQ) on Cross-Border Leadership Effectiveness in a Globalized World’, Journal of Social Issues, 67(4), 825–40.
58 Marks, R. (2007), ‘Lewis M. Terman: Individual Differences and the Construction of Social Reality’, Educational Theory, 24(4), 336?55.
59 Terman, L.M. (1916), The Measurement of Intelligence: An Explanation of and a Complete Guide for the Use of the Stanford Revision and Extension of the Binet-Simon Intelligence Scale. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.
60 Lippmann, W. (25 October 1922), ‘The Mental Age of Americans’, New Republic, p. 213.
61 Terman, L.M. (27 December 1922), ‘The Great Conspiracy or the Impulse Imperious of Intelligence Testers, Psychoanalyzed and Exposed By Mr Lippmann’, New Republic, p. 116.
62 Shurkin, Terman’s Kids, p. 190.
63 Minton, H.L. (1988), Lewis M. Terman: Pioneer in Psychological Testing, New York, New York University Press.
Chapter 2
1 These passages draw on the following material: Ernst, B.M.L. and Carrington, H. (1933), Houdini and Conan Doyle: The Story of a Strange Friendship, London: Hutchinson. Conan Doyle, A.C. (1930), The Edge of the Unknown, London: John Murray. Kalush, W. and Sloman, L. (2006), The Secret Life of Houdini: The Making of America’s First Superhero, New York: Atria. Sandford, C. (2011), Houdini and Conan Doyle, London: Duckworth Overlook. Gardner, L. (10 August 2015), ‘Harry Houdini and Arthur Conan Doyle: A Friendship Split by Spiritualism’, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/aug/10/houdini-and-conan-Conan Doyle-impossible-edinburgh-festival.
2 Wilk, T. (2 May 2012), ‘Houdini, Sir Doyle Do AC’, Atlantic City Weekly, http://www.atlanticcityweekly.com/news_and_views/houdini-sir-doyle-do-ac/article_a16ab3ba-95b9-50e1-a2e0-eca01dd8eaae.html.
3 In Of Miracles, the eighteenth-century philosopher David Hume put it like this: ‘No testimony is sufficient to establish a miracle, unless the testimony be of such a kind, that its falsehood would be more miraculous, than the fact, which it endeavours to establish.’ In other words, an extraordinary claim requires extraordinary evidence that discounts any physical explanations.
4 Fox newsreel of an interview with Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1927). Available at Public Domain Review, https://publicdomainreview.org/collections/sir-arthur-conan-doyle-interview-1927/.
5 Eby, M. (21 March 2012), ‘Hocus Pocus’, Paris Review blog, https://www.theparisreview.org/blog/2012/03/21/hocus-pocus/.
6 Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1974), ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’, Science, 185, 1124?31.
7 For an accessible description of this argument, see Stanovich, K.E. (2009), ‘Rational and Irrational Thought: The Thinking That IQ Tests Miss’, Scientific American Mind, 20(6), 34?9.
8 There is good evidence, for instance, that children naturally reject information if it contradicts ‘common sense’ theories of the world, and they need to learn the scientific method from the people they trust. So a child growing up in an environment that rejects science will naturally adopt those views, regardless of their intelligence. Bloom, P. and Weisberg, D.S. (2007), ‘Childhood Origins of Adult Resistance to Science’, Science, 316(5827), 996–7.
9 ‘Knowledge projection from an island of false beliefs might explain the phenomenon of otherwise intelligent people who get caught in a domain-specific web of falsity that, because of projection tendencies, they cannot escape. Such individuals often use their considerable computational power to rationalize their beliefs and to ward off the arguments of skeptics.’ Stanovich, K.E., West, R.F. and Toplak, M.E. (2016), The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Kindle Edition (Kindle Locations 3636–9).
10 Stanovich, K. (1993), ‘Dysrationalia: A New Specific Learning Difficulty’, Journal of Learning Difficulties, 26(8), 501?15.
11 For a helpful explanation of the principles, see Swinscow, T.D.V. (1997), Statisics at Square One, ninth edition. Available online at http://www.bmj.com/about-bmj/resources-readers/publications/statistics-square-one/11-correlation-and-regression.
12 Stanovich, West and Toplak, The Rationality Quotient (Kindle Locations 2757, 2838). Some early studies had suggested the correlations to be even weaker. See Stanovich, K.E. and West, R.F. (2008), ‘On the Relative Independence of Thinking Biases and Cognitive Ability’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 94(4), 672?95.
13 Stanovich and West, ‘On the Relative Independence of Thinking Biases and Cognitive Ability’.
14 Xue, G., He, Q., Lei, X., Chen, C., Liu, Y., Chen, C., et al. (2012), ‘The Gambler’s Fallacy Is Associated with Weak Affective Decision Making but Strong Cognitive Ability’, PLOS One, 7(10): e47019, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0047019.
15 Schwitzgebel, Eric and Fiery Cushman (2015), ‘Philosophers’ Biased Judgments Persist Despite Training, Expertise and Reflection’, Cognition, 141, 127–37.
16 West, R.F., Meserve, R.J. and Stanovich, K.E. (2012), ‘Cognitive Sophistication Does Not Attenuate the Bias Blind Spot’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 103(3), 506?19.
17 Stanovich, West and Toplak, The Rationality Quotient.
18 Stanovich, K.E. and West, R.F. (2014), ‘What Intelligence Tests Miss’, Psychologist, 27, 80?3, https://thepsychologist.bps.org.uk/volume-27/edition-2/what-intelligence-tests-miss.
19 Stanovich, West and Toplak, The Rationality Quotient (Kindle Location 2344).
20 Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M. and Fischhoff, B. (2007), ‘Individual Differences in Adult Decision Making Competence’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92(5), 938?56.
21 Kanazawa, S. and Hellberg, J.E.E.U. (2010), ‘Intelligence and Substance Use’, Review of General Psychology, 14(4), 382?96.
22 Zagorsky, J. (2007), ‘Do You Have To Be Smart To Be Rich? The Impact of IQ on Wealth, Income and Financial Distress’, Intelligence, 35, 489?501.
23 Swann, M. (8 March 2013). The professor, the bikini model, and the suitcase full of trouble. New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/10/magazine/the-professor-the-bikini-model-and-the-suitcase-full-of-trouble.html
24 Rice, T.W. (2003), ‘Believe It Or Not: Religious and Other Paranormal Beliefs in the United States’, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 42(1), 95–106.
25 Bouvet, R. and Bonnefon, J.F. (2015), ‘Non-reflective Thinkers Are Predisposed To Attribute Supernatural Causation To Uncanny Experiences’, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 41(7), 955?61.
26 Cooper, J. (1990), The Case of the Cottingley Fairies, London: Robert Hale.
27 Conan Doyle, A.C. (1922), The Coming of the Fairies, London: Hodder & Stoughton.
28 Cooper, J. (1982), ‘Cottingley: At Last the Truth’, The Unexplained, 117, 2338?40.
29 Miller, R. (2008), The Adventures of Arthur Conan Doyle, London: Harvill Secker, p. 403.
30 Hyman, R. (2002), in Why Smart People Can Be So Stupid, ed. Sternberg, R., New Haven: Yale University Press, pp. 18?19.
31 Perkins, D.N., Farady, M. and Bushey, B. (1991), ‘Everyday Reasoning and the Roots of Intelligence’, in Perkins, D., Voss, James F. and Segal, Judith W. (eds), Informal Reasoning and Education, Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, pp. 83?105.
32 For a fuller discussion of this study, see Perkins, D.N. (1995), Outsmarting IQ, New York: Free Press, pp. 131?5.
33 Perkins, D.N. and Tishman, S. (2001), ‘Dispositional Aspects of Intelligence’, in Collis, J.M. and Messick, S. (eds), Intelligence and Personality: Bridging the Gap in Theory and Measurement, Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, pp. 233?57.
34 Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Dawson, E.C. and Slovic, P. (2017), ‘Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-government’, Behavioural Public Policy, 1, 54?86.
35 For a fuller discussion of the ways that increased knowledge can backfire, see Flynn, D.J., Nyhan, B. and Reifler, J. (2017), ‘The Nature and Origins of Misperceptions: Understanding False and Unsupported Beliefs about Politics’, Advances in Political Psychology, 38(S1), 127?50. And also Taber, C.S. and Lodge, M. (2006), ‘Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs’, American Journal of Political Science, 50, 755–69.
36 Kahan, D.M., et al. (2012), ‘The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks’, Nature Climate Change, 2(10), 732?5. Kahan, D.M., Wittlin, M., Peters, E., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. and Mandel, G.N. (2011), ‘The Tragedy of the Risk-perception Commons: Culture Conflict, Rationality Conflict, and Climate Change’, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1871503. Bolsen, T., Druckman, J.N. and Cook, F.L. (2015), ‘Citizens’, Scientists’, and Policy Advisors’ Beliefs about Global Warming’, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 658(1), 271?95.
37 Hamilton, L.C., Hartter, J. and Saito, K. (2015), ‘Trust in Scientists on Climate Change and Vaccines’, SAGE Open, 5(3), doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244015602752.
38 Kahan, D.M., Landrum, A., Carpenter, K., Helft, L. and Hall Jamieson, K. (2017), ‘Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing’, Political Psychology, 38(S1), 179?99.
39 Kahan, D.M. (2017), ‘Ordinary Science Intelligence’: A Science-Comprehension Measure for Study of Risk and Science’, Journal of Risk Research, 20(8), 995?1016.
40 Nyhan, B., Reifler, J. and Ubel, P.A. (2013), ‘The Hazards of Correcting Myths about Health Care Reform’, Medical Care, 51(2), 127?32. For a discussion of the misperceptions around ObamaCare, see Politifact’s Lie of the Year: ‘Death Panels’, Politifact, 18 December 2009, http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/dec/18/politifact-lie-year-death-panels/.
41 Koehler, J.J. (1993), ‘The Influence of Prior Beliefs on Scientific Judgments of Evidence Quality’, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 56(1), 28–55. See also Dan Kahan’s discussion of the paper, in light of recent research on motivated reasoning: Kahan, D.M. (2016), ‘The Politically Motivated Reasoning Paradigm, Part 2: What Politically Motivated Reasoning Is and How to Measure It’, in Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences, doi: 10.1002/9781118900772.
42 Including, apparently, $25,000 from his US book tour of 1922. Ernst, B.M.L. and Carrington, H. (1971), Houdini and Conan Doyle: The Story of a Strange Friendship, New York: Benjamin Blom, p. 147.
43 In this recording from the British Library, Conan Doyle explains the many benefits he has drawn from his belief in spiritualism: http://britishlibrary.typepad.co.uk/files/listen-to-sir-arthur-conan-doyle-on-spiritualism.mp3.
44 Fox newsreel of an interview with Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1927). Available at Public Domain Review, https://publicdomainreview.org/collections/sir-arthur-conan-doyle-interview-1927/.
45 As his biographer, Russell Miller, describes: ‘Once Conan Doyle made up his mind, he was unstoppable, impervious to argument, blind to contradictory evidence, untroubled by self-doubt.’ Miller, The Adventures of Arthur Conan Doyle, chapter 20.
46 Bechtel, S. and Stains, L.R. (2017), Through a Glass Darkly: Sir Arthur Conan Doyle and the Quest to Solve the Greatest Mystery of All, New York: St Martin’s Press, p. 147.
47 Panek, R. (2005), ‘The Year of Albert Einstein’, Smithsonian Magazine, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-year-of-albert-einstein-75841381/.
48 Further examples can be found in the following interview with the physicist John Moffat, including the fact that Einstein denied strong evidence for the existence of black holes: Folger, T. (September 2004), ‘Einstein’s Grand Quest for a Unified Theory’, Discover, http://discovermagazine.com/2004/sep/einsteins-grand-quest. See also Mackie, G. (2015), ‘Einstein’s Folly: How the Search for a Unified Theory Stumped Him until His Dying Day’, The Conversation, http://theconversation.com/einsteins-folly-how-the-search-for-a-unified-theory-stumped-him-to-his-dying-day-49646.
49 Isaacson, W. (2007), Einstein: His Life and Universe, London: Simon & Schuster, pp. 341?7.
50 Schweber, S.S. (2008), Einstein and Oppenheimer: The Meaning of Genius, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, p. 282. See also Oppenheimer, R. (17 March 1966), ‘On Albert Einstein’, New York Review of Books, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1966/03/17/on-albert-einstein/.
51 Hook, S. (1987), Out of Step: An Unquiet Life in the 20th Century. London: Harper & Row. See also Riniolo, T. and Nisbet, L. (2007), ‘The Myth of Consistent Skepticism: The Cautionary Case of Albert Einstein’, Skeptical Inquirer, 31(1), http://www.csicop.org/si/show/myth_of_consistent_skepticism_the_cautionary_case_of_albert_einstein.
