Note: Page numbers followed by “f” or “t” indicate figures and tables, respectively.
2012 presidential election: advertising in, 99, 109–11, 110f, 122–31, 124f, 167–68, 169f, 170–71, 175, 192–3, 205, 207, 218–21, 223, 240, 251–54, 256–58, 271–72; conventions for, 142–48; debates in, 142, 155–64; decisive factors in, 1–2, 6–7, 174–225; economy as factor in, 3, 8, 9, 11, 14, 19, 30–31, 35, 97–98, 100–101, 109–15, 134–36, 259–60; external events’ impact on, 148–50, 165–67; final months of, 141–73; forecasts and indicators during, 27–31, 98–102, 104, 105t, 140, 141, 171–72, 177, 248; 47% video’s effect on, 150–55, 158, 175; fundamentals of, 13, 27–29, 101, 140, 145, 175, 177–89; jobs and unemployment as factors in, 107, 109–11; overview of, 8–9; partisanship in, 8–9, 98, 102–5, 180–82, 181t; polls in, 120f, 142, 146, 147f, 152–53, 157–58, 160–61, 163, 165–67, 172–73, 178; post-election assessments of, 189, 212, 224, 226; results of, 173; stability in, 3, 8–9, 104–5, 105t, 119–20, 120f, 128, 129, 138–41, 142, 147, 161–62, 173, 188–89; undecided voters in, 105–7, 121, 158. See also 2012 Republican primary season; 2012 summer campaigns; issues in 2012 election
2012 Republican primary season, 3, 7–8, 32–96; Cain in, 49–51; candidates’ decisions concerning, 35–37; delegates in, 68f; dynamic of, 33, 98; endorsements during, 37–40, 57–58, 57f, 67, 70, 84, 85–86, 95; fundamentals of, 33; Gingrich in, 51–54, 66–67, 72–82; ideology in, 58–59, 60f, 61–63, 62f, 66–67, 87–92, 88f, 90f, 93f; lack of party enthusiasm about, 34–35, 38, 41, 54–55, 94; media coverage of, 41–86; Perry in, 46–50; public opinion in, 59f; Romney’s status in, 32, 33, 37, 54–63, 65–68, 70–72, 76–81, 84–85; Santorum in, 64–72, 80–86; schedule of, 67, 96; supposed incomprehensibility of, 33, 40–41; volatility of, 33, 45–54
2012 summer campaigns, 97–140; anti-Romney advertising in, 122–31; dynamics of, 99, 138–41; economy and jobs as issue in, 107–15; effects of, 138–41; forecasts and indicators during, 98–102, 140; gaffes in, 115–22; partisanship during, 102–5; Romney’s running mate selection, 131–38; and undecided voters, 105–7
abortion, 193–96, 194f, 260–63
Abramowitz, Alan, 289n90
ACA. See Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
acceptability, of candidates, 38–39, 61
Adelson, Sheldon, 78
Aderholt, Robert, 84
advertising: in 2012 Republican primary season, 76–79, 76f, 82, 84; during conventions, 168; costs of, 168, 170; effects of, 3, 9, 78–79, 128–31, 129f, 167, 170, 171f, 175, 218–21, 223, 240, 251–54, 256–58, 271–72; GRPs for, 128, 129f; by Obama, 99, 109–10, 110f, 122–31, 124f, 167–68, 169f, 170–71, 173, 192–93, 218–21, 256–58, 271–72; by Romney, 76–78, 84, 109–11, 110f, 123–24, 124f, 128–31, 167–68, 169f, 170–71, 173, 205, 207, 219–21, 223, 256–58, 271–72; as stimulus for media coverage, 124–25; targeting of, 168; timing of, 167, 219–20
Affordable Care Act. See Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
African Americans, 235
Akin, Todd, 193, 194, 197, 242
Alaska, 85
Allen, Mike, 147
Americans for Prosperity, 128
Arizona primary, 83
Asians, voting behavior of, 197, 313n49
Aurora, Colorado mass shooting, 125, 297n91
average voters, ideology of, 61, 89, 203–4, 204f, 230
Ayotte, Kelly, 132
Bachmann, Michele, 34, 40, 61, 62, 63, 70, 91, 279n46
bailouts, 17
Bain Capital, 9, 72, 74, 114, 117, 122–28, 125f, 139, 212, 239, 255–56
Baker, Howard, 39
Ball, Molly, 218
Barone, Michael, 172
Barro, Josh, 151
Bartels, Larry, 43–44, 216, 232, 289n90
Bates, Eric, 97
