Aberdeen, Lord, 349–50, 353–54, 362, 369–71
Acheson, Dean, 208–10, 272–75, 273n39, 280
Africa, 63, 133, 248, 253, 269, 327, 352, 357, 359, 410–11, 438, 440–41, 444. See also Fashoda Crisis of 1898; South African (Boer) War; and individual cases for new imperialism, 1878–85
Alexander II, 102
Alexseev, Yevgeni, 112–13, 116, 119, 121
alliances, 9–10, 40, 290, 360, 366, 382, 430, 436, 442; Anglo-Japanese, 101, 110–11, 117, 126; Chinese-Russian (1896), 107; Dual, 91, 382; French-Italian (1859), 377; Holy, 327; North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 315–17; Russo-Turkish (1833), 333, 336; Sino-Soviet (1950), 272–75, 273n38; Soviet-Iranian (1921), 234, 281; Three Emperors’ League, 382; Tripartite Pact, 178–79, 181, 185, 189–92, 194, 197–98, 197n8, 203, 206–7, 215–16, 221–22, 228–31; Triple Alliance, 382; Triple Entente, 92n37, 126; US-Soviet (1941–45), 221, 234; United States and “Western Allies” (1945), 259, 262, 271
anarchy: definition of, 7; implications of, 7, 14, 17, 21–22, 37, 41–43, 386, 389, 423, 440; survival in, 21, 28, 31; trust within, 42, 42n46. See also military-security dilemma; spiraling; trade-security dilemma; trust and mistrust
Arbatov, Georgi, 313
Arita, Hachiro, 177
arms spending, increases in, 10, 122, 128, 153–54, 291–92, 297–98, 301, 305, 312–13, 436. See also balance of power; balancing behavior; neorealism; offensive realism; trade expectations theory
Auckland, Lord, 334
Austria, 76n30, 91, 336, 354, 361–62;
Austrian intervention in Spain (1821), 80, 327, 373; German Confederation and, 379; Holy Roman Empire and, 379; war with France (1859), 82, 375, 377. See also Austro-Prussian War (1866); Crimean War; Germany (Prussia); Russia
Austro-Prussian War (1866), 82, 375, 378–79, 381, 427; Danish-Prussian War as precursor to, 379. See also Austria; Germany (Prussia)
autarky, 31–33, 133, 136–37, 140–41, 269; moving away from, 8–9, 35–36. See also international political economy
authoritarianism, 1, 14, 34, 55–58, 135–36, 252, 269, 432–33, 435. See also democracy, as cause of war or peace
Baker, James, 315
balance of power, 12, 18n2, 150, 229, 243, 269, 278, 300, 303–4, 322, 326–27, 336
balancing behavior, 9–10, 92n37, 254, 360, 429, 436
Ball, George, 302
Barbieri, Katherine, 24, 54–56
bargaining model of war, 12–13, 21, 38, 39–41, 184n1, 360, 430; bargaining and diplomacy, 9, 29, 38, 40, 47–48, 142, 148, 189, 216, 229, 253, 257, 267–68, 272, 293, 297, 299, 302, 304, 339, 351, 430; bargaining and signaling, 16, 20–21, 20n6, 21n7, 21n9, 38, 39–43, 110, 430, 438–39; bargaining space, 40, 47, 339, 351, 430. See also commitment problem; costly signaling; diplomacy, role of; leveraging; signaling arguments
Barnhart, Michael, 177, 213, 217n21
Basserman, Manfred von, 130
Belgium, 76n30, 96, 131, 260, 264, 333, 358, 380, 405, 406n23, 414; British-French crisis over (1831), 81, 331n11
Benedetti, Edouard, 380
Benson, Michelle, 68n20
Beria, Lavrenty, 256
Berlin Crisis (1948), 88, 92, 269–70; liberalism and, 270, 435; trade expectations theory and, 271. See also Stalin, Joseph; Truman, Harry S.
Berlin Crisis (1961), 89, 301–3. See also Cold War (1956–62); Kennedy, John F.; Khrushchev, Nikita
Bezobrazov, Alexander, 112–16, 121
Bismarck, Herbert, 400
Bismarck, Otto von, 38, 93, 376, 378–83, 385, 388, 391–92; dislike of colonies, 385, 399–407, 432
Boer War. See South African (Boer) War
Bourne, Kenneth, 343
Britain, 4, 102, 152, 292, 296, 298, 310, 321; and Afghanistan, 332–34, 343–44; Anglo-Japanese alliance, 101, 110–11, 117; Belgian Crisis (1831), 81, 331n11; British-Chinese trade, 101, 103, 107, 114–15, 334, 337–47; British-German naval race, pre-1914, 125n32, 418–19, 419n37, 442n15; British-German trade relations, 29, 124–26, 128–29, 140–41; British-Japanese relations, 101, 108, 110–11, 116–17, 147, 150, 152–53, 156, 158, 160–61, 165, 168, 175, 177–82, 185, 188, 200–204, 209, 222, 233; British-Russian competition over Near East and Central Asia, 319–20, 327, 330, 332–34; Cape to Cairo railway, 410; Cobden-Chevalier Treaty, 377–78, 385; Corn Laws, 355; fear of Germany, pre-1914, 128–29; free trade, switch to, 355, 358; Great Game with Russia, 101, 103–4, 110, 334; gunboat diplomacy and, 334–35, 385, 394; imperial preference and, 29, 124–25, 128–29, 135, 137–38, 141, 147, 160, 412; mercantilism and, 322–23; open door and, 108, 116–17; and the Suez Canal, 277, 282–88, 282n48, 394, 397–98; and tariff reform, pre-1914, 124–25, 128–29, 129n42, 412–14; and trade growth, post-1750, 322, 325; and Turkey, propping up of, 322–33, 335, 355–57, 373. See also Crimean War; Fashoda Crisis of 1898; India; Japan; Opium War (1839–41); South African (Boer) War; Venezuela Crisis (1895); and Britain, individual case periods
Britain (1823–30 case period), 80, 327, 330–31; liberalism and, 331; trade expectations theory and, 330–31, 373
Britain (1830–40 case period), 15, 81, 91n35, 331–37, 343; economic realism and, 336–37; trade expectations theory and, 336–37, 373, 435
Britain (1878–85, and new imperialism), 45, 83, 91n35, 375–76, 385, 394–99, 435; British-French spiral over West Africa, 83, 378, 385, 388, 391, 394n18; British trade expectations and, 396, 398–99; and concern for French expansionism, 387–88, 393n16, 399; Cyprus and, 392, 394; domestic politics and, 395; Dual Control system, 396–97; economic realism and, 426; Egypt and, 44, 394n18, 395–99; Fiji and, 385, 403–4; “gentlemanly elite” and, 395–96; and India-China trade, importance of, 398–99; liberalism and, 395, 426; Malaya and, 385, 395; neo-Marxism and, 395–96; Suez Canal and, 394, 397–98; trade expectations theory and, 399, 426; trade-security spiral and, 387, 391, 426–27; Turkey and, 396–98. See also France (1878–85, and new imperialism); Germany (1878–85, and new imperialism)
Britain (1876–78, and Eastern Question Crisis), 83, 383–84. See also Bismarck, Otto von; Disraeli, Benjamin
Brooks, Stephen, 19n3
Brunnow, Philip, 362
Bulgaria, 250, 261, 266n30, 383–84, 395
Bulgarin, Nikolai, 283
Bullitt, William, 253n11
Burke, Arleigh, 285
Buzan, Barry, 29n24
Byrnes, James, 267
Cain, Peter, 395
Canada, 124–25, 322, 385, 415, 420
Canning, Stratford, 351, 366–67, 370
capitalism, 20, 22–24, 26, 63–64, 248, 312, 317, 338, 385–86, 392, 395, 408, 417, 426, 433
Cavour, Camille de, 377
Chamberlain, Joseph, 124, 129, 411–27
Chiang, Kai-shek, 86, 95n45, 139, 147–49, 155–62, 164, 167–74, 177, 179, 186, 191–96, 215, 229, 238–41, 243, 245, 258, 266
China, 1, 4, 6, 8, 32, 41, 97, 103; Boxer Rebellion, 107–8; Britain and, 103, 115, 355; Chinese Eastern Railway, 107–8, 118, 150, 159; Korean War and, 272–75; Liaodong Peninsula, 100–101, 105–7, 111, 121, 148, 150, 159, 258; as market for other great powers, 101–4; open door and, 101–2, 108, 110, 151–52, 176–77, 179, 190, 215–16, 221, 439; Treaty of Shimonoseki, 106–7. See also Chiang Kai-shek; Cold War (1942–45, origins of); Korean War; Kuomintang Party; Manchuria; Opium War (1839–41); Sino-American relations, contemporary; Sino-Japanese War (1894); Sino-Japanese War (1937)
Churchill, Winston, 207–12, 235, 238–40, 255, 265, 279
Clarendon, Lord, 335, 356, 369–71
Clayton, William, 262
Cobden, Richard, 19n3, 356, 377–78, 395
coercive diplomacy, use of, 2, 7, 9, 11, 20–21, 23, 29, 32, 42, 57, 62, 102, 107–8, 144, 153, 166, 174, 179–80, 188, 198, 218, 228, 267, 269, 271, 282, 300, 329, 348, 351, 368–70, 397, 416, 419, 422–25, 427. See also diplomacy, role of; leveraging
Cold War, 5, 26, 29, 38, 66, 105, 431, 438, 442. See also Berlin Crisis (1948); Berlin Crisis (1961); Iran (Crisis of 1944); Iran (Crisis of 1946); Iran (Crisis of 1950–53); Korean War; Russia; Suez Crisis (1956); and Cold War, individual case periods
Cold War (1942–45, origins of) 5, 44–45, 87, 246, 247–66; China and, 252, 258; Eastern Europe and, 250, 253, 258–60, 266, 266n30; German reintegration and, 258–59, 264–65; Germany and, 258, 264–66; liberalism and, 247–48, 250; neoclassical realism and, 248n3; neo-Marxism and, 248; Poland and, 250, 260–63, 260n22, 263n26; Potsdam and, 258n17, 265; and power preponderance, importance of, 249, 251; realism and, 247–48, 250; responsibility for, 251–52, 252n9, 266; Soviet loan requests and, 258–59; and Soviet trade expectations, 5, 249, 256–57, 259, 263–64, 266; trade expectations theory and, 249–52, 261–66; trade-security spiral and, 251; Truman Doctrine, 251, 268–69; US efforts to prevent Soviet growth, 250–52, 431, 435; US fear of loss of periphery, 5, 249–52, 269; US fear of Western Europe going Communist, 4, 250–51, 258–59; 264–65, 430; US trade expectations, 249–52, 266. See also Roosevelt, Franklin D.; Stalin, Joseph; Truman, Harry S.