52 Eysenck, H. (1957), Sense and Nonsense in Psychology, Harmondsworth: Penguin, p. 108.
53 These are exceptional cases. But the issue of bias in the day-to-day workings of science has come to increasing prominence in recent years, with concerns that many scientists may engage in the wishful thinking that had plagued Conan Doyle. In the 1990s and early 2000s, the psychologist Kevin Dunbar spent years studying the thinking of scientists at eight different laboratories – attending their weekly meetings and discussing their latest findings. He found that myside thinking was rife, with many scientists unconsciously distorting the interpretation of their experimental results to fit their current hypothesis, or deliberately searching for new and more convoluted reasons to make their hypotheses fit the data. Medical researchers appear particularly likely to cling to newsworthy results, while overlooking serious methodological flaws. See, for instance, Dunbar, K. (2000), ‘How Scientists Think in the Real World’, Journal of Applied Developmental Psychology, 21(1), 49?58. Wilson, T.D., DePaulo, B.M., Mook, D.G. and Klaaren, K.J. (1993), ‘Scientists’ Evaluations of Research: The Biasing Effects of the Importance of the Topic’, Psychological Science, 4(5), 322?5.
54 Offit, P. (2013), ‘The Vitamin Myth: Why We Think We Need Supplements’, The Atlantic, 19 July 2013, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/07/the-vitamin-myth-why-we-think-we-need-supplements/277947/.
55 Enserink, M. (2010), ‘French Nobelist Escapes ‘‘Intellectual Terror’’ To Pursue Radical Ideas In China’, Science, 330(6012), 1732. For a further discussion of these controversies, see: Butler, D. (2012). Nobel fight over African HIV centre. Nature, 486(7403), 301-2. https://www.nature.com/news/nobel-fight-over-african-hiv-centre-1.10847
56 King, G. (2011), ‘Edison vs. Westinghouse: A Shocking Rivalry’, Smithsonian Magazine, http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/edison-vs-westinghouse-a-shocking-rivalry-102146036/.
57 Essig, M. (2003), Edison and the Electric Chair, Stroud, Gloucestershire: Sutton.
58 Essig, Edison and the Electric Chair, p. 289.
59 Essig, Edison and the Electric Chair, p. 289.
60 Isaacson, W. (2011), Steve Jobs, London: Little, Brown, pp. 422?55. Swaine, J. (21 October 2011), ‘Steve Jobs “Regretted Trying to Beat Cancer with Alternative Medicine for So Long” ’, Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/8841347/Steve-Jobs-regretted-trying-to-beat-cancer-with-alternative-medicine-for-so-long.html.
61 Shultz, S., Nelson, E. and Dunbar, R.I.M. (2012), ‘Hominin Cognitive Evolution: Identifying Patterns and Processes in the Fossil and Archaeological Record’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367(1599), 2130–40.
62 Mercier, H. (2016), ‘The Argumentative Theory: Predictions and Empirical Evidence’, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 20(9), 689?700.
Chapter 3
1 The details of Brandon Mayfield’s experiences have been taken from my own interviews, as well as his press interviews, including a video interview with Open Democracy (30 November 2006) at https://www.democracynow.org/2006/11/30/exclusive_falsely_jailed_attorney_brandon_mayfield. I am also indebted to Mayfield, S. and Mayfield, B. (2015), Improbable Cause: The War on Terror’s Assault on the Bill of Rights, Salem, NH: Divertir. I have cross-checked many of the details with the Office of the Inspector General’s report on the FBI’s handling of Mayfield’s case.
2 Jennifer Mnookin of UCLA, in ‘Fingerprints on Trial’, BBC World Service, 29 March 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00fvhl3.
3 Office of the Inspector General (2006), ‘A Review of the FBI’s Handling of the Brandon Mayfield Case’, p. 80, https://oig.justice.gov/special/s0601/final.pdf.
4 Office of the Inspector General, ‘A Review of the FBI’s Handling of the Brandon Mayfield Case, p. 80.
5 Kassin, S.M., Dror, I.E. and Kukucka, J. (2013), ‘The Forensic Confirmation Bias: Problems, Perspectives, and Proposed Solutions’, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 2(1), 42?52.
6 Fisher, R. (2011), ‘Erudition Be Damned, Ignorance Really Is Bliss’, New Scientist, 211(2823), 39?41.
7 Kruger, J. and Dunning, D. (1999), ‘Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-assessments’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121?34.
8 Dunning, D. (2011), ‘The Dunning–Kruger Effect: On Being Ignorant of One’s Own Ignorance’, in Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 44, Cambridge, MA: Academic Press, pp. 247?96.
9 Chiu, M.M. and Klassen, R.M. (2010), ‘Relations of Mathematics Self-Concept and Its Calibration with Mathematics Achievement: Cultural Differences among Fifteen-Year-Olds in 34 Countries’, Learning and Instruction, 20(1), 2?17.
10 See, for example, ‘Why Losers Have Delusions of Grandeur’, New York Post, 23 May 2010, https://nypost.com/2010/05/23/why-losers-have-delusions-of-grandeur/. Lee, C. (2016), ‘Revisiting Why Incompetents Think They Are Awesome’, Ars Technica, 4 November 2016, https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/11/revisiting-why-incompetents-think-theyre-awesome/. Flam, F. (2017), ‘Trump’s “Dangerous Disability”? The Dunning?Kruger Effect’, Bloomberg, 12 May 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-12/trump-s-dangerous-disability-it-s-the-dunning-kruger-effect.
11 Fisher, M. and Keil, F.C. (2016), ‘The Curse of Expertise: When More Knowledge Leads to Miscalibrated Explanatory Insight’, Cognitive Science, 40(5), 1251?69.
12 Son, L.K. and Kornell, N. (2010), ‘The Virtues of Ignorance’, Behavioural Processes, 83(2), 207?12.
13 Fisher and Keil, ‘The Curse of Expertise’.
14 Ottati, V., Price, E., Wilson, C. and Sumaktoyo, N. (2015), ‘When Self-Perceptions of Expertise Increase Closed-Minded Cognition: The Earned Dogmatism Effect’, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 61, 131?8.
15 Quoted in Hammond, A. L. (1984). A Passion to Know: Twenty Profiles in Science, New York: Scribner, p.5. This viewpoint is also discussed, in depth, in Roberts, R.C., Wood, W.J. (2007), Intellectual Virtues: p 253. An Essay in Regulative Epistemology, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
16 Much of this information on de Groot’s life comes from an obituary in the Observer of the American Psychological Society, published online on 1 November 2006: http://www. psychologicalscience.org/observer/in-memoriam-adriaan-dingeman-de-groot-1914-2006#.WUpLDIrTUdV.
17 Mellenbergh, G.J. and Hofstee, W.K.B. (2006), ‘Commemoration Adriaan Dingeman de Groot’, in: Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences (ed.), Life and Memorials, Amsterdam: Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences, pp. 27?30.
18 Busato, V. (2006), ‘In Memoriam: Adriaan de Groot (1914?2006)’, Netherlands Journal of Psychology, 62, 2?4.
19 de Groot, A. (ed.) (2008), Thought and Choice in Chess, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, p. 288. See also William Chase and Herbert Simon’s classic follow-up experiment that provides further evidence for the role of chunking in expert performance: Chase, W. G. and Simon, H. A. (1973). Perception in Chess. Cognitive Psychology, 4(1), 55-81.
20 Hodges, N.J., Starkes, J.L. and MacMahon, C. (2006), ‘Expert Performance in Sport: A Cognitive Perspective’, in Ericsson, K.A., Charness, N., Feltovich, P.J., et al. (eds), Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
21 Dobbs, D. (2006), ‘How to Be a Genius’, New Scientist, 191(2569), 40?3.
22 Kalakoski, V. and Saariluoma, P. (2001), ‘Taxi Drivers’ Exceptional Memory of Street Names’, Memory and Cognition, 29(4), 634?8.
23 Nee, C. and Ward, T. (2015), ‘Review of Expertise and Its General Implications for Correctional Psychology and Criminology’, Aggression and Violent Behavior, 20, 1–9.
24 Nee, C. and Meenaghan, A. (2006), ‘Expert Decision Making in Burglars’, British Journal of Criminology, 46(5), 935?49.
25 For a comprehensive review of the evidence, see Dane, E. (2010), ‘Reconsidering the Trade-Off between Expertise and Flexibility: A Cognitive Entrenchment Perspective’, Academy of Management Review, 35(4), 579?603.
26 Woollett, K. and Maguire, E.A. (2010), ‘The Effect of Navigational Expertise on Wayfinding in New Environments’, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 30(4), 565?73.
27 Harley, E.M., Pope, W.B., Villablanca, J.P., Mumford, J., Suh, R., Mazziotta, J.C., Enzmann, D. and Engel, S.A. (2009), ‘Engagement of Fusiform Cortex and Disengagement of Lateral Occipital Cortex in The Acquisition of Radiological Expertise’, Cerebral Cortex, 19(11), 2746?54.
28 See, for instance: Corbin, J.C., Reyna, V.F., Weldon, R.B. and Brainerd, C.J. (2015), ‘How Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making Are Colored By Gist-Based Intuition: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach’, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 4(4), 344?55. The following chapter also gives a more complete description of many of the findings in the preceding paragraphs: Dror, I.E. (2011), ‘The Paradox of Human Expertise: Why Experts Get It Wrong’, in The Paradoxical Brain, ed. Narinder Kapur, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
29 Northcraft, G.B. and Neale, M.A. (1987), ‘Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate: An Anchoring-and-Adjustment Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions’, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39(1), 84?97.
30 Busey, T.A. and Parada, F.J. (2010), ‘The Nature of Expertise in Fingerprint Examiners’, Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 17(2), 155?60.
31 Busey, T.A. and Vanderkolk, J.R. (2005), ‘Behavioral and Electrophysiological Evidence for Configural Processing in Fingerprint Experts’, Vision Research, 45(4), 431?48.
32 Dror, I.E. and Charlton, D. (2006), ‘Why Experts Make Errors’, Journal of Forensic Identification, 56(4), 600?16.
33 Dror, I.E., Péron, A.E., Hind, S.-L. and Charlton, D. (2005), ‘When Emotions Get the Better of Us: The Effect of Contextual Top-Down Processing on Matching Fingerprints’, Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19(6), 799–809.
34 Office of the Inspector General, ‘A Review of the FBI’s Handling of the Brandon Mayfield Case’, p. 192.
35 Office of the Inspector General, ‘A Review of the FBI’s Handling of the Brandon Mayfield Case’, p. 164.
36 Dror, I.E., Morgan, R., Rando, C. and Nakhaeizadeh, S. (2017), ‘The Bias Snowball and the Bias Cascade Effects: Two Distinct Biases That May Impact Forensic Decision Making’, Journal of Forensic Science, 62(3), 832?3.
37 Office of the Inspector General, ‘A Review of the FBI’s Handling of the Brandon Mayfield Case’, p. 179.
38 Kershaw, S. (5 June 2004), ‘Spain at Odds on Mistaken Terror Arrest’, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/learning/students/pop/articles/05LAWY.html.
39 Office of the Inspector General, ‘A Review of the FBI’s Handling of the Brandon Mayfield Case’, p. 52.
40 Dismukes, K., Berman, B.A. and Loukopoulos, L.D. (2007), The Limits of Expertise: Rethinking Pilot Error and the Causes of Airline Accidents, Aldershot: Ashgate, pp. 76?81.
41 National Transport Safety Board [NTSB] (2008), ‘Attempted Takeoff From Wrong Runway Comair Flight 5191, 27 August 2006’, Accident Report NTSB/AAR-07/05. This report specifically cites confirmation bias – the kind explored by Stephen Walmsley and Andrew Gilbey as one of the primary sources of the error – and Walmsley and Gilbey cite it as an inspiration for their paper.
42 Walmsley, S. and Gilbey, A. (2016), ‘Cognitive Biases in Visual Pilots’ Weather-Related Decision Making’, Applied Cognitive Psychology, 30(4), 532–43.
43 Levinthal, D. and Rerup, C. (2006), ‘Crossing an Apparent Chasm: Bridging Mindful and Less-Mindful Perspectives on Organizational Learning’, Organization Science, 17(4), 502–13.
44 Kirkpatrick, G. (2009), ‘The Corporate Governance Lessons from the Financial Crisis’, OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, 2009(1), 61?87.