battleground states: advertising in, 128–29, 129f, 167, 170; auto bailout and, 190–91; defined, 311n19; Obama’s edge in, 171, 173, 175; race as factor in, 207; voter behavior in, 186–87, 194
Beane, Billy, 4
Bernanke, Ben, 48
Bevan, Tom, 102
Bialek, Sharon, 51
Biden, Joe, 162
Bird, Jeremy, 218
birth control. See contraception
Boehner, John, 16, 34, 106, 136, 141
Booker, Cory, 117
Boston Globe (newspaper), 125, 126–27, 139
Brabender, John, 84
Britain, 116
Brooks, David, 28, 101, 151, 158
Brown, Sherrod, 218
Brownback, Sam, 131
Brownstein, Ronald, 197
budget. See federal budget
budget sequestration, 231
Burns, Alexander, 141
Bush, George H. W.: in 1980 election, 39; economy’s effect on election of, 100, 101, 113; predicted re-election of, 30; Romney endorsed by, 37
Bush, George W., 156, 233; and 2000 election, 109; benefited from blame attached to Clinton, 25–26; blame attached to, 25, 108, 112; in debates, 155; economic programs of, 11, 13–14, 17, 26, 108, 135; endorsements for, 38; job approval ratings of, 14, 227; and the Latino vote, 198; mandate claimed by, 227; partisanship in the presidency of, 23; predicted re-election of, 30; primaries lost by, 96
Bush, Jeb, 37, 80, 85, 132, 235
BuzzFeed (online magazine), 228
Cain, Herman, 7, 34, 45–46, 49–51, 49f, 57, 58, 250
Calmes, Jackie, 48
Cameron, Carl, 64
campaign consultants, 5
campaign financing: balance of, 2, 3, 9; fund-raising methods, 4; horse-race coverage as aid to, 279n39; Obama, 167–68; Romney, 58, 167–68
campaigns, 5–6, 31; 2012 presidential summer, 97–140; balance in, 3; field offices of, 216–22, 217f, 271–72; fundamentals as the context for, 12–13; fundamentals of elections as affected by, 223–24; imbalances in, 3; impact and effectiveness of, 3, 5, 9, 128–31, 138–41, 182, 188, 216–24, 237, 239–40; insider accounts of, 5; Obama’s, 176, 216–22, 237, 271–72; partisanship reinforced by, 146, 163, 180, 182, 186–87; in primaries, 7; professionalism of, 7, 8, 67, 78, 80; quantitative approach to, 3–7, 238–39; role of emotion and intuition in, 3–4; Romney’s, 65, 67, 71, 78–80, 176, 217–22, 271–72. See also campaign strategies and practices
campaign strategies and practices: advertising, 167–68; candidates’ messages, 107–9; communications, 71; economy as focus of, 107, 187; effectiveness of, 3, 5, 12–13, 31; encouraging scrutiny of opponents, 44; ground game, 79; partisanship as focus of, 9, 103; quantitative approach to, 6–7; Republican overhaul of, 237; Romney events, 65
candidates: analyzing media coverage of, 46, 47f, 49f, 52f, 56f, 69f, 73f, 75f, 85; basic criteria for, 38–40; decisions of, on entering the race, 35–37; media coverage resulting from exceeding expectations, 42, 44, 71, 82–83, 85; public opinion on, 59f
Cannon, Carl, 102
Carter, Jimmy: and 1976 election, 109; and 1980 election, 108–9; blame attached to, 25; economy’s effect on election of, 101, 113; job approval ratings of, 14, 24
Carville, James, 158
Cauchon, Dennis, 191
CBS News, 97
chance, 2
children of undocumented immigrants, 197–200 China, 111
choice, 2
Christie, Chris, 35, 132, 165–66
clarifying campaign messages, 108–9, 134
Clinton, Bill, 233; blame attached to, 25–26; economic programs of, 15; economy’s effect on election of, 101; Gore and, 108, 187; job approval ratings of, 24; and Obama campaign, 117, 158, 165; popularity of, 58; predicted reelection of, 30; primaries lost by, 96
Clinton, Hillary, 104, 108, 208
Collins, Gail, 102
Collins, Susan, 16
communications campaign strategies, 71