Cold War (1956–62), 38, 89, 91n36, 250; bargaining strategy of Eisenhower and, 293–94, 297; CoCom and, 290, 290n52; and missile gap, potential of, 291; and mutually assured destruction, absence of, 89, 294, 300, 303–4; potential détente and role of trade, 295–304; power oscillations and, 303; puzzles of, 289; Soviet desire for détente, 289, 292, 296–99; Soviet economic offensive and, 289–90; Soviet fear of decline, 301–3; Soviet oil exports and, 294–95; Soviet strategic vulnerability and, 290–91, 298–99; strategic nuclear balance and, 89, 291, 297, 300, 303–4; trade expectations theory and, 89, 289; trade-security dilemma and, 294; US desire for détente, 291, 295, 300; US economic restrictions and, 289–90, 293; US fear of decline, 291, 293–95, 301, 303; U 2 Crisis, 299–300; Western Europe and, 290, 290n52. See also Berlin Crisis (1961); Cuban Missile Crisis; Eisenhower, Dwight D.; Khrushchev, Nikita; third world, US-Soviet struggle over the
Cold War (1963–83, détente and aftermath), 5, 9, 38, 90, 92n37, 249, 289, 304–10; arms control and, 305; breakdown of cooperation, 46, 90, 431; importance of US-Soviet trade to Russian growth, 9, 305–6; Jackson-Vanik Amendment and, 308–9; liberalism and, 310; linkage strategy and, 46, 304–5; moderation of Soviet behavior and, 306–8; and mutually assured destruction, role of, 90, 294, 304; Soviet economic decline and, 304; and Soviet trade expectations, 38, 306, 309, 431, 434; trade expectations theory and, 289, 310; US domestic politics and, 90, 306, 308, 431; Vietnam and, 304–7, 309; Watergate and, 46, 90, 306, 308–9, 310, 431; Yom Kippur War and, 307–8. See also Brezhnev, Leonid; Egypt; Israel; Kissinger, Henry A.; Nixon, Richard M.
Cold War (1984–91, end of), 5, 38, 90, 92n37, 247, 249, 310–18; arms control and, 313–14; G7 summit and, 317; ideational arguments for, 310; importance of US-Soviet trade to Russian growth, 90, 312–16; moderation in Soviet behavior, 314–17; Soviet economic decline and, 90, 311–12; Soviet trade expectations and, 5, 311, 314–18, 434; trade-security spiral and 317–18; trade expectations theory and, 289, 310. See also Bush, George H. W.; Gorbachev, Mikhail; Reagan, Ronald
commitment problem, 12–13, 40–43, 47, 60, 62, 121n22, 233, 325, 351; efforts to signal commitment, 38, 60, 62–63, 248, 273–75, 280, 303, 327, 351, 366, 368, 433–34, 439–40, 445; trade-security spiral and, 47–48. See also bargaining model of war; costly signaling; signaling arguments; trade expectations theory
Congress of Vienna, 325
constructivism, 19n3
contract-intensive economies, 60, 62, 433
costly signaling, 20n6, 21, 25, 40, 63–64, 64n16, 366n37
Crescenzi, Mark, 19n3
Crimean War, 4, 44, 320, 330, 347–72, 383, 435; British-French antagonism and, 352, 362, 365, 369; British-Russian cooperation (1839–1853), 336, 352–54, 362–63; British-Russian trade, 349n26; British-Russian trade competition, 357–58; British-Russian understanding of trade-security dilemma, 351–52, 358; British trade dependence and, 355–57, 355n30; Constantinople, role of, 352–53, 358, 363–64; Danubian Principalities and, 368; differing British-Russian estimates of Turkey’s collapse, 354, 361, 363–65; domestic politics and, 349–50, 360, 369, 388n13; French motives, 360; Holy Lands dispute, 348, 350–51, 359–61, 367; importance of formalized agreement and, 350–51, 366–68; as inadvertent war, 347, 349–50, 370; Montenegran revolts and, 361, 364; Nesselrode memorandum, 354; Orthodox Christians in Balkans and, 348, 350, 359, 361, 363, 365; Russian-Austrian antagonism, 361–62, 364; Russian fear of Turkish collapse, 348, 350–51, 353, 361–66, 368; Russian-French antagonism, 352–53, 359–61, 364–66; Russian preference for Turkey’s continued existence, 329–30, 333, 336, 348, 350–55, 358–68, 373; Russian trade dependence and, 348, 357–59; Turkey’s commitment problem and, 350–51, 353, 366–67; Turkish instability and, 351–52, 354, 361; Turkish Straits and, 348, 352–53, 364, 368, 372; Vienna Note, 368, 371. See also Aberdeen, Lord; Napoléon III; Nicholas I
crisis escalation, 11, 38, 40, 122, 147, 171, 174, 257, 276, 281, 349–51, 366, 370, 373. See also military-security dilemma; spiraling; trade-security dilemma
Cuban Missile Crisis, 89, 301–2. See also Berlin Crisis (1961); Cold War (1956–62)
Cutler, Robert, 293
Dafoe, Allan, 64n18
Dallek, Robert, 252
Darby, Philip, 396
Davis, James, 126n34
decline, 2, 5, 40–41, 47–49, 66, 84, 87, 122–23, 271, 276, 318; causes of, 3, 3n4; commitment problem and, 13, 121n22; as exogenous force leading to conflict, 2–3, 11, 45, 48, 429, 435; and fear of future intentions, 40, 109, 252, 377, 440. See also dynamic approaches to theory; preventive war; trade expectations theory; and individual cases
defensive realism, 9–10, 12; insights of, 10, 12, 43, 429, 436; weaknesses of, 10, 436. See also economic realism; neorealism; offensive realism
Delbruck, Clemens von, 132
democracy, as cause of war or peace, 25–26, 43n48, 52, 54–67, 100, 145, 152, 154, 181, 349, 411, 427, 433–35
democratic peace, 25, 52, 54–67, 411, 427, 433–35
democratization, as cause of war, 100, 349
Deng, Xiao-ping, 439
dependent variable of study, vii, 1, 3, 3n2, 77
deterrence, use of, 11, 148, 158, 167, 175, 178, 180, 188, 202–4, 211–12, 233–36, 273, 290, 303, 308, 370–71, 383, 393, 421, 438
development, and tie to peace, 24–25, 52, 58–63
Dillon, Douglas, 292, 295–96, 298–99
diplomacy, role of, 9, 11, 29, 38–39, 63, 99–100, 110–11, 117–22, 145–46, 150–56, 159–60, 166, 170, 177–82, 186–87, 189–98, 204–7, 211–16, 219, 221–29, 236–37, 240, 240n46, 241–48, 241n48, 242n50, 244, 259–60, 262–66, 279–80, 287, 291–300, 305–8, 312–17, 320, 332–33, 336, 348, 352–54, 362–68, 371, 380–81, 383–85, 393–94, 387, 403–5, 408–11, 416–18, 422–27, 434, 438–39. See also bargaining model of war; coercive diplomacy, use of; crisis escalation; endogeneity; spiraling
Disraeli, Benjamin, 383–84, 394–95
diversionary motives, as cause of war, 81, 86, 95n45, 123–24, 168–70, 388–89, 388n13, 432n2. See also Sino-Japanese War (1937)
domestic support, as facilitating factor for war, 72–73, 75, 83, 85, 383
Dulles, John Foster, 276, 281, 283–84, 286–87, 287n51
dynamic approaches to theory, 3, 17–18, 17n1, 27–28, 33–38, 40–42, 50, 97, 101, 123, 310, 444; role of the future in building, 2–18, 27–50, 428–34, 444–45; role of the future in testing, 52–53, 57–58, 60, 62–63, 68–69, 74–75
Eastern Question Crisis (1875–78), 83, 382–84; economic realism and, 384; offensive realism and, 384; trade expectations theory and, 384, 435
economic containment, 123, 429, 431, 438, 440, 443–44