45 Minton, B. A., Taillard, J. P. and Williamson, R. (2014). Financial Expertise Of the Board, Risk Taking, and Performance: Evidence from Bank Holding Companies. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 49(2), 351-380. Juan Almandoz at the IESE Business School in Barcelona and András Tilcsik at the University of Toronto have found the same patterns in the board members and CEOs of local banks in the United States. Like Williamson, they found that the more experts the banks had on their board, the more likely they were to fail during times of uncertainty, due to entrenchment, over-confidence and the suppression of alternative ideas. Almandoz, J. and Tilcsik, A. (2016), ‘When Experts Become Liabilities: Domain Experts on Boards and Organizational Failure’, Academy of Management Journal, 59(4), 1124–49. Monika Czerwonka at the Warsaw School of Economics, meanwhile, has found that expert stock market investors are more susceptible to the sunk cost bias – the tendency to pour more money into a failing investment, even if we know it is making a loss. Again, the greater their expertise, the greater their vulnerability. Rzeszutek, M., Szyszka, A. and Czerwonka, M. (2015), ‘Investors’ Expertise, Personality Traits and Susceptibility to Behavioral Biases in the Decision Making Process’, Contemporary Economics, 9, 337–52.
46 Jennifer Mnookin of UCLA, in Fingerprints on Trial, BBC World Service, 29 March 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00fvhl3.
47 Dror, I.E., Thompson, W.C., Meissner, C.A., Kornfield, I., Krane, D., Saks, M. and Risinger, M. (2015), ‘Letter to the Editor ? Context Management Toolbox: A Linear Sequential Unmasking (LSU) Approach for Minimizing Cognitive Bias in Forensic Decision Making’, Journal of Forensic Sciences, 60(4), 1111?12.
Chapter 4
1 Brown, B. (2012), ‘Hot, Hot, Hot: The Summer of 1787’, National Constitution Center blog, https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/hot-hot-hot-the-summer-of-1787.
2 For much of the background detail on the US Constitution I am indebted to Isaacson, W. (2003), Benjamin Franklin: An American Life, New York: Simon & Schuster.
3 Franklin, B. (19 April 1787), Letter to Thomas Jefferson, Philadelphia. Retrieved from Franklin’s online archives, courtesy of the American Philosophical Society and Yale University, http://franklinpapers.org/franklin/framedVolumes.jsp?vol=44&page=613.
4 Madison Debates (30 June 1787). Retrieved from the Avalon project at Yale Law School, http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/debates_630.asp.
5 Madison Debates (17 September 1787). Retrieved from the Avalon project at Yale Law School, http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/debates_917.asp.
6 Isaacson, W. (2003), Benjamin Franklin: An American Life, New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 149.
7 Lynch, T.J., Boyer, P.S., Nichols, C. and Milne, D. (2013), The Oxford Encyclopedia of American Military and Diplomatic History, New York: Oxford University Press, p. 398.
8 Proceedings from Benjamin Franklin’s debating club define wisdom as ‘The Knowledge of what will be best for us on all Occasions and of the best Ways of attaining it.’ They also declared that no man is ‘wise at all Times or in all Things’ though ‘some are much more frequently wise than others’ (Proposals and Queries to be Asked the Junto, 1732).
9 ‘Conversations on Wisdom: UnCut Interview with Valerie Tiberius’, from the Chicago Center for Practical Wisdom, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFuT0yY2otw. See also Tiberius, V. (2016), ‘Wisdom and Humility’, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1384, 113–16.
10 Birren, J.E. and Svensson, C.M. (2005), in Sternberg, R. and Jordan, J. (eds), A Handbook of Wisdom: Psychological Perspectives, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 12?13. As Birren and Svensson point out, early psychologists preferred to look at ‘psychophysics’ – exploring, for instance, the basic elements of perception ? and they would have considered wisdom too complex to pin down in a laboratory. And the topic tended to be shunned until well into the twentieth century, with a notable absence in many of the major textbooks, including An Intellectual History of Psychology (Daniel Robinson, 1976) and the Handbook of General Psychology (Benjamin Wolman, 1973).
11 Sternberg, R.J., Bonney, C.R., Gabora, L. and Merrifield, M. (2012), ‘WICS: A Model for College and University Admissions’, Educational Psychologist, 47(1), 30?41.
12 Grossmann, I. (2017), ‘Wisdom in Context’, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(2), 233?57.
13 Grossmann, I., Na, J., Varnum, M.E.W., Kitayama, S. and Nisbett, R.E. (2013), ‘A Route to Well-Being: Intelligence vs. Wise Reasoning’, Journal of Experimental Psychology. General, 142(3), 944–53.
14 Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker A.M. and Fischhoff B. (2007), ‘Individual Differences in Adult Decision Making Competence’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92(5), 938?56.
15 Stanovich, K.E.E., West, R.F. and Toplak, M. (2016), The Rationality Quotient, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Along similar lines, various studies have shown that open-minded reasoning – an important component of Grossmann’s definition of wisdom ? leads to greater wellbeing and happiness. It also seems to make people more inquisitive about potential health risks: Lambie, J. (2014), How to Be Critically Open-Minded: A Psychological and Historical Analysis, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 89?90.
16 See http://wici.ca/new/2016/06/igor-grossmann/.
17 At the time of writing this was a pre-print of the paper, awaiting peer review and publication. Santos, H.C., and Grossmann, I. (2018), ‘Relationship of Wisdom-Related Attitudes and Subjective Well-Being over Twenty Years: Application of the Train-Preregister-Test (TPT) Cross-Validation Approach to Longitudinal Data’. Available at https://psyarxiv.com/f4thj/.
18 Grossmann, I., Gerlach, T.M. and Denissen, J.J.A. (2016), ‘Wise Reasoning in the Face of Everyday Life Challenges’, Social Psychological and Personality Science, 7(7), 611–22.
19 Franklin, B. (1909), The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin, p. 17. Public domain ebook of the 1909 Collier & Son edition.
20 Letter from Benjamin Franklin to John Lining (18 March 1775). Retrieved from the website of the US National Archives, https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Franklin/01-05-02-0149.
21 Lord, C.G., Ross, L. and Lepper, M.R. (1979), ‘Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37(11), 2098?2109. Thanks to Tom Stafford for pointing me towards this paper and its interpretation, in his article for BBC Future: Stafford, T. (2017), ‘How to Get People to Overcome Their Bias’, http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170131-why-wont-some-people-listen-to-reason.
22 Isaacson, W. (2003), ‘A Benjamin Franklin Reader’, p. 236. New York: Simon & Schuster.
23 Letter from Benjamin Franklin to Jonathan Williams, Jr, (8 April 1779). Retrieved from Franklin’s online archives, courtesy of the American Philosophical Society and Yale University, http://franklinpapers.org/franklin//framedVolumes.jsp?vol=29&page=283a.
24 Jonas, E., Schulz-Hardt, S., Frey, D. and Thelen, N. (2001), ‘Confirmation Bias in Sequential Information Search after Preliminary Decisions: An Expansion of Dissonance Theoretical Research on Selective Exposure to Information’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 80(4), 557–71. You can also find a discussion of this paper, and its implications for decision making, in Church, I. (2016), Intellectual Humility: An Introduction to the Philosophy and Science, Bloomsbury. Kindle Edition (Kindle Locations 5817?20).
25 Baron, J., Gürçay, B. and Metz, S.E. (2016), ‘Reflection, Intuition, and Actively Open-Minded Thinking’, in Weller, J. and Toplak, M.E. (eds), Individual Differences in Judgment and Decision Making from a Developmental Context, London: Psychology Press.
26 Adame, B.J. (2016), ‘Training in the Mitigation of Anchoring Bias: A Test of the Consider-the-Opposite Strategy’, Learning and Motivation, 53, 36?48.
27 Hirt, E.R., Kardes, F.R. and Markman, K.D. (2004), ‘Activating a Mental Simulation Mind-Set Through Generation of Alternatives: Implications for Debiasing in Related and Unrelated Domains’, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 40(3), 374?83.
28 Chandon, P. and Wansink, B. (2007), ‘The Biasing Health Halos of Fast-Food Restaurant Health Claims: Lower Calorie Estimates and Higher Side-Dish Consumption Intentions’, Journal of Consumer Research, 34(3), 301–14.
29 Miller, A.K., Markman, K.D., Wagner, M.M. and Hunt, A.N. (2013), ‘Mental Simulation and Sexual Prejudice Reduction: The Debiasing Role of Counterfactual Thinking’, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 43(1), 190–4.
30 For a thorough examination of the ‘consider the opposite strategy’ and its psychological benefits, see Lambie, J. (2014), How to Be Critically Open-Minded: A Psychological and Historical Analysis, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 82?6.
31 Herzog, S.M. and Hertwig, R. (2009), ‘The Wisdom of Many in One Mind: Improving Individual Judgments with Dialectical Bootstrapping’, Psychological Science, 20(2), 231?7.
32 See the following paper for a recent examination of this technique: Fisher, M. and Keil, F.C. (2014), ‘The Illusion of Argument Justification’, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143(1), 425?33.
33 See the following paper for a review of this research: Samuelson, P.L. and Church, I.M. (2015), ‘When Cognition Turns Vicious: Heuristics and Biases in Light of Virtue Epistemology’, Philosophical Psychology, 28(8), 1095?1113. The following paper provides an explanation of the reasons accountability may fail, if we do not feel comfortable enough to share the sources of our reasoning honestly: Mercier, H., Boudry, M., Paglieri, F. and Trouche, E. (2017), ‘Natural-born Arguers: Teaching How to Make the Best of Our Reasoning Abilities’, Educational Psychologist, 52(1), 1?16.
34 Middlekauf, R. (1996), Benjamin Franklin and His Enemies, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, p. 57.
35 Suedfeld, P., Tetlock, P.E. and Ramirez, C. (1977), ‘War, Peace, and Integrative Complexity: UN Speeches on the Middle East Problem, 1947–1976’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 21(3), 427?42.
36 The psychologist John Lambie offers a more detailed analysis of these political and military studies in Lambie, How to be Critically Open-minded, pp. 193?7.
37 See. for example, the following article by Patricia Hogwood, a reader in European Politics at the University of Westminster: Hogwood, P. (21 September 2017), ‘The Angela Merkel Model – or How to Succeed in German Politics’, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/the-angela-merkel-model-or-how-to-succeed-in-german-politics-84442
38 Packer, G. (1 December 2014), ‘The Quiet German: The Astonishing Rise of Angela Merkel, the Most Powerful Woman in the World’, New Yorker: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/12/01/quiet-german.
39 Parker, K.I. (1992), ‘Solomon as Philosopher King? The Nexus of Law and Wisdom in 1 Kings 1?11’, Journal for the Study of the Old Testament, 17(53), 75?91. Additional details drawn from Hirsch, E.G., et al. (1906), ‘Solomon’, Jewish Encyclopedia. Retrieved online at: http://www.jewishencyclopedia.com/articles/13842-solomon.
40 Grossmann, I. and Kross, E. (2014), ‘Exploring Solomon’s Paradox: Self-Distancing Eliminates the Self?Other Asymmetry in Wise Reasoning about Close Relationships in Younger and Older Adults’, Psychological Science, 25(8), 1571?80.
41 Kross, E., Ayduk, O. and Mischel, W. (2005), ‘When Asking “Why” Does Not Hurt: Distinguishing Rumination from Reflective Processing of Negative Emotions’, Psychological Science, 16(9), 709–15.
42 For a wide-ranging review of this research, see Kross, E. and Ayduk, O. (2017), ‘Self-distancing’, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 55, 81?136.
43 Streamer, L., Seery, M.D., Kondrak, C.L., Lamarche V.M. and Saltsman, T.L. (2017), ‘Not I, But She: The Beneficial Effects of Self-Distancing on Challenge/Threat Cardiovascular Responses’, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 70, 235?41.
44 Grossmann and Kross, ‘Exploring Solomon’s Paradox’.
45 Finkel, E.J., Slotter, E.B., Luchies, L.B., Walton, G.M. and Gross, J.J. (2013), ‘A Brief Intervention to Promote Conflict Reappraisal Preserves Marital Quality Over Time’, Psychological Science, 24(8), 1595–1601.
46 Kross, E. and Grossmann, I. (2012), ‘Boosting Wisdom: Distance from the Self Enhances Wise Reasoning, Attitudes, and Behavior’, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 141(1), 43?8.
47 Grossmann, I. (2017), ‘Wisdom and How to Cultivate It: Review of Emerging Evidence for a Constructivist Model of Wise Thinking’, European Psychologist, 22(4), 233–246.
48 Reyna, V.F., Chick, C.F., Corbin, J.C. and Hsia, A.N. (2013), ‘Developmental Reversals in Risky Decision Making: Intelligence Agents Show Larger Decision Biases than College Students’, Psychological Science, 25(1), 76?84.