Conference Board Leading Economic Index, 100, 101f, 290n10
Conservative Political Action Conference, 83
conservatives and conservatism: in 2012 Republican primary season, 39–40, 58–63, 60f, 66–67, 66f, 81; liability of, 34; Obama presidency and, 230; Romney and, 8, 32, 33, 58–63, 81, 86–89, 91, 133, 155, 176, 197–98, 203–5
consumer sentiment, 14, 15f, 16–17, 100, 243, 290n9
contraception, 192–95, 194f, 260–63
conventions: for 2012 election, 143–48, 183, 199; advertising during, 168; impact of, 142, 143, 145; media coverage of, 143, 145
Cook, Charlie, 101
Corn, David, 151
Cost, Jay, 212
Coulter, Ann, 90
credit rating, of United States, 34
Crossroads GPS, 128
Cruz, Ted, 226
Cutter, Stephanie, 175
Darr, Joshua, 221
debates: in 2012 election, 142, 155–64; Gingrich in, 51–53, 72, 74–78; historical impact of, 155–56, 161, 163–64; media coverage of, 156–58, 163; in primary season, 42; Romney in, 77–78, 142
decline phase, in primaries, 3, 7, 33, 45, 50, 51, 53–54, 80–82
deficit. See federal budget
DeLay, Tom, 78
DeMint, Jim, 86
Democratic constituencies, 189–203, 234–35
Democratic National Committee (DNC), 128, 296n85
Democratic Party: and 2010 elections, 18–20; convention of, 146–48, 183, 199; ideological shifts in, 23; issues associated with, 136–38; post-election assessments by, 226; and realignment, 231–35; socioeconomic status associated with, 114
demographic groups: Obama’s results among, 190, 191f; voting swings by, 202–3
Dickerson, John, 216
discovery phase, in primaries, 3, 7, 33, 43–44, 67, 69–72, 82–83
Doré, William, 82
Dowd, Matthew, 224
Dowd, Maureen, 27
DREAM Act, 202
Dukakis, Michael, 140
Earnest, Mike, 123
economic determinism, 31
economic stimulus package, 15–18
economy: and 1984 election, 108; and 2012 election, 109–15, 134–36, 179–80, 179f, 259–60; campaign focus on, 107, 187; as election fundamental, 11, 187; incumbents’ chances affected by, 12, 12f, 99–101, 101f, 188, 223–24; inherited by Obama, 13–15, 26, 247–48; Obama’s election chances and, 3, 8, 9, 11, 14, 19, 30–31, 35, 97–98, 100–101, 177, 179–80, 187–88, 223–24; in Obama’s first term, 15–18; presidential elections and, 11–12, 12f, 29–30, 108–9, 113, 177, 178f, 180, 188; public opinion on, 14, 15f, 16–17, 111–15, 135, 183–84, 183f; recession (1981–1982), 14, 25; recession (2007–2009), 14–18; recovery of, after financial crises, 16; Republican challengers’ assessments of, 35; Romney on, 98. See also jobs and unemployment
Edsall, Thomas, 205
Eisenhower, Dwight, 30
electability, of candidates, 36, 38–40, 68, 91–94, 92f, 93f, 289n90
Ellis, Christopher, 136
Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, 14
empathy, perceptions of candidates’, 114–15, 123, 127–28, 151–54, 154f, 176, 212–16, 255–56
employment. See jobs and unemployment
endorsements: in 2012 Republican primary season, 37–40, 57–58, 57f, 67, 70, 84, 85–86, 95; importance of, 37–38; during invisible primary, 37; of Romney, 1, 37, 57–58, 67, 85, 95; timing of, 38, 39f
Enten, Harry, 166
Erikson, Robert, 100, 156, 180
evangelical Christians: in 2012 Republican primary season, 66f, 70, 72, 81; and Mormonism, 32, 209, 210; Romney and, 32, 87, 209–10
Evolving Strategies, 79
exit polls, 198
Fallows, James, 27
Family Leader, 70
federal budget, 111, 134, 135–38
Federal Reserve Board, 48
field organization, 216–22, 217f, 271–72
financial crisis (2008–), 13–14, 180
Flake, Jeff, 16
Florida primary, 77–80, 253–54
fog of war, 172
Ford, Gerald, 39
forecasting models, 28–29, 102, 177, 238–39, 248
47% video, 9, 142, 150–55, 158, 175, 303n36