economic realism: assumptions of, 23; conceptualization of dependence in, 33–34; conceptualization of the future in, 17, 37; core argument of, 2, 14–16, 21–22, 46, 428; costs of adjustment in, 9, 24, 333, 429; costs of expansionism in, 22, 22n11, 429; downplaying of security dilemma in, 8–10, 436; hypothesis testing and, 50; insights of, 6, 14–15, 24, 46, 98, 318, 431–32; neo-Marxism versus, 23; opportunism of, 6–7, 10, 37, 42, 50, 428–29; problem of trade-offs in, 8, 29; quantitative work supporting, 54; vulnerability and, 2, 6, 7–9, 14–16, 21–22, 24, 29, 33, 37, 50; weaknesses of, 6, 8–9, 13, 15–17, 24, 29–30, 34–35, 37, 42, 54, 248, 318, 428–29, 431–32, 438, 444–45; worst-case assumption and, 7, 22, 27, 42; See also offensive realism; relative gains concerns
Eden, Anthony, 282
Egypt, 44, 276–78, 282–88, 307–8, 323, 331–37, 343–44, 351, 362, 374, 387–88, 395–99, 430, 410, 426–27, 430. See also Britain (1878–85, and new imperialism); Nasser, Gamal Abdel; el-Sādāt, Anwar; Suez Canal
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 5, 38, 276–78, 280–301, 303, 441
el-Sādāt, Anwar, 307
endogeneity, 11–12, 39–43, 48–49, 74–75, 429–30. See also crisis escalation; spiraling; trade expectations theory; trade-security dilemma
expectations of future trade, 2–6, 36–38, 40–49, 428–29, 445; contract-intensive economies and, 60–62, 433; democratic regime type and, 43n48, 52, 57–58, 434–35; development and, 58–62, 43n48; exogenous factors and, 39, 43–48, 430–41, 445; importance of expectations when trade is low, 5, 16–17, 35n36, 37–38, 52, 62–63, 66–68, 248, 433; as independent variable, 2, 6, 428–29; institutions and, 62–63, 433–34, 439; polarity and, 30n26, 45, 45n49, 92n37; preferential trading arrangements and, 43n48, 62–63; and problem of the future, 41–43, 440; problem of future intentions and, 40–41, 439–40; trend lines and, 68n20. See also bargaining model of war, bargaining and signaling; costly signaling; reputation; trade expectations theory; trade-security dilemma
Falkenhausen, Alexander von, 133
Fashoda Crisis of 1898, 4, 84, 407, 409–11, 427; British trade expectations and, 410–11; economic realism and, 411, 427; liberalism and, 411; trade expectations theory and, 410–11, 427
Ferry, Jules, 388, 391–94, 392n15
Fischer, Fritz, 123–24, 125, 130–31
France, 4, 15, 29, 76n30, 80–84, 86–87, 98, 102, 105–6, 110, 124, 126–27, 131–34, 160, 177, 179, 182, 250, 260, 264, 269, 276–77, 282, 288, 298, 319, 396–97, 399–400, 402, 405, 407, 410–13, 418, 423, 427, 431, 435; Belgian Crisis (1831), 81, 331n11; British-French competition over Levant trade, 319, 332; Cobden-Chevalier Treaty, 377–78, 378n3, 385; Crimean War and, 348–49, 352, 359–61; intervention in Mexico, 378; intervention in Spain (1823), 80, 327, 373; loans to Russia before First World War, 128n39; war with Austria (1859), 82, 375, 377; wars of the French Revolution, 79–80, 321, 373. See also Napoléon III; Napoléonic Wars; and France, individual case periods
France (1830–40 case period), 94, 332–37; economic realism and, 337, 373; French support for Ali, 335; liberalism and, 337, 373; trade expectations theory and, 337, 373
France (1878–85, and new imperialism), 83, 91n35, 375–76, 387, 389–94; Algeria and, 393; Alsace-Lorraine and, 388, 392; British-French spiral over West Africa, 83, 378, 385, 388, 391, 394n18; declining competitiveness of, 83, 390–91, 394n18; declining economic power of, 390; demographic decline of, 390; domestic politics and, 388, 391–94, 394n18, 397, 398n20; economic realism and, 426; European protectionism and, 390–91; French trade expectations and, 391–92, 394, 399, 426; involvement in Egypt of, 396–99; liberalism and, 394, 426; Madagascar and, 388, 394n18; neo-Marxism and, 392; trade expectations theory and, 394; trade-security spiral and, 391, 426–27; Tunisia and, 392–94, 392n15; Vietnam and, 385, 388, 394n18
Franco-Prussian War (1870), 82, 375, 379–81, 427; preventive origins of, 380–81
Fraser, Edmund, 423
Freycinet, Charles, 393, 397, 398n20
Gambetta, Léon, 397
Gartzke, Erik, 20n6, 24, 63–65, 64n16, 64n17, 64n18
Germany (Prussia), 34, 39, 41, 44–45, 102–3, 105–6, 109–11, 152, 170, 178–79, 181, 187, 198, 250, 258, 378, 390, 427–28, 432, 441; and Cold War, 250, 258–60, 264–66, 269–71, 301–2, 315–17. See also Austro-Prussian War (1866); Franco-Prussian War (1870); and Germany, individual case periods
Germany (1878–85, and new imperialism), 38, 83, 91n36, 93, 93n41, 374–76, 399–407; Berlin Conference and, 400, 402, 406n23; domestic politics and, 388–89, 399–402, 406–7, 406n23; economic realism and, 426; German trade expectations and, 38, 45, 376, 387, 389, 399, 402–7; liberalism and, 426, 432; neo-Marxism and, 388–89; spiral over West Africa, 402–7, 426–27; trade expectations theory and, 38, 426–27
Germany (1890–1914, and World War I), 4–5, 29, 38, 86, 91, 97; Balkans and, 91n36, 123; British-French fears of German growth, 45, 124, 431; and British-German trade treaty, end of, 124–25; domestic politics and, 123–24, 388n13; economic realism and, 97, 133, 142; food dependence and, 127–28; German fears of decline and, 4–5, 97n1, 123, 131, 133; German navy and Weltpolitik, 125–26, 128, 418–19, 419n37; German trade expectations and, 38, 98, 124–28, 130–33, 142, 431; iron and rye coalition and, 124n29; liberalism and, 97–98, 133, 142; Mittelafrika and, 132n47, 423; Morocco and, 126–27, 126n34, 130; oil dependence and, 126–27, 127n37, 133; raw materials dependence and, 126–28, 127n38, 131, 133; trade expectations theory and, 38, 97–98, 123, 133, 142–43
Germany (1919–39, and World War II), 4–5, 38, 87, 97; China and, 139, 139n37; competing explanations for, 133–34; economic realism and, 98, 134, 141, 143; expectations of long war, 141n62; food dependence and, 135, 137–41, 138n54; Four Year Plan and, 137–38; German fears of decline and, 4–5, 97n1, 98, 135, 136n53, 137, 141, 163; German trade expectations and, 98, 136–41, 143; liberalism and, 98, 134–35, 141–43, 428, 432; living space and, 135, 136n52, 141; Nazi ideology and, 14, 141–42, 435; oil dependence and, 138; raw materials dependence and, 135, 137–41, 138n54, 138n55; Romania and, 139; Spain and, 139, 139n58; traditional military and, 136, 141–43
Gladstone, William, 345, 376, 388, 395–99, 400, 404, 423
glory, as motive for war, 6, 80, 82, 95, 109, 112, 172, 321, 338, 346, 376–77, 386, 392, 428
Goddard, Stacie, 379
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 298, 310–17
Gowa, Joanne, 30n26
Graham, John, 345
Gray, Gordon, 295
greed, as motive for war, 22–23, 95, 109, 112, 116, 130, 134, 172, 248, 270–71, 276, 392, 427–28
Grew, Joseph, 175, 177, 194, 202, 204–6, 215–16, 218, 221, 236, 262, 264
Grieco, Joseph, 21, 25, 29n24, 55–58
Haggard, Stephan, 75n29
Halifax, Edward, 209, 218, 235, 238, 240, 242n50