49 See, for example, Maddux, W.W., Bivolaru, E., Hafenbrack, A.C., Tadmor, C.T. and Galinsky, A.D. (2014), ‘Expanding Opportunities by Opening Your Mind: Multicultural Engagement Predicts Job Market Success through Longitudinal Increases in Integrative Complexity’, Social Psychological and Personality Science, 5(5), 608?15.
50 Tetlock, P. and Gardner, D. (2015), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, p. 126. London: Random House.
51 Grossmann, I., Karasawa, M., Izumi, S., Na, J., Varnum, M.E.W., Kitayama, S. and Nisbett, R. (2012), ‘Aging and Wisdom: Culture Matters’, Psychological Science, 23(10), 1059?66.
52 Manuelo, E., Kusumi, T., Koyasu, M., Michita, Y. and Tanaka, Y. (2015), in Davies, M. and Barnett, R. (eds), The Palgrave Handbook of Critical Thinking in Higher Education, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 299?315.
53 For a review of this evidence, see Nisbett, R.E., Peng, K., Choi, I. and Norenzayan, A. (2001), ‘Culture and Systems of Thought: Holistic Versus Analytic Cognition’, Psychological Review, 108(2), 291?310. Markus, H.R. and Kitayama, S. (1991), ‘Culture and the Self: Implications for Cognition, Emotion, and Motivation’, Psychological Review, 98(2), 224?53. Henrich, J., Heine, S.J. and Norenzayan, A. (2010), ‘Beyond WEIRD: Towards a Broad-based Behavioral Science’, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 33(2?3), 111?35.
54 For more information on the sense of selfhood in Japan (and, in particular, the way it is encoded in language and education), see Cave, P. (2007), Primary School in Japan: Self, Individuality, and Learning in Elementary Education, Abingdon, England: Routledge, pp. 31?43, Smith, R. (1983), Japanese Society: Tradition, Self, and the Social Order, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 68?105.
55 See, for example, Talhelm, T., Zhang, X., Oishi, S., Shimin, C., Duan, D., Lan, X. and Kitayama, S. (2014), ‘Large-scale Psychological Differences Within China Explained By Rice Versus Wheat Agriculture’, Science, 344(6184), 603?8.
56 Henrich, Heine and Norenzayan, ‘Beyond WEIRD’.
57 See, for instance, Grossmann, I. and Kross, E. (2010), ‘The Impact of Culture on Adaptive Versus Maladaptive Self-reflection’, Psychological Science, 21(8), 1150?7. Wu, S. and Keysar, B. (2007), ‘The Effect of Culture on Perspective Taking’, Psychological Science, 18(7), 600?6. Spencer-Rodgers, J., Williams, M.J. and Peng, K. (2010), ‘Cultural Differences in Expectations of Change and Tolerance for Contradiction: A Decade of Empirical Research’, Personality and Social Psychology Review, 14(3), 296?312.
58 Reason, J.T., Manstead, A.S.R. and Stradling, S.G. (1990), ‘Errors and Violation on the Roads: A Real Distinction?’ Ergonomics, 33(10?11), 1315–32.
59 Heine, S.J. and Hamamura, T. (2007), ‘In Search of East Asian Self-enhancement’, Personality and Social Psychology Review, 11(1), 4?27.
60 Santos, H.C., Varnum, M.E. and Grossmann, I. (2017), ‘Global Increases in Individualism’, Psychological Science, 28(9), 1228?39. See also https://www.psychologicalscience.org/news/releases/individualistic-practices-and-values-increasing-around-the-world.html.
61 Franklin, B. (4 November 1789), Letter to John Wright. Unpublished, retrieved from http://franklinpapers.org/franklin/framedVolumes.jsp.
62 Franklin, B. (9 March 1790), To Ezra Stiles, with a statement of his religious creed. Retrieved from http://www.bartleby.com/400/prose/366.html.
Chapter 5
1 Kroc, R., with Anderson, R. (1977/87), Grinding It Out: The Making of McDonald’s, New York: St Martin’s Paperbacks, pp. 5–12, 39–59.
2 Quoted in Hastie, R. and Dawes, R.M. (2010), Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, p. 66.
3 Damasio, A. (1994), Descartes’ Error, New York: Avon Books, pp. 37–44.
4 This was also true when the participants viewed emotionally charged photographs. Unlike most participants, the people with damage to the frontal lobes showed no change to their skin conductance: Damasio, Descartes’ Error, pp. 205–23.
5 Kandasamy, N., Garfinkel, S.N., Page, L., Hardy, B., Critchley, H.D., Gurnell, M. and Coates, J.M. (2016), ‘Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor’, Scientific Reports, 6, 32986.
6 Werner, N.S., Jung, K., Duschek, S. and Schandry, R. (2009), ‘Enhanced Cardiac Perception Is Associated with Benefits in Decision-making’, Psychophysiology, 46(6), 1123–9.
7 Kandasamy, et al., ‘Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor’.
8 Ernst, J., Northoff, G., Böker, H., Seifritz, E. and Grimm, S. (2013), ‘Interoceptive Awareness Enhances Neural Activity during Empathy’, Human Brain Mapping, 34(7), 1615–24. Terasawa, Y., Moriguchi, Y., Tochizawa, S. and Umeda, S. (2014), ‘Interoceptive Sensitivity Predicts Sensitivity to the Emotions of Others’, Cognition and Emotion, 28(8), 1435–48.
9 Chua, E.F. and Bliss-Moreau, E. (2016), ‘Knowing Your Heart and Your Mind: The Relationships between Metamemory and Interoception’, Consciousness and Cognition, 45, 146–58.
10 Umeda, S., Tochizawa, S., Shibata, M. and Terasawa, Y. (2016), ‘Prospective Memory Mediated by Interoceptive Accuracy: A Psychophysiological Approach’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 371(1708), 20160005.
11 Kroc, with Anderson, Grinding It Out, p. 72. See also Schupack v. McDonald’s System, Inc., in which Kroc is quoted about his funny bone feeling: https://law.justia.com/cases/nebraska/supreme-court/1978/41114-1.html.
12 Hayashi, A.M. (2001), ‘When to Trust Your Gut’, Harvard Business Review, 79(2), 59–65. See also Eugene Sadler-Smith’s fascinating discussions of creativity and intuition in Sadler-Smith, E. (2010). The Intuitive Mind: Profiting From the Power of Your Sixth Sense. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
13 Feldman Barrett relates this story in her fascinating and engaging book, How Emotions Are Made: Feldman Barrett, L. (2017), How Emotions Are Made, London: Pan Macmillan, pp. 30–1. I’ve also written about this work for BBC Future: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20171012-how-emotions-can-trick-your-mind-and-body.
14 Redelmeier, D.A. and Baxter, S.D. (2009), ‘Rainy Weather and Medical School Admission Interviews’, Canadian Medical Association Journal, 181(12), 933.
15 Schnall, S., Haidt, J., Clore, G.L. and Jordan, A.H. (2008), ‘Disgust as Embodied Moral Judgment’, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 34(8), 1096–109.
16 Lerner, J.S., Li, Y., Valdesolo, P. and Kassam, K.S. (2015), ‘Emotion and Decision Making’, Annual Review of Psychology, 66.
17 This quote was taken from Lisa Feldman Barrett’s TED talk in Cambridge, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYAEh3T5a80.
18 Seo, M.G. and Barrett, L.F. (2007), ‘Being Emotional During Decision Making—Good or Bad? An Empirical Investigation’, Academy of Management Journal, 50(4), 923–40.
19 Cameron, C.D., Payne, B.K. and Doris, J.M. (2013), ‘Morality in High Definition: Emotion Differentiation Calibrates the Influence of Incidental Disgust on Moral Judgments’, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 49(4), 719–25. See also Fenton-O’Creevy, M., Soane, E., Nicholson, N. and Willman, P. (2011), ‘Thinking, Feeling and Deciding: The Influence of Emotions on the Decision Making and Performance of Traders’, Journal of Organizational Behavior, 32(8), 1044–61.
20 See, for instance, Füstös, J., Gramann, K., Herbert, B.M. and Pollatos, O. (2012), ‘On the Embodiment of Emotion Regulation: Interoceptive Awareness Facilitates Reappraisal’, Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 8(8), 911–17. And Kashdan, T.B., Barrett, L.F. and McKnight, P.E. (2015), ‘Unpacking Emotion Differentiation: Transforming Unpleasant Experience by Perceiving Distinctions in Negativity’, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(1), 10–16.
21 See also Alkozei, A., Smith, R., Demers, L.A., Weber, M., Berryhill, S.M. and Killgore, W.D. (2018), ‘Increases in Emotional Intelligence after an Online Training Program Are Associated with Better Decision-Making on the Iowa Gambling Task’, Psychological Reports, 0033294118771705.
22 Bruine de Bruin, W., Strough, J. and Parker, A.M. (2014), ‘Getting Older Isn’t All That Bad: Better Decisions and Coping When Facing “Sunk Costs” ’, Psychology and Aging, 29(3), 642.
23 Miu, A.C. and Crişan, L.G. (2011), ‘Cognitive Reappraisal Reduces the Susceptibility to the Framing Effect in Economic Decision Making’, Personality and Individual Differences, 51(4), 478–82.
24 Halperin, E., Porat, R., Tamir, M. and Gross, J.J. (2013), ‘Can Emotion Regulation Change Political Attitudes in Intractable Conflicts? From the Laboratory to the Field’, Psychological Science, 24(1), 106–11.
25 Grossmann, I. and Oakes, H. (2017), ‘Wisdom of Yoda and Mr. Spock: The Role of Emotions and the Self’. Available as a pre-print on the PsyArxiv service: https://psyarxiv.com/jy5em/.
26 See, for instance, Hill, C.L. and Updegraff, J.A. (2012), ‘Mindfulness and Its Relationship to Emotional Regulation’, Emotion, 12(1), 81. Daubenmier, J., Sze, J., Kerr, C.E., Kemeny, M.E. and Mehling, W. (2013), ‘Follow Your Breath: Respiratory Interoceptive Accuracy in Experienced Meditators’, Psychophysiology, 50(8), 777–89. Fischer, D., Messner, M. and Pollatos, O. (2017), ‘Improvement of Interoceptive Processes after an 8-Week Body Scan Intervention’, Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 11, 452. Farb, N.A., Segal, Z.V. and Anderson, A.K. (2012), ‘Mindfulness Meditation Training Alters Cortical Representations of Interoceptive Attention’, Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 8(1), 15–26.
27 Hafenbrack, A.C., Kinias, Z. and Barsade, S.G. (2014), ‘Debiasing the Mind through Meditation: Mindfulness and the Sunk-Cost Bias’, Psychological Science, 25(2), 369–76.
28 For an in-depth discussion of the benefits of mindfulness to decision making, see Karelaia, N. and Reb, J. (2014), ‘Improving Decision Making through Mindfulness’, forthcoming in Reb, J. and Atkins, P. (eds), Mindfulness in Organizations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Hafenbrack, A.C. (2017), ‘Mindfulness Meditation as an On-the-Spot Workplace Intervention’, Journal of Business Research, 75, 118?29.
29 Lakey, C.E., Kernis, M.H., Heppner, W.L. and Lance, C.E. (2008), ‘Individual Differences in Authenticity and Mindfulness as Predictors of Verbal Defensiveness’, Journal of Research in Personality, 42(1), 230?8.
30 Reitz, M., Chaskalson, M., Olivier, S. and Waller, L. (2016), The Mindful Leader, Hult Research. Retrieved from: https://mbsr.co.uk/userfiles/Publications/Mindful-Leader-Report-2016-updated.pdf.
31 Kirk, U., Downar, J. and Montague, P.R. (2011), ‘Interoception Drives Increased Rational Decision-Making in Meditators Playing the Ultimatum Game’, Frontiers in Neuroscience, 5, 49.
32 Yurtsever, G. (2008), ‘Negotiators’ Profit Predicted By Cognitive Reappraisal, Suppression of Emotions, Misrepresentation of Information, and Tolerance of Ambiguity’, Perceptual and Motor Skills, 106(2), 590–608.
33 Schirmer-Mokwa, K.L., Fard, P.R., Zamorano, A.M., Finkel, S., Birbaumer, N. and Kleber, B.A. (2015), ‘Evidence for Enhanced Interoceptive Accuracy in Professional Musicians’, Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience, 9, 349. Christensen, J.F., Gaigg, S.B. and Calvo-Merino, B. (2018), ‘I Can Feel My Heartbeat: Dancers Have Increased Interoceptive Accuracy’, Psychophysiology, 55(4), e13008.