Foster, Daniel, 212
Fournier, Ron, 156
Franz, Michael, 218
Freddie Mac, 53
Fridkin, Kim, 156
fundamentals of elections: in 2012 election, 13, 27–29, 101, 140, 145, 175, 177–89; as context for campaigning, 12–13, 239; defining, 2; economy as one of, 11, 187; effects of campaigning on, 223–24; partisanship in relation to, 311n16; predictive value of, 12; and of primaries, 33; significance of, 2–3, 11–13
fund-raising methods, 4
Gabriel, Trip, 53
gaffes, 45, 98, 115–22, 151–52, 242, 295n72
game-changing moments, 1, 9, 226–27, 240, 242
Gardner, Amy, 77
Gawker, 143
gay marriage, 107, 230, 236, 237
gender, and voting behavior, 193, 196–97, 260–63
Georgia, 84
Gerson, Michael, 224
Gibbs, Robert, 162
“gifts,” to Democratic constituencies, 176, 189–203
Gingrich, Marianne, 75
Gingrich, Newt, 7–8, 34, 42, 44, 45–46, 51–54, 52f, 58, 61, 66–67, 70, 72–82, 75f, 84, 86–88, 91, 95–96, 114, 189, 197, 250–54
Goldberg, Jonah, 32
Goldwater, Barry, 238
government role and size, 111, 116, 134–36, 150–55, 303n36
Granger, Clive, 250
grassroots support, 96
Greenberg, Stanley, 158
Grossback, Lawrence, 230
gross domestic product (GDP), 12, 12f, 177, 178f
gross rating points (GRPs), 128, 129f, 130, 170, 171f, 297n95
gun control, 231
Hahn, Kyu, 41
Hanmer, Michael, 263
Harris, John, 141
health care reform, 17–18, 200–201
Helderman, Rosalind, 77
Hopkins, Dan, 192
horse-race coverage, 41–42, 45, 54, 166, 279n39
House Committee on Oversight and Government, 192
house effect, 120
Huffington Post (newspaper), 97–98
Huntsman, Jon, 37, 61, 63, 72, 91
Hurley, Chuck, 70
Hurricane Isaac, 145
Idaho, 85
ideology: in 2012 Republican primary season, 58–59, 60f, 61–63, 62f, 87–92, 88f, 90f, 93f; of average voter, 61, 89, 203–4, 204f, 230; of independent voters, 204–5; Obama and, 160, 176, 203–5, 204f; of the public, 229–30, 229f; of Republican Party, 23, 32, 34, 40, 58–59, 61–63, 89–91, 96, 236–37; Romney and, 32, 40, 58–59, 86–90, 90f, 93f, 96, 158, 160, 176, 197–98, 203–5, 204f. See also conservatives and conservatism
immigration, 197–203, 230, 235, 237, 263–65
incumbents: advantages of, 35, 224, 236; approval ratings as predictive factor for, 29–31; Democratic vs. Republican, 100; economy’s effect on, 12, 12f, 99–101, 101f, 188, 223–24; party’s length in White House as predictive factor for, 29; predecessors’ legacies for, 25–27, 275n29
independent voters: on Bush (G.W.), 26; on Carter, 25; on Clinton, 26; ideology of, 204–5; Obama’s popularity among, 24–26; party identification of, 102–3; pure, 102–3; on Reagan, 25. See also persuadable voters; undecided voters
Index of Consumer Sentiment, 14, 15f, 290n9
Indiana, 221
insider accounts, 5
insurgent candidates, 108
insurgent issues/campaigns, 111, 134–35, 138
invisible primaries, 36–37, 54
Iraq War, 227
Israel, 116
issues in 2012 election, 109, 110f; Benghazi attacks, 148–50; economy, 109–15, 134–36, 187–88; Medicare, 136–38; Romney’s wealth and empathy, 122–28, 150–55
Iyengar, Shanto, 41
Jacobson, Gary, 35
Jindal, Bobby, 132
job approval ratings. See popularity and job approval ratings
jobs and unemployment: and 1984 election, 30; and 2012 election, 97–98, 107, 109–11, 162, 179f, 180, 184; in Obama’s first term, 13, 14, 16, 34
Johnson, Lyndon, 30
journalism. See media coverage
journalists: incentives of, 5, 42; judgment of, 42; value of quantitative approach for, 240–41
Kalkan, Kerem Ozan, 263
Keele, Luke, 221
Kellner, Peter, 161
Kelly, Megyn, 238
Kemp, Jack, 131
Kennedy, John F., 21, 24, 109, 135, 155
Kernell, Samuel, 35