Hamaguchi, Yuko, 154n7
Hamilton, Maxwell, 175, 193, 195–96, 203–4, 206
Hara, Kei, 152
Hara, Yoshimichi, 152, 201, 224, 229–30
Harriman, Averell, 253n11, 259–60, 262, 264, 267, 279
Hashimoto, Toranosuke, 171
Haushofer, Karl, 135
Hegre, Havard, 24, 58–61, 58n10
Higashikumi, Naruhiko, 225
Hildebrand, Klaus, 133
Hillenkoetter, H. N., 279
Hillgruber, Andreas, 133
Hirohito, 145–46, 148, 154n7, 163–64, 170n17, 178–79, 192, 201–2, 207, 218–19, 222–25, 228–30, 245
Hitler, Adolf, 44, 91n36, 134n49, 134–43, 152, 198, 246
Hobshouse, Lord, 343
Hohenlohe, Choldwig von, 125
Hopkins, Anthony, 395
Hopkins, Harry, 199, 221, 260–61, 263, 263n26
Hornbeck, Stanley, 162, 175–77, 191, 204
Hull, Cordell, 6, 145, 176–77, 179–80, 183, 202–6, 208–11, 214n20, 220n25, 222n27, 225, 229, 229n35, 231–32, 237–45, 239n45, 241n48, 242n50, 243n52, 249, 253, 255, 257; and penchant for dissimulation, 217n22, 240n47
Hurley, Patrick, 255
ideological distance, as cause of war, 80, 89, 95, 95n44, 252, 326–27, 373
ideological motives, as cause of war, 6, 34, 95n44, 57, 98, 123, 134, 141, 144–46, 158, 181, 192, 227, 247, 250, 270–71, 276, 321, 338, 346, 373, 376, 386, 389, 395, 399, 427–28, 439–40, 442
Ikawa, Tadao, 189
India, 1, 155, 162, 278–79, 283, 320, 322–23, 332, 334–35, 338–39, 341–42, 344–46, 355, 373, 383–85, 394, 398–99, 405, 415, 426; Indian Ocean, 438, 441
information problems, 12, 21; incomplete information, 39–43. See also bargaining model of war; resolve; signaling arguments; trade-security dilemma
international political economy: balance of payments, 137, 342; balance of trade, 340, 390, 414; causes of trade between great powers, 28–32, 32n29; connection to security studies, vii, 3, 3n5; depletion of resources and, 41, 46, 46n50, 48–49; diminishing marginal returns and, 30; and economies of scale, 30, 41, 103, 357–58, 376–77; and extensive production, 304; and industrialization of the great powers, 30–31, 80, 101–3, 121, 135, 140–41, 163, 278, 295, 317, 322, 326, 328, 347, 349, 351, 355–58, 376, 391, 427, 445; and labor productivity, 30–32; polarity, trade, and, 30, 30n26, 45n49; realist foundations for trade in, 9, 28–32; S-curve, 31; unit-level assumptions of modern, 9
Inukai, Tsuyoshi, 160
Iran (Crisis of 1944), 46, 79, 87, 252–58; Anglo-American oil agreement, 256; Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, 254; decline in US oil reserves and, 254; economic realism and, 257–58; Soviet economic concerns and, 256; Tehran summit, 255; trade expectations theory and, 257; trade-security spiraling and, 257–58; Tudeh Party and, 257; US assistance to Iranian government, 254–55
Iran (Crisis of 1946), 88, 267–68; economic realism and, 268; occupation of Japan and, 266–67; Saudi Arabia and, 268; Soviet-Iran oil agreement, 267–68; Soviet trade expectations and, 268; trade expectations theory and, 268; US motives, 268
Iran (Crisis of 1950–53), 89, 276–82, 288; Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, 276, 278; coup planning and, 280–81; decolonization, implications of, 278; domestic instability and, 277, 279–80; economic realism and, 278, 282; liberalism and, 278, 282; risk of war, 281; trade expectations theory and, 282; US fear of loss of Iran, 277, 279–81; US trade expectations and, 281–82
Iriye, Akira, 153–54, 157, 160
irrationality, as cause of war, 8, 17n1, 34, 122–23, 144–45, 168, 288, 325, 365
Ishihara, Kanji, 164–65, 170–72
Ishii, Kikujiro, 152
isms, question of, 18, 18n2, 433n4
Israel, 277, 282–84, 288, 307–8
Israelyan, Victor, 307
Italy, 128, 131, 138, 140, 250, 258, 264, 344, 390, 414; intervention of Austria in (1821), 4, 80, 327, 373; Italian moves against Tunisia (1880–82), 44–45, 376, 381, 392–94, 426, 430; wars of Italian reunification (1859), 4, 82, 374–75, 377, 381, 427
Ito, Hirobumi, 104–5, 116–17, 151
Japan, 2, 4, 6, 8–10, 14–15, 32, 39, 44, 46, 48, 66, 69, 97, 253, 262–64, 266–67, 272–75, 388, 428, 431–32, 437–39, 441, 443. See also alliances; China; Manchuria; Pacific War; and Japan, individual case periods
Japan (1880–1904). See Russo-Japanese War (1904); Sino-Japanese War (1894)
Japan (1905–22 case period), 85, 145, 150–53; economic realism and, 152, 181–82; intervention into Siberia and, 152; liberalism and, 152; Root-Takahira agreement and, 151; Taisho democracy and, 145, 150, 152, 181; trade-security dilemma and, 137; Twenty-One Demands and, 152; US-Japanese diplomacy and, 150–52; Washington conferences and, 152–53
Japan (1922–31 case period), 85, 93, 95n45, 145, 147–48, 153–62; domestic politics and, 154, 154n7, 157, 432; economic realism and, 158–59, 182; Japanese trade expectations and, 159–60; Kwantung army and, 154, 157–58; liberalism and, 154, 159, 182n24, 432; Manchuria’s value to Japan, 155, 158, 161; puzzles for, 154; Russian threat and, 158–59; Shidehara diplomacy and, 145, 150, 154, 160; trade expectations theory and, 157–58, 182; trade-security dilemma and, 158–59; US-Japanese naval treaty of 1930, 154n7
Japan (1931–37). See Sino-Japanese War (1937)
Japan (1938–41). See Pacific War
Johnston, Alistair Iain, 440n12
Kagan, Korina, 327
Kanin, Kotohiro, 171
Kato, Tomosaburo, 154
Kaufman, Robert, 75n29
Kennan, George, 253n11, 268–69
Kennedy, John F., 38, 291, 301–2
Kennedy, Paul, 401
Keohane, Robert, 19n3, 30n26, 33n32, 37n40
Khrushchev, Nikita, 5, 282–83, 289–305, 443
Kido, Koichi, 225n32
Kimball, Warren, 252
Kirshner, Jonathan, 19
Kissinger, Henry A., 46, 293–94, 304–10, 308n87, 308n88, 431
Knorr, Klaus, 30
Knox, Frank, 237
Komura, Jutaro, 117
Konoe, Fumimaro, 171, 174, 176–77, 180, 189, 200, 205–7, 212–13, 215, 219, 222, 224–25
Korean War, 88, 271–76; Acheson’s speech and, 272–74, 273n39, 274n41; congressional aid to South Korea, 275; and economic realism, 278, 288; increasing US support for South Korea, 275–76; liberalism and, 271, 276, 428, 432; origins of, 275–76, 435; Soviet defensive motives and, 273–76; trade expectations theory and, 271, 276; US-Japanese relations and, 272–74, 273n38. See also Kim Il Sung; Mao Ze-dong; Stalin, Joseph
Kosygin, Alexei, 305
Krasner, Stephen, 23n15, 26n20
Kuomintang Party, 147–49, 154–59, 171–74, 179, 187, 258; struggle with Chinese Communist Party, 155–57, 159, 162–63, 167, 169. See also Chiang Kai-shek; China; Mao Ze-dong
Kuropatkin, Alexsei, 109–10, 114–15, 121
Kusserow, Heinrich von, 402–3, 405
Kydd, Andrew, 42n46
Lake, David A., 18n2
Lamsdorf, Vladimir, 109, 114–15, 121
Lansing, Robert, 152
Latin America, 127, 139, 195, 283, 327, 444, 440n12
Leffler, Melvyn, 248n3, 249, 269
Lenin, Vladimir I., 22, 312, 385
leveraging, 9, 11, 27, 29, 32, 42, 159, 180, 186, 148, 159, 180, 186, 191, 257, 267–69, 296, 304, 315, 386, 422, 438, 439, 441. See also bargaining model of war; coercive diplomacy, use of; diplomacy, role of; signaling arguments