34 Cameron, C.D., Payne, B.K. and Doris, J.M. (2013), ‘Morality in High Definition: Emotion Differentiation Calibrates the Influence of Incidental Disgust on Moral Judgments’, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 49(4), 719–25.
35 Kircanski, K., Lieberman, M.D. and Craske, M.G. (2012), ‘Feelings into Words: Contributions of Language to Exposure Therapy’, Psychological Science, 23(10), 1086–91.
36 According to Merriam-Webster’s dictionary, the first written use of the word appeared in 1992 in The London Magazine, but it only recently entered more common usage: https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/hangry-meaning.
37 Zadie Smith offers us another lesson in emotion differentiation in the following essay on joy – a ‘strange admixture of terror, pain, and delight’ – and the reasons that it should not be confused with pleasure. Besides being an astonishing read, the essay is a perfect illustration of the ways that we can carefully analyse our feelings and their effects on us. Smith, Z. (2013), ‘Joy’, New York Review of Books, 60(1), 4.
38 Di Stefano, G., Gino, F., Pisano, G.P. and Staats, B.R. (2016), ‘Making Experience Count: The Role of Reflection in Individual Learning’. Retrieved online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2414478.
39 Cited in Pavlenko, A. (2014), The Bilingual Mind, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 282.
40 Keysar, B., Hayakawa, S.L. and An, S.G. (2012), ‘The Foreign-language Effect: Thinking in a Foreign Tongue Reduces Decision Biases’, Psychological Science, 23(6), 661?8.
41 Costa, A., Foucart, A., Arnon, I., Aparici, M. and Apesteguia, J. (2014), ‘ “Piensa” Twice: On the Foreign Language Effect in Decision Making’, Cognition, 130(2), 236–54. See also Gao, S., Zika, O., Rogers, R.D. and Thierry, G. (2015), ‘Second Language Feedback Abolishes the “Hot Hand” Effect during Even-Probability Gambling’, Journal of Neuroscience, 35(15), 5983–9.
42 Caldwell-Harris, C.L. (2015), ‘Emotionality Differences between a Native and Foreign Language: Implications for Everyday Life’, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 214–19.
43 You can read more about these benefits in this accessible article by Amy Thompson, a professor of applied linguistics at the University of South Florida. Thompson, A. (12 December 2016), ‘How Learning a New Language Improves Tolerance’, The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/how-learning-a-new-language-improves-tolerance-68472.
44 Newman-Toker, D.E. and Pronovost, P.J. (2009), ‘Diagnostic Errors—The Next Frontier for Patient Safety’, Journal of the American Medical Association, 301(10), 1060?2.
45 Andrade, J. (2010), ‘What Does Doodling Do?’ Applied Cognitive Psychology, 24(1), 100?6.
46 For Silvia Mamede’s review and interpretation of these (and similar) results, see Mamede, S. and Schmidt, H.G. (2017), ‘Reflection in Medical Diagnosis: A Literature Review’, Health Professions Education, 3(1), 15?25.
47 Schmidt, H.G., Van Gog, T., Schuit, S.C., Van den Berge, K., Van Daele, P.L., Bueving, H., Van der Zee, T., Van der Broek, W.W., Van Saase, J.L. and Mamede, S. (2017), ‘Do Patients’ Disruptive Behaviours Influence the Accuracy of a Doctor’s Diagnosis? A Randomised Experiment’, BMJ Quality & Safety, 26(1), 19–23.
48 Schmidt, H.G., Mamede, S., Van den Berge, K., Van Gog, T., Van Saase, J.L. and Rikers R.M. (2014), ‘Exposure to Media Information about a Disease Can Cause Doctors to Misdiagnose Similar-Looking Clinical Cases’, Academic Medicine, 89(2), 285?91.
49 For a further discussion of this new understanding of expertise, and the need for doctors to slow their thinking, see Moulton, C.A., Regehr G., Mylopoulos M. and MacRae, H.M. (2007), ‘Slowing Down When You Should: A New Model of Expert Judgment’, Academic Medicine, 82(10Suppl.), S109–16.
50 Casey, P., Burke, K. and Leben, S. (2013), Minding the Court: Enhancing the Decision-Making Process, American Judges Association. Retrieved online from http://aja.ncsc.dni.us/pdfs/Minding-the-Court.pdf.
51 The first four stages of this model are usually attributed to Noel Burch of Gordan Training International.
52 The idea of ‘reflective competence’ was originally proposed by David Baume, an education researcher at the Open University in the UK, who had described how experts need to be able to analyse and articulate their methods if they are to pass them on to others. But the doctor Pat Croskerry also uses the term to describe the fifth stage of expertise, in which experts can finally recognise the sources of their own bias.
Chapter 6
1 ‘Bananas and Flesh-eating Disease’, Snopes.com. Retrieved 19 October 2017, http://www.snopes.com/medical/disease/bananas.asp.
2 Forster, K. (7 January 2017), ‘Revealed: How Dangerous Fake News Conquered Facebook’, Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/fake-news-health-facebook-cruel-damaging-social-media-mike-adams-natural-health-ranger-conspiracy-a7498201.html.
3 Binding, L. (24 July 2018), ‘India Asks Whatsapp to Curb Fake News Following Spate of Lynchings’, Sky News online: https://news.sky.com/story/india-asks-whatsapp-to-curb-fake-news-following-spate-of-lynchings-11425849.
4 Dewey, J. (1910), How We Think, p 101. Mineola, NY: Dover Publications.
5 Galliford, N. and Furnham, A. (2017), ‘Individual Difference Factors and Beliefs in Medical and Political Conspiracy Theories’, Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 58(5), 422?8.
6 See, for instance, Kitai, E., Vinker, S., Sandiuk, A., Hornik, O., Zeltcer, C. and Gaver, A. (1998), ‘Use of Complementary and Alternative Medicine among Primary Care Patients’, Family Practice, 15(5), 411–14. Molassiotis, A., et al. (2005), ‘Use of Complementary and Alternative Medicine in Cancer Patients: A European Survey’, Annals of Oncology, 16(4), 655?63.
7 ‘Yes, We Have No Infected Bananas’, CBC News, 6 March 2000: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/yes-we-have-no-infected-bananas-1.230298.
8 Rabin, N. (2006), ‘Interview with Stephen Colbert. The Onion, https://tv.avclub.com/stephen-colbert-1798208958.
9 Song, H. and Schwarz, N. (2008), ‘Fluency and the Detection of Misleading Questions: Low Processing Fluency Attenuates the Moses Illusion’, Social Cognition, 26(6), 791?9.
10 This research is summarised in the following review articles: Schwarz, N. and Newman, E.J. (2017), ‘How Does the Gut Know Truth? The Psychology of “Truthiness” ’, APA Science Brief: http://www.apa.org/science/about/psa/2017/08/gut-truth.aspx. Schwarz, N., Newman, E. and Leach, W. (2016), ‘Making the Truth Stick & the Myths Fade: Lessons from Cognitive Psychology’, Behavioral Science & Policy, 2(1), 85–95. See also Silva, R.R., Chrobot, N., Newman, E., Schwarz, N. and Topolinski, S. (2017), ‘Make It Short and Easy: Username Complexity Determines Trustworthiness Above and Beyond Objective Reputation’, Frontiers in Psychology, 8, 2200.
11 Wu, W., Moreno, A. M., Tangen, J. M., & Reinhard, J. (2013), ‘Honeybees can discriminate between Monet and Picasso paintings’, Journal of Comparative Physiology A, 199(1), 45–55. Carlström, M., & Larsson, S. C. (2018). ‘Coffee consumption and reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analysis’, Nutrition Reviews, 76(6), 395–417. Olszewski, M., & Ortolano, R. (2011). ‘Knuckle cracking and hand osteoarthritis’, The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine, 24(2), 169–174.
12 Newman, E.J., Garry, M. and Bernstein, D.M., et al. (2012), ‘Nonprobative Words (or Photographs) Inflate Truthiness’, Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 19(5), 969?74.
13 Weaver, K., Garcia, S.M., Schwarz, N. and Miller, D.T. (2007), ‘Inferring the Popularity of an Opinion from Its Familiarity: A Repetitive Voice Can Sound Like a Chorus’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92(5), 821–33.
14 Weisbuch, M. and Mackie, D. (2009), ‘False Fame, Perceptual Clarity, or Persuasion? Flexible Fluency Attribution in Spokesperson Familiarity Effects’, Journal of Consumer Psychology, 19(1), 62–72.
15 Fernandez-Duque, D., Evans, J., Christian, C. and Hodges, S.D. (2015), ‘Superfluous Neuroscience Information Makes Explanations of Psychological Phenomena More Appealing’, Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 27(5), 926–44.
16 Proctor, R. (2011), Golden Holocaust: Origins of the Cigarette Catastrophe and the Case for Abolition. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, p. 292.
17 See the following paper for a thorough discussion of this effect: Schwarz, N. Sanna, L.J., Skurnik, I. and Yoon, C. (2007), ‘Metacognitive Experiences and the Intricacies of Setting People Straight: Implications for Debiasing and Public Information Campaigns’, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 39, 127?61. See also Pluviano, S., Watt, C. and Della Sala, S. (2017), ‘Misinformation Lingers in Memory: Failure of Three Pro-Vaccination Strategies’, PLOS One, 12(7), e0181640.
18 Glum, J. (11 November 2017), ‘Some Republicans Still Think Obama Was Born in Kenya as Trump Resurrects Birther Conspiracy Theory’, Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/trump-birther-obama-poll-republicans-kenya-744195.
19 Lewandowsky, S., Ecker, U. K., Seifert, C. M., Schwarz, N. and Cook, J. (2012). ‘Misinformation and its Correction: Continued Influence and Successful Debiasing’. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 13(3), 106–131.
20 Cook, J. and Lewandowsky, S. (2011), The Debunking Handbook. Available at https://skepticalscience.com/docs/Debunking_Handbook.pdf.
21 NHS Choices, ‘10 Myths about the Flu and Flu Vaccine’, https://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/winterhealth/Pages/Flu-myths.aspx.
22 Smith, I.M. and MacDonald, N.E. (2017), ‘Countering Evidence Denial and the Promotion of Pseudoscience in Autism Spectrum Disorder’, Autism Research, 10(8), 1334?7.
23 Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J.A., Koehler, D.J., et al. (2016), ‘Is the Cognitive Reflection Test a Measure of Both Reflection and Intuition?’ Behavior Research Methods, 48(1), 341?8.
24 Pennycook, G. (2014), ‘Evidence That Analytic Cognitive Style Influences Religious Belief: Comment on Razmyar and Reeve (2013)’, Intelligence, 43, 21?6.
25 Much of this work on the Cognitive Reflection Test has been summarised in the following review paper: Pennycook, G., Fugelsang, J.A. and Koehler, D.J. (2015), ‘Everyday Consequences of Analytic Thinking’, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(6), 425?32.
26 Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J.A., Barr, N., Koehler, D.J. and Fugelsang, J.A. (2015), ‘On the Reception and Detection of Pseudo-Profound Bullshit’, Judgment and Decision Making, 10(6), 549?63.
27 Pennycook, G. and Rand, D.G. (2018), ‘Lazy, Not Biased: Susceptibility to Partisan Fake News Is Better Explained by Lack of Reasoning than By Motivated Reasoning’, Cognition, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018.06.011. See also Pennycook, G. and Rand, D.G. (2017), ‘Who Falls for Fake News? The Roles of Bullshit Receptivity, Overclaiming, Familiarity, and Analytic Thinking’, unpublished paper, https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3023545.
28 Swami, V., Voracek, M., Stieger, S., Tran, U.S. and Furnham, A. (2014), ‘Analytic Thinking Reduces Belief in Conspiracy Theories’, Cognition, 133(3), 572?85. This method of priming analytic thought can also reduce religious beliefs and paranormal thinking: Gervais, W.M. and Norenzayan, A. (2012), ‘Analytic Thinking Promotes Religious Disbelief’, Science, 336(6080), 493?6.
29 Long before the modern form of the Cognitive Reflection Test was invented, psychologists had noticed that it may be possible to prime people to be more critical of the information they receive. In 1987, participants were given deceptively simple trivia questions, with a tempting misleading answer. The process cured their over-confidence on a subsequent test, helping them to calibrate their confidence to their actual knowledge. Arkes, H.R., Christensen, C., Lai, C. and Blumer, C. (1987), ‘Two Methods of Reducing Overconfidence’, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39(1), 133?44.
30 Fitzgerald, C.J. and Lueke, A.K. (2017), ‘Mindfulness Increases Analytical Thought and Decreases Just World Beliefs’, Current Research in Social Psychology, 24(8), 80?5.
31 Robinson himself admitted that the names were unverified. Hebert, H.J. (1 May 1998), ‘Odd Names Added to Greenhouse Plea’, Associated Press: https://apnews.com/aec8beea85d7fe76fc9cc77b8392d79e.
32 Cook, J., Lewandowsky, S. and Ecker, U.K. (2017), ‘Neutralizing Misinformation through Inoculation: Exposing Misleading Argumentation Techniques Reduces Their Influence’, PLOS One, 12(5), e0175799.
33 For further evidence, see Roozenbeek, J. and Van der Linden, S. (2018), ‘The Fake News Game: Actively Inoculating against the Risk of Misinformation’, Journal of Risk Research. DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2018.1443491.
34 McLaughlin, A.C. and McGill, A.E. (2017), ‘Explicitly Teaching Critical Thinking Skills in a History Course’, Science and Education, 26(1?2), 93?105. For a further discussion of the benefits of inoculation in education, see Schmaltz, R. and Lilienfeld, S.O. (2014), ‘Hauntings, Homeopathy, and the Hopkinsville Goblins: Using Pseudoscience to Teach Scientific Thinking’, Frontiers in Psychology, 5, 336.
35 Rowe, M.P., Gillespie, B.M., Harris, K.R., Koether, S.D., Shannon, L.J.Y. and Rose, L.A. (2015), ‘Redesigning a General Education Science Course to Promote Critical Thinking’, CBE-Life Sciences Education, 14(3), ar30.
36 See, for instance, Butler, H.A. (2012), ‘Halpern Critical Thinking Assessment Predicts Real-World Outcomes of Critical Thinking’, Applied Cognitive Psychology, 26(5), 721–9. Butler, H.A., Pentoney, C. and Bong, M.P. (2017), ‘Predicting Real-World Outcomes: Critical Thinking Ability Is a Better Predictor of Life Decisions than Intelligence’, Thinking Skills and Creativity, 25, 38?46.
37 See, for instance, Arum, R. and Roksa, J. (2011), Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
38 ‘Editorial: Louisiana’s Latest Assault on Darwin’, New York Times (21 June 2008), https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/21/opinion/21sat4.html.
39 Kahan, D.M. (2016), ‘The Politically Motivated Reasoning Paradigm, Part 1: What Politically Motivated Reasoning Is and How to Measure It’, in Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences: An Interdisciplinary, Searchable, and Linkable Resource, doi: 10.1002/9781118900772.
40 Hope, C. (8 June 2015), ‘Campaigning Against GM Crops Is ‘‘Morally Unacceptable’’, Says Former Greenpeace Chief’, Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/agriculture/crops/11661016/Campaigning-against-GM-crops-is-morally-unacceptable-says-former-Greenpeace-chief.html.
41 Shermer, M. (2007), Why People Believe Weird Things, London: Souvenir Press, pp. 13?15. (Originally published 1997.)
42 You can read one of these exchanges on the Skeptic website: https://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/05-05-03/.
43 You can find the Skepticism 101 syllabus, including a reading list, at the following website: https://www.skeptic.com/downloads/Skepticism101-How-to-Think-Like-a-Scientist.pdf.
44 For more information, see Shermer, M. (2012), The Believing Brain, London: Robinson, pp. 251–8. If you are looking for a course in inoculation, I’d thoroughly recommend reading Shermer’s work.
Chapter 7
1 Feynman, R. (1985), Surely You’re Joking Mr Feynman: Adventures of a Curious Character, New York: W. W. Norton.
2 The following article, an interview with one of Feynman’s former students, offers this interpretation: Wai, J. (2011), ‘A Polymath Physicist on Richard Feynman’s “Low” IQ and Finding another Einstein’, Psychology Today, https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/finding-the-next-einstein/201112/polymath-physicist-richard-feynmans-low-iq-and-finding-another.
3 Gleick, J. (1992), Genius: Richard Feynman and Modern Physics (Kindle Edition), pp. 30?5.
4 Gleick, J. (17 February 1988), ‘Richard Feynman Dead at 69: Leading Theoretical Physicist’, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/17/obituaries/richard-feynman-dead-at-69-leading-theoretical-physicist.html?pagewanted=all.
5 The Nobel Prize in Physics 1965: https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1965/.
6 Kac, M. (1987), Enigmas of Chance: An Autobiography, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, p. xxv.
7 Gleick, ‘Richard Feynman Dead at 69’.
8 Feynman, R.P. (1999), The Pleasure of Finding Things Out, New York: Perseus Books, p. 3.
9 Feynman, R.P. (2006), Don’t You Have Time to Think, ed. Feynman, M., London: Penguin, p. 414.
10 Darwin, C. (2016), Life and Letters of Charles Darwin (Vol. 1), Krill Press via PublishDrive. Available online at: https://charles-darwin.classic-literature.co.uk/the-life-and-letters-of-charles-darwin-volume-i/ebook-page-42.asp.
11 Darwin, C. (1958), Selected Letters on Evolution and Natural Selection, ed. Darwin, F., New York: Dover Publications, p. 9.
12 Engel, S. (2011), ‘Children’s Need to Know: Curiosity in Schools’, Harvard Educational Review, 81(4), 625–45.
13 Engel, S. (2015), The Hungry Mind, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, p. 3.
14 Von Stumm, S., Hell, B. and Chamorro-Premuzic, T. (2011), ‘The Hungry Mind: Intellectual Curiosity Is the Third Pillar of Academic Performance’, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 6(6), 574?88.
15 Engel, ‘Children’s Need to Know’.
16 Gruber, M.J., Gelman, B.D. and Ranganath, C. (2014), ‘States of Curiosity Modulate Hippocampus-Dependent Learning via the Dopaminergic Circuit’, Neuron, 84(2), 486?96. A previous, slightly less detailed study had come to broadly the same conclusions: Kang, M.J., Hsu, M., Krajbich, I.M., Loewenstein, G., McClure, S.M., Wang, J.T.Y. and Camerer, C.F. (2009), ‘The Wick in the Candle of Learning: Epistemic Curiosity Activates Reward Circuitry and Enhances Memory’, Psychological Science, 20(8), 963?73.
17 Hardy III, J.H., Ness, A.M. and Mecca, J. (2017), ‘Outside the Box: Epistemic Curiosity as a Predictor of Creative Problem Solving and Creative Performance’, Personality and Individual Differences, 104, 230–7.
18 Leonard, N.H. and Harvey, M. (2007), ‘The Trait of Curiosity as a Predictor of Emotional Intelligence’, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 37(8), 1914–29.
19 Sheldon, K.M., Jose, P.E., Kashdan, T.B. and Jarden, A. (2015), ‘Personality, Effective Goal-Striving, and Enhanced Well-Being: Comparing 10 Candidate Personality Strengths’, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 41(4), 575–85.
20 Kashdan, T.B., Gallagher, M.W., Silvia, P.J., Winterstein, B.P., Breen, W.E., Terhar, D. and Steger, M.F. (2009), ‘The Curiosity and Exploration Inventory-II: Development, Factor Structure, and Psychometrics’. Journal of Research in Personality, 43(6), 987–98.
21 Krakovsky, M. (2007), ‘The Effort Effect’, Stanford Alumni magazine, https://alumni.stanford.edu/get/page/magazine/article/?article_id=32124.
22 Trei, L. (2007), ‘New Study Yields Instructive Results on How Mindset Affects Learning’, Stanford News website, https://news.stanford.edu/news/2007/february7/dweck-020707.html.
23 Harvard Business Review staff (2014), ‘How Companies Can Profit From a “Growth Mindset” ’, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-companies-can-profit-from-a-growth-mindset.
24 Along these lines, a recent study found that gifted students are particularly at risk of the fixed mindset: Esparza, J., Shumow, L. and Schmidt, J.A. (2014), ‘Growth Mindset of Gifted Seventh Grade Students in Science’, NCSSSMST Journal, 19(1), 6–13.
25 Dweck, C. (2012), Mindset: Changing the Way You Think to Fulfil Your Potential, London: Robinson, pp. 17?18, 234?9.
26 Mangels, J.A., Butterfield, B., Lamb, J., Good, C. and Dweck, C.S. (2006), ‘Why Do Beliefs about Intelligence Influence Learning Success? A Social Cognitive Neuroscience Model’, Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 1(2), 75?86.
27 Claro, S., Paunesku, D. and Dweck, C.S. (2016), ‘Growth Mindset Tempers the Effects of Poverty on Academic Achievement’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(31), 8664?8.
28 For evidence of the benefits of mindset, see the following meta-analysis, examining 113 studies: Burnette, J.L., O’Boyle, E.H., VanEpps, E.M., Pollack, J.M. and Finkel, E.J. (2013), ‘Mind-sets Matter: A Meta-Analytic Review of Implicit Theories and Self-regulation’, Psychological Bulletin, 139(3), 655?701.
29 Quoted in Roberts, R. and Kreuz, R. (2015), Becoming Fluent: How Cognitive Science Can Help Adults Learn a Foreign Language, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 26–7.
30 See, for example, Rustin, S. (10 May 2016), ‘New Test for “Growth Mindset”, the Theory That Anyone Who Tries Can Succeed’, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/may/10/growth-mindset-research-uk-schools-sats.
31 Brummelman, E., Thomaes, S., Orobio de Castro, B., Overbeek, G. and Bushman, B.J. (2014), ‘ “That’s Not Just Beautiful ? That’s Incredibly Beautiful!” The Adverse Impact of Inflated Praise on Children with Low Self-esteem’, Psychological Science, 25(3), 728?35.
32 Dweck, C. (2012), Mindset, London: Robinson, pp. 180?6, 234?9. See also Haimovitz, K. and Dweck, C.S. (2017), ‘The Origins of Children’s Growth and Fixed Mindsets: New Research and a New Proposal’, Child Development, 88(6), 1849–59.
33 Frank, R. (16 October 2013), ‘Billionare Sara Blakely Says Secret to Success Is Failure’, CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/16/billionaire-sara-blakely-says-secret-to-success-is-failure.html.
34 See, for instance, Paunesku, D., Walton, G.M., Romero, C., Smith, E.N., Yeager, D.S. and Dweck, C.S. (2015), ‘Mind-set Interventions Are a Scalable Treatment for Academic Underachievement’, Psychological Science, 26(6), 784?93. For further evidence of the power of interventions, see the following meta-analysis: Lazowski, R.A. and Hulleman, C.S. (2016), ‘Motivation Interventions in Education: A Meta-Analytic Review’, Review of Educational Research, 86(2), 602?40.
35 See, for instance, the following meta-analysis, which found a small but significant effect: Sisk, V.F., Burgoyne, A.P., Sun, J., Butler, J.L., Macnamara, B.N. (2018), ‘To What Extent and Under Which Circumstances Are Growth Mind-Sets Important to Academic Achievement? Two Meta-Analyses’, Psychological Science, in press, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797617739704. The exact interpretation of these results is still the matter of debate. Generally speaking, it would seem that the growth mindset is most important when students feel vulnerable/threatened – meaning that the interventions are most effective for children of poorer households, for instance. And while one-shot interventions do provide some long-term benefits, it seems clear that a more regular programme would be needed to maintain larger effects. See: Orosz, G., Péter-Szarka, S., Bőthe, B., Tóth-Király, I. and Berger, R. (2017), ‘How Not to Do a Mindset Intervention: Learning From a Mindset Intervention among Students with Good Grades’, Frontiers in Psychology, 8, 311. For an independent analysis, see the following blog on the British Psychological Society website: https://digest.bps.org.uk/2018/03/23/this-cheap-brief-growth-mindset-intervention-shifted-struggling-students-onto-a-more-successful-trajectory/.
36 Feynman, R.P. and Feynman, Michelle (2006), Don’t You Have Time to Think?, London: Penguin.
37 This episode is described in greater detail in Feynman’s memoir, Surely You’re Joking Mr Feynman.
38 Feynman and Feynman, Don’t You Have Time to Think, p. xxi.
39 Feynman, R. (1972), Nobel Lectures, Physics 1963?1970, Amsterdam: Elsevier. Retrieved online at https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1965/feynman-lecture.html.
40 Kahan, D.M., Landrum, A., Carpenter, K., Helft, L. and Hall Jamieson, K. (2017), ‘Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing’, Political Psychology, 38(S1), 179?99.
41 Kahan, D. (2016), ‘Science Curiosity and Identity-Protective Cognition . . . A Glimpse at a Possible (Negative) Relationship’, Cultural Cognition Project blog, http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2016/2/25/science-curiosity-and-identity-protective-cognition-a-glimps.html.