Levitsky, Steven, 75n29
Li, Quan, 64n16
liberalism (commercial): assumptions of, 6–7, 9, 428; conceptualization of dependence, 33–34; conceptualization of the future in, 17, 37; core argument of, 1–2, 13–14, 16, 18–21, 428; democracy and, 25, 52, 54–67, 100, 145, 152, 154, 181, 269, 310, 345–47, 349, 411, 427, 433–35; domestic variables as propelling factors for war in, 7, 14, 16, 17n1, 34, 50, 52, 135, 144–45, 159, 184, 186, 244, 270–71, 276, 325, 346, 349, 378, 392, 395, 426–29, 432, 435–36, 445–46; downplaying of costs of adjustment in, 33–34; hypothesis testing and, 50; insights of, 2, 24, 27, 428; institutions and, 43n48, 62–63, 433–34; interest groups and, 19–20, 20n5; opportunity costs and, 18–21, 25, 33–34, 429; signaling arguments in, 20–21, 20n6, 64n16. See also democracy, as cause of war or peace; democratic peace; and individual cases
liberalism (regulatory). See liberalism (commercial), institutions and; Keohane, Robert
linkage, 46, 260, 293–94, 299, 304–5, 310, 431. See also Cold War (1956–62); Cold War (1963–83, détente and aftermath); Kissinger, Henry A.
Lovett, Robert, 280
Macaulay, Thomas, 343
MacMillan, Harold, 296
Mahan, Alfred Thayer, 253, 409n26, 419n37
Mahoney, James, 75n29
Manchuria, 4, 99–101, 103, 107–22, 142, 145, 147–79, 182, 187, 189–93, 195, 202, 214n20, 216, 220, 225, 229, 231–36, 252, 258, 266, 431–32; Japanese Kwantung Army, 154, 157–58, 235–36
Mansfield, Edward D., 19n3, 25, 30n26, 62
Mao, Ze-dong, 32, 167–69, 272–75
Marchand, Jean Baptiste, 409
Marshall, George, 231, 233, 237, 237n42, 237n43, 242n49, 251, 259
Marshall Plan, 251, 259, 266, 268–69
Mason, Tim, 134
Mastanduno, Michael, 271
Matsuoka, Yosuke, 189, 192, 194, 197, 198n9, 199–200, 203, 205–7, 215
McCloy, John, 259
McDonald, Patrick, 20, 24, 58, 63–69, 66n19, 408, 433
Mearsheimer, John, 21–22, 22n11, 387
Melbourne, Lord, 336
Menzies, Robert, 287
mercantilism, 20, 22, 31, 31n28; British discussions on return to (1890–1914), 124–25, 128–29, 129n42, 133, 412–14; British eighteenth-century, 322–23; British-French eighteenth-century economic struggle and, 321–22; colonies and, 31, 44; neomercantilism and Cold War, 250, 252, 269; French nineteenth-century neomercantilism, 391. See also international political economy
Mexico: French intervention in, 378; Mexican-American War of 1846–48, 93n42
Middle East, 5, 46, 62–63, 126–27, 133, 143, 251–58, 267–69, 276–89, 307–8, 319, 333, 337, 346, 384, 438–41. See also Saudi Arabia; Suez Crisis (1956); and Iran, individual case periods
Miles, Sherman, 233n39
military-security dilemma, 9–10
Millspaugh, Arthur, 255
Milner, Alfred, 419, 421, 424–25
Molotov, Vyacheslav, 259–60, 265, 267, 272–74
monarchialism, versus republicanism, 80, 95, 321, 326–27, 373, 392
Montesquieu, Baron, 19n3
Moravcsik, Andrew, 19n3
Morgenthau, Henry, 175, 239, 240n46, 242, 242n50, 243, 243n51, 258
Muraviev, Mikhail, 108
Mutsu, Munemitsu, 105
Nagano, Osami, 201, 219, 223, 226–27, 230
Napoléon III, 82, 348–49, 359–60, 362, 377–78, 380, 385
Napoléonic Wars, 4, 79–80, 91, 321–26; Continental System in, 324; economic realism and, 325; French commitment problem, 325–26; French decline versus Britain, 321–22, 325–26; French trade expectations and, 322, 324–25, 373; Haiti and, 322–23; liberalism and, 325; Louisiana and, 322–23; Napoléon’s geopolitical logic and, 321; Napoléon’s personal motives and, 321, 324, 324n6; plans for invasion of Britain, 323–24; trade expectations theory and, 325–26, 373; trade-security spirals and, 325
Narizny, Kevin, 23n14
Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 277–78, 282–88
neoclassical realism, 9n9, 248n3. See also domestic support, as facilitating factor for war; economic realism; liberalism (commercial)
neo-Marxism, 14; core arguments of, 22–23; new imperialism and, 385–86, 395–96; Opium War and, 338–47; South African War and, 426; structural Marxism, 23n15; weaknesses of, 26–27, 93n41, 376, 426. See also capitalism
neorealism, 7–8, 248, 386; international political economy and, 29–30; salience of power versus interdependence, 22n11, 28–29, 247–48. See also economic realism; offensive realism; trade expectations theory
Nesselrode, Karl, 334, 336, 353–54, 359, 362n34, 365–66
Nicholas I, 102, 328–30, 333, 336, 349–54, 357–72, 383
Nish, Ian, 113n17
Nixon, Richard M., 46, 294, 304–10, 431
Nomura, Kichisaburo, 189–90, 192–95, 203–4, 206, 211–16, 214n20, 220n25, 222n27, 225, 225n31, 236–37
Nye, Joseph, 33n32
offensive-defensive balance, 27n22, 36n39, 75
offensive realism, 7–8, 14, 430, 436; costs of expansionism, 22n11, 429; downplaying of trade-offs, 7, 29, 42; future intentions, role of, 7, 22, 41, 43; insights of, 14–15, 42–43, 436; pessimism of, 7–8; relative gains and, 8–9, 29; vulnerability and, 7–8, 14–15, 29; weaknesses of, 7–10, 29, 42, 389, 436; worst-case assumption of, 7, 22, 42–43. See also anarchy; neorealism; trade expectations theory
Oikawa, Kojiro, 166
oil dependence, 4, 21, 29, 31–32, 35, 39, 46, 126–27, 137–39, 158, 178, 180, 186–91, 197, 200, 202, 207–13, 217–19, 222–23, 226, 229, 231, 234, 237, 242–45, 250, 252–57, 267–68, 276–88, 290, 294–95, 306, 437–41. See also international political economy; resources, vital
Olney, Richard, 409
Oneal, John, 19, 24, 33n32, 54–56
Opium War (1839–41), 4, 81, 93n41, 319–20, 337–47, 355, 388, 435; Britain’s silver problem and, 338–40, 246; British fears of decline and, 339, 347; China’s silver problem and, 340–41, 346; Chinese fears of decline and, 339, 346; domestic politics and, 344–45; economic realism and, 338–39, 346, 372–73; importance of China to running of British government, 339, 341, 345–46; liberalism and, 338, 346–47, 372; merchants and, 340, 342–44, 344n24; neo-Marxism and, 338, 343–44, 347, 373; trade expectations theory and, 338–39, 346–47, 372–73; triangular trade and, 338, 341–42. See also China; India; neo-Marxism
Oregon Crisis (1844–45), 69n21
Otori, Keisuke, 105
Ottoman Empire. See Turkey
Owen, John, 19n3
Oyama, Iwao, 117