42 Porter, T. and Schumann, K. (2017), ‘Intellectual Humility and Openness to the Opposing View’, Self and Identity, 17(2), 1–24. Igor Grossmann, incidentally, has come to similar conclusions in one of his most recent studies: Brienza, J.P., Kung, F.Y.H., Santos, H.C., Bobocel, D.R. and Grossmann, I. (2017), ‘Wisdom, Bias, and Balance: Toward a Process-Sensitive Measurement of Wisdom-Related Cognition. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, advance online publication, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000171.
43 Brienza, Kung, Santos, Bobocel and Grossmann, ‘Wisdom, Bias, and Balance’.
44 Feynman, R.P. (2015), The Quotable Feynman, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, p. 283.
45 Morgan, E.S. (2003), Benjamin Franklin, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, p. 6.
46 Friend, T. (13 November 2017), ‘Getting On’, New Yorker, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/11/20/why-ageism-never-gets-old/amp.
47 Friedman, T.L. (22 February 2014), ‘How to Get a Job at Google’, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/opinion/sunday/friedman-how-to-get-a-job-at-google.html.
Chapter 8
1 Details of this story can be found in one of Stigler’s earliest works: Stevenson, H.W. and Stigler, J.W. (1992), The Learning Gap, New York: Summit Books, p. 16.
2 Waldow, F., Takayama, K. and Sung, Y.K. (2014), ‘Rethinking the Pattern of External Policy Referencing: Media Discourses Over the “Asian Tigers” ’ PISA Success in Australia, Germany and South Korea’, Comparative Education, 50(3), 302–21.
3 Baddeley, A.D. and Longman, D.J.A. (1978), ‘The Influence of Length and Frequency of Training Session on the Rate of Learning to Type’, Ergonomics, 21(8), 627–35.
4 Rohrer, D. (2012), ‘Interleaving Helps Students Distinguish Among Similar Concepts’, Educational Psychology Review, 24(3), 355?67.
5 See, for instance, Kornell, N., Hays, M.J. and Bjork, R.A. (2009), ‘Unsuccessful Retrieval Attempts Enhance Subsequent Learning’, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35(4), 989. DeCaro, M.S. (2018), ‘Reverse the Routine: Problem Solving Before Instruction Improves Conceptual Knowledge in Undergraduate Physics’, Contemporary Educational Psychology, 52, 36–47. Clark, C.M. and Bjork, R.A. (2014), ‘When and Why Introducing Difficulties and Errors Can Enhance Instruction’, in Benassi, V.A., Overson, C.E. and Hakala, C.M. (eds), Applying Science of Learning in Education: Infusing Psychological Science into the Curriculum, Washington, DC: Society for the Teaching of Psychology, pp. 20?30.
6 See, for instance, Kapur, Manu (2010), ‘Productive Failure in Mathematical Problem Solving’, Instructional Science, 38(6), 523–50. And Overoye, A.L. and Storm, B.C. (2015), ‘Harnessing the Power of Uncertainty to Enhance Learning’, Translational Issues in Psychological Science, 1(2), 140.
7 See, for instance, Susan Engel’s discussion of Ruth Graner and Rachel Brown’s work in Engel, S. (2015), The Hungry Mind, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, p. 118.
8 See the following articles for a review of these metacognitive illusions: Bjork, R.A., Dunlosky, J. and Kornell, N. (2013), ‘Self-regulated Learning: Beliefs, Techniques, and Illusions’, Annual Review of Psychology, 64, 417?44. Yan, V.X., Bjork, E.L. and Bjork, R.A. (2016), ‘On the Difficulty of Mending Metacognitive Illusions: A Priori Theories, Fluency Effects, and Misattributions of the Interleaving Benefit’, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145(7), 918?33.
9 For more information about these results, read Stigler’s earlier and later research. Hiebert, J. and Stigler, J.W. (2017), ‘The Culture of Teaching: A Global Perspective’, in International Handbook of Teacher Quality and Policy, Abingdon, England: Routledge, pp. 62–75. Stigler, J.W. and Hiebert, J. (2009), The Teaching Gap: Best Ideas from the World’s Teachers for Improving Education in the Classroom, New York: Simon & Schuster.
10 Park, H. (2010), ‘Japanese and Korean High Schools and Students in Comparative Perspective’, in Quality and Inequality of Education, Netherlands: Springer, pp. 255–73.
11 Hiebert and Stigler, ‘The Culture of Teaching’.
12 For a more in-depth discussion of these ideas, see Byrnes, J.P. and Dunbar, K.N. (2014), ‘The Nature and Development of Critical-analytic Thinking’, Educational Psychology Review, 26(4), 477–93.
13 See the following for further cross-cultural comparisons: Davies, M. and Barnett, R. (eds) (2015), The Palgrave Handbook of Critical Thinking in Higher Education, Netherlands: Springer.
14 For a comprehensive summary of this work, see Spencer-Rodgers, J., Williams, M.J. and Peng, K. (2010), ‘Cultural Differences in Expectations of Change and Tolerance for Contradiction: A Decade of Empirical Research’, Personality and Social Psychology Review, 14(3), 296–312.
15 Rowe, M.B. (1986), ‘Wait Time: Slowing Down May Be a Way of Speeding Up!’ Journal of Teacher Education, 37(1), 43–50.
16 Langer, E. (1997), The Power of Mindful Learning, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, p. 18.
17 Ritchhart, R. and Perkins, D.N. (2000), ‘Life in the Mindful Classroom: Nurturing the Disposition of Mindfulness’, Journal of Social Issues, 56(1), 27?47.
18 Although Langer has pioneered the benefits of ambiguity in education, other scientists have shown comparably powerful results. Similarly, Robert S. Siegler and Xiaodong Lin have found that children learn mathematics and physics best when they are asked to think through right and wrong answers to problems, since this encourages them to consider alternative strategies and to identify ineffective ways of thinking. See, for example, Siegler, R.S. and Lin, X., ‘Self-explanations Promote Children’s Learning’, in Borkowski, J.G., Waters, H.S. and Schneider, W. (eds) (2010), Metacognition, Strategy Use, and Instruction, New York: Guilford, pp. 86?113.
19 Langer, The Power of Mindful Learning, p. 29. And Overoye, A.L. and Storm, B.C. (2015), ‘Harnessing the Power of Uncertainty to Enhance Learning’, Translational Issues in Psychological Science, 1(2), 140. See also Engel, S. (2011), ‘Children’s Need to Know: Curiosity in Schools’, Harvard Educational Review, 81(4), 625–45.
20 Brackett, M.A., Rivers, S.E., Reyes, M.R. and Salovey, P. (2012), ‘Enhancing Academic Performance and Social and Emotional Competence with the RULER Feeling Words Curriculum’, Learning and Individual Differences, 22(2), 218–24. Jacobson, D., Parker, A., Spetzler, C., De Bruin, W.B., Hollenbeck, K., Heckerman, D. and Fischhoff, B. (2012), ‘Improved Learning in US History and Decision Competence with Decision-focused Curriculum’, PLOS One, 7(9), e45775.
21 The following study, for instance, shows that greater intellectual humility completely eradicates the differences in academic achievement that you normally find between high- and low-ability students. Hu, J., Erdogan, B., Jiang, K., Bauer, T.N. and Liu, S. (2018), ‘Leader Humility and Team Creativity: The Role of Team Information Sharing, Psychological Safety, and Power Distance’, Journal of Applied Psychology, 103(3), 313.
22 For the sources of these suggestions, see Bjork, Dunlosky and Kornell, ‘Self-regulated Learning’. Soderstrom, N.C. and Bjork, R.A. (2015), ‘Learning Versus Performance: An Integrative Review’, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 10(2), 176–99. Benassi, V.A., Overson, C. and Hakala, C.M. (2014), Applying Science of Learning in Education: Infusing Psychological Science into the Curriculum, American Psychological Association.
23 See, for example, the following blog post by psychologist and musician Christine Carter for more information: https://bulletproofmusician.com/why-the-progress-in-the-practice-room-seems-to-disappear-overnight/.
24 Langer, E., Russel, T. and Eisenkraft, N. (2009), ‘Orchestral Performance and the Footprint of Mindfulness’, Psychology of Music, 37(2), 125–36.
25 These data have been released on the IVA’s website: http://www.ivalongbeach.org/academics/curriculum/61-academics/test-scores-smarter-balanced.
Chapter 9
1 Taylor, D. (2016, June 27), ‘England Humiliated as Iceland Knock Them Out of Euro 2016’, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/27/england-iceland-euro-2016-match-report.
2 See, for example, http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/international/england-vs-iceland-steve-mcclaren-reaction-goal-euro-2016-a7106896.html.
3 Taylor, ‘England Humiliated as Iceland Knock Them Out of Euro 2016’.
4 Wall, K. (27 June 2016), ‘Iceland Wins Hearts at Euro 2016 as Soccer’s Global Underdog’, Time, http://time.com/4383403/iceland-soccer-euro-2016-england/.
5 Zeileis, A., Leitner, C. and Hornik, K. (2016), ‘Predictive Bookmaker Consensus Model for the UEFA Euro 2016’, Working Papers in Economics and Statistics, No. 2016–15, https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/146132/1/859777529.pdf.
6 Woolley, A.W., Aggarwal, I. and Malone, T.W. (2015), ‘Collective Intelligence and Group Performance’, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(6), 420?4.
7 Wuchty, S., Jones, B.F. and Uzzi, B. (2007), ‘The Increasing Dominance of Teams in Production of Knowledge’, Science, 316(5827), 1036?9.
8 Woolley, A.W., Chabris, C.F., Pentland, A., Hashmi, N. and Malone, T.W. (2010), ‘Evidence for a Collective Intelligence Factor in the Performance of Human Groups’, Science, 330(6004), 686?8.
9 Engel, D., Woolley, A.W., Jing, L.X., Chabris, C.F. and Malone, T.W. (2014), ‘Reading the Mind in the Eyes or Reading between the Lines? Theory of Mind Predicts Collective Intelligence Equally Well Online and Face-to-face’, PLOS One, 9(12), e115212.
10 Mayo, A.T. and Woolley, A.W. (2016), ‘Teamwork in Health Care: Maximizing Collective Intelligence via Inclusive Collaboration and Open Communication’, AMA Journal of Ethics, 18(9), 933?40.
11 Woolley, Aggarwal and Malone (2015), ‘Collective Intelligence and Group Performance’.
12 Kim, Y.J., Engel, D., Woolley, A.W., Lin, J.Y.T., McArthur, N. and Malone, T.W. (2017), ‘What Makes a Strong Team? Using Collective Intelligence to Predict Team Performance in League of Legends’, in Proceedings of the 2017 ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing, New York: ACM, pp. 2316?29.
13 See, for example, Ready, D.A. and Conger, J.A. (2007), ‘Make Your Company a Talent Factory’, Harvard Business Review, 85(6), 68?77. The following paper also offers original surveys as well as a broader discussion of our preference for ‘talent’ at the expense of teamwork: Swaab, R.I., Schaerer, M., Anicich, E.M., Ronay, R. and Galinsky, A.D. (2014), ‘The Too-much-talent Effect: Team Interdependence Determines When More Talent Is Too Much or Not Enough’, Psychological Science, 25(8), 1581?91. See also Alvesson, M. and Spicer, A. (2016), The Stupidity Paradox: The Power and Pitfalls of Functional Stupidity at Work, London: Profile, Kindle Edition (Kindle location 1492?1504).
14 This work was a collaboration with Cameron Anderson, also at the University of California, Berkeley. Hildreth, J.A.D. and Anderson, C. (2016), ‘Failure at the Top: How Power Undermines Collaborative Performance’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 110(2), 261?86.
15 Greer, L.L., Caruso, H.M. and Jehn, K.A. (2011), ‘The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall: Linking Team Power, Team Conflict, and Performance’, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 116(1), 116?28.
16 Groysberg, B., Polzer, J.T. and Elfenbein, H.A. (2011), ‘Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth: How High-Status Individuals Decrease Group Effectiveness’, Organization Science, 22(3), 722?37.
17 Kishida, K.T., Yang, D., Quartz, K.H., Quartz, S.R. and Montague, P.R. (2012), ‘Implicit Signals in Small Group Settings and Their Impact on the Expression of Cognitive Capacity and Associated Brain Responses’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 367(1589), 704–16.
18 ‘Group Settings Can Diminish Expressions of Intelligence, Especially among Women’, Virginia Tech Carilion Research Institute, http://research.vtc.vt.edu/news/2012/jan/22/group-settings-can-diminish-expressions-intelligen/.
19 Galinsky, A., Schweitzer, M. (2015), ‘The Problem of Too Much Talent’, The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/09/hierarchy-friend-foe-too-much-talent/401150/
20 Swaab, R.I., Schaerer, M., Anicich, E.M., Ronay, R. and Galinsky, A.D. (2014), ‘The Too-much-talent Effect’.
21 Herbert, I. (27 June 2016), ‘England vs Iceland: Too Wealthy, Too Famous, Too Much Ego ? Joe Hart Epitomises Everything That’s Wrong’, Independent, http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/international/england-vs-iceland-reaction-too-rich-too-famous-too-much-ego-joe-hart-epitomises-everything-that-is-a7106591.html.
22 Roberto, M.A. (2002), ‘Lessons From Everest: The Interaction of Cognitive Bias, Psychological Safety, and System Complexity’, California Management Review, 45(1), 136?58.
23 https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/everest/stories/leadership.html.
24 Schwartz, S. (2008), ‘The 7 Schwartz Cultural Value Orientation Scores for 80 Countries’, doi: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3313.3040.
25 Anicich, E.M., Swaab, R.I., & Galinsky, A. D. (2015). Hierarchical cultural values predict success and mortality in high-stakes teams. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(5), 1338?43.
26 Jang, S. (2017). ‘Cultural Brokerage and Creative Performance in Multicultural Teams’, Organization Science, 28(6), 993–1009.
27 Ou, A.Y., Waldman, D.A. and Peterson, S.J. (2015), ‘Do Humble CEOs Matter? An Examination of CEO Humility and Firm Outcomes’, Journal of Management, 44(3), 1147?73. For further discussion of the benefits of humble leaders, and the reasons we don’t often value their humility, see Mayo, M. (2017), ‘If Humble People Make the Best Leaders, Why Do We Fall for Charismatic Narcissists?’ Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2017/04/if-humble-people-make-the-best-leaders-why-do-we-fall-for-charismatic-narcissists. Heyden, M.L.M. and Hayward, M. (2017), ‘It’s Hard to Find a Humble CEO: Here’s Why’, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/its-hard-to-find-a-humble-ceo-heres-why-81951. Rego, A., Owens, B., Leal, S., Melo, A.I., e Cunha, M.P., Gonçalves, L. and Ribeiro, P. (2017), ‘How Leader Humility Helps Teams to Be Humbler, Psychologically Stronger, and More Effective: A Moderated Mediation Model’, The Leadership Quarterly, 28(5), 639–58.
28 Cable, D. (23 April 2018), ‘How Humble Leadership Really Works’, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/04/how-humble-leadership-really-works.
29 Rieke, M., Hammermeister, J. and Chase, M. (2008), ‘Servant Leadership in Sport: A New Paradigm for Effective Coach Behavior’, International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, 3(2), 227?39.
30 Abdul-Jabbar, K. (2017), Coach Wooden and Me: Our 50-Year Friendship On and Off the Court, New York: Grand Central. The following article provides a more in-depth discussion of Wooden’s coaching style and the lessons it may teach business leaders: Riggio, R.E. (2010), ‘The Leadership of John Wooden’, Psychology Today blog, https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/cutting-edge-leadership/201006/the-leadership-john-wooden.
31 Ames, N. (13 June 2016), ‘Meet Heimir Hallgrimsson, Iceland’s Co-manager and Practicing Dentist’, ESPN blog, http://www.espn.com/soccer/club/iceland/470/blog/post/2879337/meet-heimir-hallgrimsson-icelands-co-manager-and-practicing-dentist.
Chapter 10
1 See, for instance, Izon, D., Danenberger, E.P. and Mayes, M. (2007), ‘Absence of Fatalities in Blowouts Encouraging in MMS Study of OCS Incidents 1992–2006’, Drilling Contractor, 63(4), 84–9. Gold, R. and Casselman, B. (30 April 2010), ‘Drilling Process Attracts Scrutiny in Rig Explosion’, Wall Street Journal, 30.
2 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/dec/07/transocean-oil-rig-north-sea-deepwater-horizon.
3 Vaughan, A. (16 January 2018), ‘BP’s Deepwater Horizon Bill Tops $65bn’, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/16/bps-deepwater-horizon-bill-tops-65bn.
4 Barstow, D., Rohde, D. and Saul, S. (25 December 2010), ‘Deepwater Horizon’s Final Hours’, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/us/26spill.html. And Goldenberg, S. (8 November 2010), ‘BP Had Little Defence against a Disaster, Federal Investigation Says’, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/nov/08/bp-little-defence-deepwater-disaster.
5 Spicer, A. (2004), ‘Making a World View? Globalisation Discourse in a Public Broadcaster’, PhD thesis, Department of Management, University of Melbourne, https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/35838.
6 Alvesson, M. and Spicer, A. (2016), The Stupidity Paradox: The Power and Pitfalls of Functional Stupidity at Work, London: Profile, Kindle Edition (Kindle Locations 61?7).
7 Alvesson and Spicer, The Stupidity Paradox (Kindle Locations 192?8).
8 Grossman, Z. (2014), ‘Strategic Ignorance and the Robustness of Social Preferences’, Management Science, 60(11), 2659?65.
9 Spicer has written about this research in more depth for The Conversation: Spicer, A. (2015), ‘ “Fail Early, Fail Often” Mantra Forgets Entrepreneurs Fail to Learn’, https://theconversation.com/fail-early-fail-often-mantra-forgets-entrepreneurs-fail-to-learn-51998.
10 Huy, Q. and Vuori, T. (2015), ‘Who Killed Nokia? Nokia Did’, INSEAD Knowledge, https://knowledge.insead.edu/strategy/who-killed-nokia-nokia-did-4268. Vuori, T.O. and Huy, Q.N. (2016), ‘Distributed Attention and Shared Emotions in the Innovation Process: How Nokia Lost the Smartphone Battle’, Administrative Science Quarterly, 61(1), 9?51.
11 Grossmann, I. (2017), ‘Wisdom in Context’, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(2), 233?57; Staw, B.M., Sandelands, L.E. and Dutton, J.E. (1981), ‘Threat Rigidity Effects in Organizational Behavior: A Multilevel Analysis’, Administrative Science Quarterly, 26(4), 501?24.
12 The entire slideshow is available here: https://www.slideshare.net/reed2001/culture-1798664.
13 Feynman, R. (1986), ‘Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident’, Volume 2, Appendix F, https://spaceflight.nasa.gov/outreach/SignificantIncidents/assets/rogers_commission_report.pdf.
14 Dillon, R.L. and Tinsley, C.H. (2008), ‘How Near-misses Influence Decision Making under Risk: A Missed Opportunity for Learning’, Management Science, 54(8), 1425?40.
15 Tinsley, C.H., Dillon, R.L. and Madsen, P.M. (2011), ‘How to Avoid Catastrophe’, Harvard Business Review, 89(4), 90?7.
16 Accord, H. and Camry, T. (2013), ‘Near-misses and Failure (Part 1)’, Harvard Business Review, 89(4), 90?7.
17 Cole, R.E. (2011), ‘What Really Happened to Toyota?’ MIT Sloan Management Review, 52(4).
18 Cole, ‘What Really Happened to Toyota?’
19 Dillon, R.L., Tinsley, C.H., Madsen, P.M. and Rogers, E.W. (2016), ‘Organizational Correctives for Improving Recognition of Near-miss Events’, Journal of Management, 42(3), 671?97.
20 Tinsley, Dillon and Madsen, ‘How to Avoid Catastrophe’.
21 Dillon, Tinsley, Madsen and Rogers, ‘Organizational Correctives for Improving Recognition of Near-miss Events’.
22 Reader, T.W. and O’Connor, P. (2014), ‘The Deepwater Horizon Explosion: Non-Technical Skills, Safety Culture, and System Complexity’, Journal of Risk Research, 17(3), 405?24. See also House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations (25 May 2010), ‘Memorandum “Key Questions Arising From Inquiry into the Deepwater Horizon Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill” ’, online at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/homepage/memo_bp_waxman.pdf.
23 Tinsley, C.H., Dillon, R.L. and Cronin, M.A. (2012), ‘How Near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making’, Management Science, 58(9), 1596?1613.
24 Tinsley, Dillon and Madsen, ‘How to Avoid Catastrophe’.
25 National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (2011), Deep Water: The Gulf Oil Disaster and the Future of Offshore Drilling, p. 224, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-OILCOMMISSION/pdf/GPO-OILCOMMISSION.pdf.
26 Deepwater Horizon Study Group (2011), ‘Final Report on the Investigation of the Macondo Well Blowout’, Center for Catastrophic Risk Management, University of California at Berkeley, http://ccrm.berkeley.edu/pdfs_papers/bea_pdfs/dhsgfinalreport-march2011-tag.pdf.
27 Weick, K.E., Sutcliffe, K.M. and Obstfeld, D. (2008), ‘Organizing for High Reliability: Processes of Collective Mindfulness’, Crisis Management, 3(1), 31?66. Plain-language explanations of the characteristics of mindful organisations were also inspired by the following paper: Sutcliffe, K.M. (2011), ‘High Reliability Organizations (HROs)’, Best Practice and Research Clinical Anaesthesiology, 25(2), 133?44.
28 Bronstein, S. and Drash, W. (2010), ‘Rig Survivors: BP Ordered Shortcut on Day of Blast’, CNN, http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/06/08/oil.rig.warning.signs/index.html.
29 ‘The Loss of USS Thresher (SSN-593)’ (2014), http://ussnautilus.org/blog/the-loss-of-uss-thresher-ssn-593/.
30 National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (2011), Deep Water: The Gulf Oil Disaster and the Future of Offshore Drilling, p. 229, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-OILCOMMISSION/pdf/GPO-OILCOMMISSION.pdf.
31 Cochrane, B.S., Hagins Jr, M., Picciano, G., King, J.A., Marshall, D.A., Nelson, B. and Deao, C. (2017), ‘High Reliability in Healthcare: Creating the Culture and Mindset for Patient Safety’, Healthcare Management Forum, 30(2), 61–8.
32 See the following paper for one example: Roberts, K.H., Madsen, P., Desai, V. and Van Stralen, D. (2005), ‘A Case of the Birth and Death of a High Reliability Healthcare Organisation’, BMJ Quality & Safety, 14(3), 216–20. A further discussion can also be found here: Sutcliffe, K.M., Vogus, T.J. and Dane, E. (2016), ‘Mindfulness in Organizations: A Cross-level Review’, Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior, 3, 55–81.
33 Dweck, C. (2014), ‘Talent: How Companies Can Profit From a “Growth Mindset” ’, Harvard Business Review, 92(11), 7.
34 National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Deep Water, p. 237.
35 Carter, J.P. (2006), ‘The Transformation of the Nuclear Power Industry’, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, 4(6), 25?33.
36 Koch, W. (20 April 2015), ‘Is Deepwater Drilling Safer, 5 Years after Worst Oil Spill?’ National Geographic, https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/04/150420-bp-gulf-oil-spill-safety-five-years-later/. See also the following for a discussion of the oil industry’s self-regulation, and the reasons it is not comparable to INPO: ‘An Update on Self-Regulation in the Oil Drilling Industry’ (2012), George Washington Journal of Energy and Environmental Law, https://gwjeel.com/2012/02/08/an-update-on-self-regulation-in-the-oil-drilling-industry/.
37 Beyer, J., Trannum, H.C., Bakke, T., Hodson, P.V. and Collier, T.K. (2016), ‘Environmental Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Review’, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 110(1), 28?51.
38 Lane, S.M., et al. (November 2015), ‘Reproductive Outcome and Survival of Common Bottlenose Dolphins Sampled in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA, Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill’, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 282(1818), 20151944.
39 Jamail, D. (20 April 2012), ‘Gulf Seafood Deformities Alarm Scientists’, Al Jazeera.com, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/04/201241682318260912.html.
Epilogue
1 Besides the material covered in Chapters 1, 7 and 8, see the following: Jacobson, D., Parker, A., Spetzler, C., De Bruin, W.B., Hollenbeck, K., Heckerman, D. and Fischhoff, B. (2012), ‘Improved Learning in US History and Decision Competence with Decision-focused Curriculum’, PLOS One, 7(9), e45775.
2 Owens, B.P., Johnson, M.D. and Mitchell, T.R. (2013), ‘Expressed Humility in Organizations: Implications for Performance, Teams, and Leadership’, Organization Science, 24(5), 1517–38.
3 Sternberg, R.J. (in press), ‘Race to Samarra: The Critical Importance of Wisdom in the World Today’, in Sternberg, R.J. and Glueck, J. (eds), Cambridge Handbook of Wisdom (2nd edn), New York: Cambridge University Press.
4 Howell, L. (2013), ‘Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World’, WEF Report, 3, 15–94.
5 Wang, H. and Li, J. (2015), ‘How Trait Curiosity Influences Psychological Well-Being and Emotional Exhaustion: The Mediating Role of Personal Initiative’, Personality and Individual Differences, 75, 135?40.