Pacific War, 4, 44, 86; backdoor-to-war argument, 232, 232n37, 236, 245; China’s role in pinning down Japanese forces, 185, 191, 204, 220, 233–34; Chinese-connection argument, 238–41; competing explanations of, 144–45, 184–85, 244–45; domestic politics and, 145, 179, 206–7, 227–28, 244, 388n13, 435; Dutch East Indies and Japan, 178–80, 182, 188, 200–201, 203, 222, 208, 244; economic realism and, 146, 186–87, 244; Imperial Conferences and, 201–202, 222–24, 228–30; Indochina and, 179–80, 201, 207, 211–12, 214–15, 228–29, 237, 239; issue of troops in northern China, 187, 189, 193–97, 215, 228; Japanese alliance with Germany, 178, 181, 192, 199–200, 203, 215–16, 228–29; Japanese army and, 146, 163–67, 178–81, 192, 200, 206–7, 213, 221, 227–28; Japanese concern for rise of Russia, 148, 164–65, 181–83, 185, 202, 223, 225, 244–45; Japanese concern for Soviet Communism, 176, 178, 193–96, 201; Japanese decline versus United States, 180–81, 213, 219, 222–24, 226–27, 229–30, 236, 245; Japanese dependence on United States, 173–81, 178, 180, 188, 213, 217, 222; Japanese desire for a summit, 212–15; Japanese desire to end Sino-Japanese War, 188–89, 191–92, 196–98, 199–200, 215–16, 221, 228, 228n34, 230, 224; Japanese navy and, 146, 178–81, 188n3, 192, 200, 206–7, 213, 225; Japanese pessimism regarding chances of victory, 144, 184, 219, 223–24, 230; Japanese reaction to imperial preference systems, 48, 159–60; Japanese-Russian clashes (1938–39), 174, 178, 189; Japanese temporary military superiority, 144, 230, 237–44; Japanese trade expectations and, 176–77, 182, 186, 213, 217, 220, 222, 229, 245–46; Japanese uncertainty regarding future intentions of the United States, 226–27; Liaison Conferences, 199–200, 218–19, 225–28, 228n34; liberalism and, 145–46, 149n4, 184–86, 244–45, 428, 432; New Order speech, 176–77, 189; Proposal A, 228, 230; Proposal B (modus vivendi), 228–30, 233, 237–44; puzzles of, 144–45, 184–85, 187; Southeast Asia’s raw materials and Japanese security, 176, 179, 181–82, 188, 211, 213, 217; trade expectations theory and, 146, 149–50, 182–83; US acceptance of Manchuria, 190, 193; US desire to buy time, 220, 231, 233, 237, 237n42; US desire for modus vivendi, 233, 236–44; US desire for summit, 213–14; US efforts to get Japan to ignore Tripartite Pact, 185, 190, 194, 197–98, 197n8, 215–16, 228–31; US efforts to get Japan to not attack Russia, 185, 190–91, 202–6, 208–9, 211–14, 218, 220–22, 231–36, 241–44; US fear of fall of Moscow, 241–43, 242n49, 243n51; US importance attached to Russia as ally against Hitler, 185–86, 198–99, 241–43, 244–46; US-Japanese near-agreements (1941), 197–98, 198n9, 214–15; US oil embargo (1941), 186, 207–211, 217; US preference orderings (1941), 232–33, 236, 244; US recognition of Japan’s likely attack on Russia, 187, 202–5, 205n13, 206n14, 211–12, 234–36, 242–43, 242n49, 243n51; US trade expectations and, 175, 198, 215–16; US trade restrictions and 177, 180, 185–86, 188, 207–11, 217, 219, 222, 224, 245. See also alliances; Chiang Kai-shek; Hull, Cordell; Roosevelt, Franklin D.; United States
Palmerston, Lord, 333–36, 338, 342–47, 344n24, 349–50, 355–57, 369–71, 371n39, 373, 395
Peck, Willys, 204
personality, as cause of war, 80, 82, 87, 95, 141, 321, 349
Philippines, 151, 233, 237, 240, 244n54, 272–73
Plehve, Vyacheslav, 114
polarity, implications of, 30, 30n26, 45n49, 123, 246, 441
Portugal, 340, 344, 399, 403, 405, 415, 417, 420–23
Powell, Robert, 41
Power, Thomas, 393
preferential trading arrangements (PTAs), 43n48, 62–63
preventive war, 2–5, 7, 62, 98–99, 123, 131, 142, 148, 172, 182, 185, 224, 282, 303, 326, 380–81, 382, 426. See also decline, individual cases
problem of the future, 41–43, 440. See also dynamic approaches to theory; expectations of future trade
Prussia. See Germany (Prussia)
Puryear, Vernon John, 335, 355n30, 358
qualitative analysis: accumulation of knowledge via, 94–96; causal salience and, vii, 28, 50–51, 71, 78, 92n38, 245, 247, 271, 276, 318, 321, 332, 375, 427, 435, 445; complex conjunctural causality and, 71–74, 77–78, 78n34; constraining factors in, 73; criteria for case periods and, 79, 91; documentary process tracing, 13, 74–75, 77n33; endogeneity problem in, 74–75; equifinality (multiple causal pathways) and, 71n25, 77; and essential universe of cases, use of, 2–3, 70, 76–77, 78; facilitating factors in, 73; frequency of a theory’s success as criterion in, 71, 77–78, 78n34; functional role of independent variables in, 72–74, 78, 93; generalizability problem and, 53, 70–71, 75; and hard periods, use of, 76, 96; INJS, 71; interactive variables in, 72, 72n26; INUS, 71n25; lagged variables and, 75n28; middle-N in, 75n29; omitted variables and, 75n28; propelling factors in, 73, 93; rare events research in, 52–53, 71–78; reinforcing factors in, 73; selection bias and, 3, 53, 70–71, 75; sudden unexplained death and, 78n34; testing for noncommercial variables using, vii, 94–95. See also quantitative (large-N) methods
quantitative (large-N) methods, vii, 51–69; application of to interdependence question, 24–25; capitalism and, 1, 20, 24, 63–69, 64n18, 433; control variables and, 53–54, 77; lagged variables and, 75n28; limitations of, 13, 50, 69–70, 72, 74, 75n28; implications of for democratic peace, 52, 55–65; interactive variables and, 54–55, 72, 72n26; omitted variables and, 75n28; value of, 1, 49, 51–52; preferential trading arrangements and, 62–63. See also qualitative analysis
Randall, Clarence, 295, 296n66
Razmara, Ali, 279
realism, general position of, 6, 21–22, 27. See also anarchy; defensive realism; economic realism; neoclassical realism; neorealism; offensive realism
relative gains concerns, 8–9, 11, 29, 39–40, 42–43, 45, 304. See also neorealism; offensive realism
reputation, 9, 12, 43, 81–83, 210, 277, 308, 348, 410, 445
resolve, 12, 16, 20n6, 21, 25, 40–41, 63–64, 64n16, 81, 84, 110, 397. See also bargaining model of war; costly signaling; signaling arguments
resources, vital, 1–2, 4, 6–8, 10, 12–13, 21–22, 29, 31, 35, 38–39, 41, 46–49, 57, 62, 69, 87, 97–99, 101–3, 110, 122–23, 125–27, 130–42, 146, 148–50, 152, 158, 160–63, 167–68, 174–77, 179–83, 186–88, 191, 198, 200, 207, 211–13, 219–29, 232, 245, 248–49, 251, 253–54, 269, 278, 292, 294, 311, 318, 322–25, 335, 354, 376, 386–87, 403, 407–9, 412–13, 426–28, 430, 432, 435–36, 437–40, 444–45. See also economic realism; international political economy; oil dependence; trade expectations theory
Reston, James, 272
Rhodes, Cecil, 416
Richardson, James, 347
Romania, 250, 261, 266n30, 355
Roosevelt, Franklin D., 5, 44, 46, 175, 177, 179–80, 183, 185–99, 202, 207–22, 208n17, 217n22, 225, 229–46, 240n46, 242n50, 243n51, 243n52, 251–59, 265, 268, 278, 324n6
Roosevelt, Theodore, 150–51, 161, 190, 280
Root, Elihu, 151
Root-Takahira agreement, 151
Rose, Hugh, 356
Rosecrance, Richard, 19n3, 33–34, 37n40, 64n18
Rusk, Dean, 302
Russell, Lord, 363–64, 369, 371
Russett, Bruce, 19, 24, 33n32, 54–56
Russia, 1, 5, 14–15, 29, 44, 80–83, 85–90, 324, 327; Balkans and, 44, 123, 351–52, 354, 359–61, 383; Black Sea grain exports of, 319, 327–28; commercial access through Korean Straits for, 100, 110, 116, 118–19, 121; commercial access through Turkish Straits and, 44, 82, 109, 319, 328–34, 336, 348, 350, 352–59, 361–62, 372–73, 383, 393; economic growth of, in nineteenth century, 102–4; economic needs of (1944–45), 248, 250, 258, 260–64; and ice-free port, importance of, 100, 107, 348; Iran and, 250, 254–58; and Japan, relations with (1890–1904), 97, 99–101, 106–22; and Japan, relations with (1905–22), 94, 137, 150–51; and Japan, relations with (1922–41), 147–50, 159–89, 198–239, 241–46; oil needs of (1944–46), 250, 256–57; and reparations, need for (1945), 250, 258, 265; Russian-British cooperation (1825–52), 320, 328, 332, 336, 352–54, 362–63; Russo-Turkish wars, 328–30, 383–84; trade expansion of (1815–53), 319, 327–28, 335; and Turkey, Russian desire to sustain (1826–53), 329–30, 333, 336, 348, 350–55, 358–68, 373; US trade and aid to, 5, 9, 29–30, 32, 38, 45, 90, 247–51, 258–65, 270–71, 276, 289–318; Vladivostok and, 103, 107–9, 121, 204, 235. See also Crimean War; linkage; Manchuria; third world, US-Soviet struggle over the; and Cold War, individual case periods; and Russia, individual case periods
Russia (1823–30 case period), 80, 327–31, 373
Russia (1830–40 case period), 4, 81, 93, 331–37; liberalism and, 336–37, 373, 432; trade expectations theory and, 336–37, 373
Russo-Japanese War (1904), 4, 14, 85, 91, 97, 99–122; economic realism and, 97, 101, 122; Japanese domestic politics and, 100; liberalism and, 97, 100, 122; neo-Marxism and, 122; Niuchuang and, 111–12, 120; open door and, 108, 110–11, 150; Russian domestic politics and, 14, 100, 109, 112–16, 431; Russian rising power and, 103, 107–9; Russian strategic concerns and, 100–101, 103–4, 107–10, 113–16, 118–22; trade expectations theory and, 97–99, 101, 122; trade-security dilemma and, 101, 122
Salisbury, Lord, 385, 408, 411–12, 416–17, 425
Samuels, Richard, 102
Saudi Arabia, 254–55, 268, 276, 278, 281
Schmidt, Max, 203
Schmoller, Gustav, 130
Schumpeter, Joseph, 386
Schweller, Randall, 30n26
security dilemma. See anarchy; military-security dilemma; spiraling; trade-security dilemma; trust and mistrust
Shevardnadze, Edvard, 315
Shidehara, Kijuro, 150, 153, 154–57, 159–60
Shidehara diplomacy, 145, 150, 154
Shimada, Shigetaro, 227
signaling arguments, 16, 20–21, 20n6; critique of, 25, 25n18, 64n16. See also bargaining model of war; coercive diplomacy, use of; costly signaling; diplomacy, role of; information problems; trade expectations theory
Sino-American relations, contemporary, 1, 8, 13, 32, 436–37; Africa and, 440–41; China’s hedging strategy, 440–41; China’s increasing oil dependence, 437–39, 441; China’s recent growth, 32, 436–37; China’s signaling of good intentions, 439–40; Chinese navy, 438, 441; Chinese trade expectations, 442–44; dual standards of US analysts, 440n12; East China Sea and, 440n12; Malacca problem and, 438, 441; Middle East oil and, 440–41; mutual recognition of trade-security dilemma, 438–43; nuclear weapons, role of, 440n11; potential for trade-security spiral in, 444; prerequisites of sustained Chinese growth, 437n6; reasons for caution regarding, 443–44; reasons for optimism regarding, 442–43; and symmetry of dependence, importance of, 35n35, 439; South China Sea and, 440n12; Taiwan and, 432, 437–38, 444; twenty-four-character speech of Deng Xiao-ping and, 439; US concern for China’s future intentions and, 440; US decline and, 436–37, 440; US moderation, reasons for, 442–43; Western allies and, 443. See also Korean War; oil dependence
Sino-Japanese War (1894), 85, 98–99, 104–6; economic realism and, 15, 98–99, 106, 122, 122n24, 427; trade expectations theory and, 98, 106; Treaty of Shimonoseki, 106–7; Triple Intervention and, 106. See also Korean War; Russia
Sino-Japanese War (1937), 86, 94, 95n45, 122n24, 148–49, 162–73; Chiang Kai-shek, role of, 168–73; Chinese domestic politics and, 168–69; competing explanations, 168; diversionary origins of, 168–71, 95n45, 388, 432n2; economic realism and, 173; Japanese desire for peace, 170–72; Japanese domestic politics and, 163–65; Japanese focus on preventive war against Russia, 163–67; Japanese navy and, 164–67; and Japan’s relationship with the United States, 166–67; liberalism and, 172–73; National Salvation Association, 169; puzzle of, 168; and Russia’s rising power, 163–64, 172; Sino-Japanese truces, 162, 167, 169–70; trade expectations theory and, 173; Xian Incident, 169. See also Chiang Kai-shek; Russia
small states, 11, 31, 44, 48, 430; method of study of, vii, 3, 3n3, 76
Smith, Walter, 270
Smith, Woodruff, 126
Smoke, Richard, 347
Smoot-Hawley tariffs, 46, 137, 147, 159. See also Germany (Prussia); Japan; United States
Smuts, Jan, 423
Snyder, Jack, 164, 179, 223n28, 244, 347, 349, 349n26, 369
Song, Zhe-yuan, 170
Soong, T. V., 239, 240n46, 242n50
South African (Boer) War, 4, 44, 84, 124, 374, 377, 407–9, 411–27, 435; British fear of decline and, 412–14, 419–20, 423, 425–26; British financial dominance and, 413; British trade expectations and, 377, 407, 413, 415–16, 425–26; Delagoa Bay and, 415–17, 420–23; Drifts Crisis, 416–17; economic realism and, 426; expected costs of war, 419; German economic competitiveness and, 412–14, 414n32; German trade expectations, 417; importance of South Africa to British economy, 413, 415; Jameson Raid, 412, 416–19; Kruger telegram, 418; liberalism and, 426; neo-Marxism and, 426; threat of Transvaal-controlled Republic of South Africa, 412, 415, 420, 423, 425; trade expectations theory and, 407, 426–27; and Transvaal, increasing power of, 411–13, 415–16; uitlanders, issue of, 416, 419–25; and Weltpolitik, link to, 418–19, 419n37. See also Chamberlain, Joseph; Venezuela Crisis (1895)
Soviet Union. See Russia
Spain, 322–23, 380; French intervention in (1823), 4, 80, 327, 373; Spanish-American War of 1898, 93n42
spheres of influence, 80, 99, 115, 118, 126, 153, 248, 253, 256, 334, 431
spiraling, 3, 5, 9–12, 21, 42–49, 57, 101, 122, 147, 150–51, 158, 162, 176, 182, 232, 244, 248, 251–52, 256, 258, 261, 282, 300, 317, 325, 330, 347, 350, 370, 376, 387, 391, 418, 429–30, 436, 438, 440, 442–45. See also crisis escalation; military-security dilemma; trade-security dilemma; trade expectations theory
spiral model, 370
Stalin, Joseph, 163, 169, 173, 178, 185–87, 198–99, 218, 221, 242, 251–52, 255–58, 258n17, 260–61, 263–67, 263n26, 271–76, 282, 439
Stark, Harold, 205n13, 231, 233, 235, 237, 237n42
Stimson, Henry, 220–21, 231, 235, 237–38, 243n52, 259, 262, 264–65
Strauss, Lewis, 295
Stresemann, Gustav, 130
Suez Canal, 276, 282–88, 383, 394, 396–98
Suez Crisis (1956), 89, 276–78, 282–88; economic realism and, 278, 288; liberalism and, 278, 288; Suez Canal Company and, 276; third world competition and, 283–84, 289–90; trade expectations theory and, 288; US fear of decline and, 284, 288; US trade expectations and, 285–88
Sugiyama, Hajime, 171, 200, 202, 219–20, 223, 225, 227. 229–30
Sun, Yat-sen, 155
Suzuki, Teiichi, 224, 226, 229
systemic versus unit-level causes of war, vii, 12, 13–16, 27, 34, 43, 45, 50, 95n43, 122–23, 375–76, 385–86, 427, 429, 432–36, 445–46; unit level, definition of, 7. See also authoritarianism; democracy, as cause of war or peace; democratic peace; democratization, as cause of war; diversionary motives, as cause of war; expectations of future trade; ideological distance, as cause of war; ideological motives, as cause of war; irrationality, as cause of war; liberalism (commercial); trade expectations theory
Takahira, Kogoro, 151
Talleyrand, Charles Maurice de, 324
third parties, importance of, 42, 44–46, 48–49, 261, 376, 430–31, 443–45. See also individual cases
third world, US-Soviet struggle over the, 278, 283–84, 289–90, 305–6, 309–10, 431. See also India; Korean War; Middle East; and Iran, individual case periods
Toyoda, Teijiro, 207, 215–16, 221
Trachtenberg, Marc, 231n36, 248n3
trade expectations. See expectations of future trade
trade expectations theory: added value of, 2–3, 15–17, 93–94, 428–32; alternative trade partners and, 36n37; arms spending and, 10, 436; assumptions of, 6–7, 14, 17n1, 23, 27–28, 27n22, 28n23, 43, 429; authoritarianism and, 55–58, 432–33, 435; capitalism and, 63–69; character type and, 10, 39–40, 42–43, 48; commitment problem and, 12–13, 40–43, 47, 62; conceptualization of dependence in, 35–36; core argument of, 2, 16–17, 27–28, 36–38, 47–49, 444–45; costs of adjustment and, 35, 47, 429; democratic peace and, 43n48, 52, 57–58, 433–35; dependent variable of, 3, 3n2, 77; development and, 58–62; discount factors and, 36n38; domestic-level variables and, 7, 27, 28n23, 43–46, 46n51; endogeneity and, 11–12, 39–43, 48–49, 74–75, 317, 429–30; expected value of conflict and, 36, 36n39; feedback loops and, 39–43, 48–49, 294, 429; hypothesis testing of, 50; neo-Marxism versus, 23; offensive realist baseline and, 42–43, 436, 445; opportunity costs and, 429; political economic foundations of, 28–32; potential weaknesses of, 270–71, 276, 318; problem of the future and, 41–43, 440; puzzle of ongoing moderate behavior and, 12, 29, 40–41, 43, 430; quantitative findings and, 3, 55–69, 92–93, 431–32, 432n3; rational expectations theory and, 17n1; realist foundations of, 6–7, 27–28, 47, 445; rejection of neorealist pessimism, 9–10, 29–32; rejection of offensive realism’s worst-case assumption, 7–8, 42–43; reputation and, 9, 12, 42–43, 39–40, 445; research agenda of, 445–46; signaling and, 5, 10, 39–43, 48, 63, 124, 175, 190, 208, 210–11, 215, 299, 305, 313, 317, 366, 434; spiraling and, 3, 5, 9–12, 42–47, 57, 370, 429, 436; symmetry of dependence and, 35, 35n35, 41n43, 45n49; third parties and, 42, 44–46, 48–49, 261, 376, 430–31, 443–45; trade-offs and, 8–11, 29, 32, 39–40, 42–43, 439; vulnerability and, 28, 32–33, 37; unit-level characteristics of “other” and, 28n23, 45, 46n51, 48–49, 95, 95n43, 435–36, 445–46. See also bargaining model of war; diplomacy, role of; dynamic approaches to theory; expectations of future trade; problem of the future; spiraling; systemic versus unit-level causes of war; trade-security dilemma
trade-offs, 8–11, 28–29, 32, 42–43, 439; relative gains versus vulnerability, 9, 29, 32; relative loss versus leverage, 9, 11, 29; reputation for reasonableness versus relative power, 9–11, 39–40, 430. See also offensive realism; trade expectations theory; trade-security dilemma
trade-security dilemma, 10–12, 39–40, 45–46, 48–49, 147, 176, 429–30, 436, 445; awareness of trade-security dilemma and moderation of behavior, 10–12, 38, 40–41, 43, 48, 430, 436, 438–42; causes of intense, 10–11, 40–42; endogeneity and, 11–12, 42–43, 429–30; nature of, 10–12, 39–43, 445; puzzle of why cooperation breaks down, 12–13, 43–47, 430; reputation and, 9, 12, 39–40, 42–43, 445; spiraling within, 3, 5, 10–11, 42–43, 45–49, 57, 101, 122, 147, 158, 176, 182, 244, 251–52, 256, 258, 317, 330, 350, 376, 387, 391, 418, 429–30, 436, 438, 440, 442–45; third parties and, 43–44, 430–31, 443–45. See also coercive diplomacy, use of; crisis escalation; diplomacy, role of; expectations of future trade; military-security dilemma; spiraling; trade expectations theory
Truman, Harry S., 5, 251–52, 258n17, 259–66, 268–75, 277, 279–82; liking of Stalin, 251
trust and mistrust, 9, 212, 42, 47, 57, 60, 62–63, 100–101, 106, 114, 120–22, 147, 194, 223, 249, 289–90, 298–300, 310, 313, 326, 347, 370, 391, 399, 418, 426, 429, 436, 445; definition of, 42n46. See also anarchy; commitment problem
Tsukada, Osamu, 227
Turkey, 44, 127, 268, 319, 327–37, 343, 348–74, 383–84, 392, 395–97, 430, 435, 440; Turkish decline, 319, 332–37, 352; Turkish Straits, 44, 82, 109, 319, 328–31, 334, 348, 352–53
Tyrtov, Pyotr, 108
Ugaki, Kazunari, 174
United States: Congress of, 46, 177, 180, 205, 221, 250, 260, 266, 275, 284, 298, 308–9, 316, 408, 431; dollar diplomacy, 152; fear of decline (1945), 249–53, 259–266; high tariffs of, in 1930s, 46, 137–38, 147, 159–60, 166; Hitler’s expansionism and, 185–86, 192, 198–99, 202–5, 211–12, 231–34, 234n40; lend lease, 199, 204, 221, 235, 242, 249–50, 254, 261–64, 270, 296, 299; Magic, 199, 202, 205, 209, 218–19, 237; Marshall Plan, 251, 259, 266, 268–69; Mexican-American War (1846), 93n42; naval bills (1940), 180; open door and, 101–2, 108, 150–52, 176–77, 179, 190–91, 196n7, 215–16, 221, 228, 439; Spanish-American War (1898), 93n42; War of 1812, 93n42. See also Korean War; Pacific War; Sino-American relations, contemporary; and Cold War, individual case periods; and individual presidents unit-level factors. See systemic versus unit-level causes of war
Venezuela Crisis (1895), 4, 69n21, 84, 407–9, 427, 435; economic importance of Orinoco River, 407–8, 408n24; economic realism and, 408–9, 428; liberalism and, 409, 409n26; neo-Marxism and, 409n26; role of South African crisis in, 408–9, 409n25; trade expectations theory and, 409, 435; US trade expectations and, 408–9, 409n25. See also South African (Boer) War
von Stein, Jana, 64n16
Waltz, Kenneth, 21–22, 31–32, 387
“War in Sight” Crisis (1875), 382–83
Way, Lucan, 75n29
Welles, Sumner, 199, 204–5, 205n13, 210–11
White, John Albert, 114
Wilson, Woodrow, 145, 151–53, 249, 252–53
Witte, Sergei, 103, 107, 111, 113–14, 121n23
Woermann, Adolf, 403
World War I. See Germany (1890–1914, and World War I)
World War II. See Germany (1919–39, and World War II)
Yalta Conference, 257–60, 265–66
Yuan, Shi-kai, 155
Zhang, Xue-liang (“Young Marshall”), 158–60, 169
Zhang Zuo-lin (“Old Marshall”), 156–58
Zhou, En-lai, 169