Kerry, John, 58, 156, 198, 226, 233
Khan, Huma, 44
King, John, 75
Klein, Joe, 172
Krauthammer, Charles, 32, 34–35
Larison, Daniel, 155
Latinos, voting behavior of, 197–203, 230, 235, 236, 263–65
Leaders for Families, 70
Lehman Brothers, 14
Letterman, David, 150
Levendusky, Matthew, 221
Lewis, Michael, Moneyball, 4
Limbaugh, Rush, 34–35, 89, 194
Lind, Michael, 231
Linzer, Drew, 172
Lohan, Lindsay, 1
Maine caucus, 83
Mandel, Josh, 218
Marcus, Ruth, 212
marijuana legalization, 230
Marshall, Josh, 151
Martin, Jonathan, 101
Masket, Seth, 221
Massachusetts, 85
mass shootings, 125, 231, 297n91
Matthews, Chris, 105, 157, 160
Mayhew, David, 235
McCain, John, 14, 37, 57–58, 87, 89, 96, 103, 113, 146, 228
McCaskill, Claire, 193
McDonnell, Bob, 132
media consumers, horse-race coverage preferred by, 41–42
media coverage: of 2012 Republican primary season, 33, 41–86; advertising as stimulus for, 124–25; balance in, 99, 121, 139–40, 173; boomlets in, 33, 41–46, 66; for candidates exceeding expectations, 42, 44, 71, 82–83, 85; of contraception and abortion, 194–95, 194f; of conventions, 143, 145; data analysis of, 46; data on, 248–49; of debates, 156–58, 163; effect of, in general elections, 121–22; framing function of, 43, 50; of gaffes, 117, 119; horse-race perspective in, 41–42, 45, 54, 166, 279n39; incentives behind, 5; market pressures on, 5, 42; of Obama, 97, 117, 118f, 126, 139–40, 144f, 145–49, 157, 162–63, 166; polls in relation to, 43, 166, 249–51, 254–55, 259; primary patterns linked to, 3, 7, 33, 41–54, 66; quantitative approach in, 240–41; role of, 3, 5; of Romney, 33, 56–58, 56f, 73–74, 73f, 78, 82, 117, 118f, 119, 125–26, 125f, 139–40, 144f, 145–49, 151, 157, 163–66, 251; tone of, 46, 47f, 48; voter behavior influenced by, 43–44
Medicaid, 18
Milbank, Dana, 42
Mishkin, Arnon, 238
Mormonism, 32, 176, 208–12, 268–70
Morris, Dick, 172
Moser, Bob, 228
Mother Jones (magazine), 150
Mourdock, Richard, 193, 194, 197
Murphy, Tim, 1
Nakamura, David, 156
National Restaurant Association, 49, 51
National Review (magazine), 89
natural disasters, election impact of, 165
Nevada caucuses, 80
news coverage. See media coverage
Newtown, Connecticut mass shooting, 231
New York Times (newspaper), 25, 47–48, 53–54, 71, 72, 85, 97, 126, 162, 164, 198, 216
9-9-9 tax plan, 50
Norpoth, Helmut, 41
North Carolina, 221
Obama, Barack: in 2008 election, 103–4; advertising by, 99, 109–10, 110f, 122–31, 124f, 167–68, 169f, 170–71, 173, 192–93, 218–21, 256–58, 271–72; benefited from blame attached to Bush, 26, 112; birthplace of, 50, 143; in debates, 156–64; Democratic attitudes toward, 102, 104, 106–7, 146, 162, 163; and Democratic constituencies, 176, 189–203; Democrats’ attitudes toward, 19; demographic groups’ voting record for, 190, 191f; domestic policies of, 17–19; economy during first term of, 15–18; economy inherited by, 13–15, 26, 247–48; economy’s effect on election chances of, 3, 8, 9, 11, 14, 19, 30–31, 35, 97–98, 100–101, 177, 187–88, 223–24; gaffes of, 115–21; Gingrich on, 75; and Hurricane Sandy, 165–66; ideology and issue stances of, 160, 176, 203–5, 204f; Latino voters and, 197–203; media coverage of, 97, 117, 118f, 126, 139, 144f, 145–49, 157, 162–63, 166; partisanship in the presidency of, 16, 19, 23–25, 230–31; personal characteristics of, 27; popularity and job approval of, 13, 20–27, 20f, 22f, 24f, 30–31, 34, 112, 135, 149, 208, 243–46; primaries lost by, 96; prospects of, for 2012 election, 27–31; and race, 22, 176, 205–8, 246–47; Rust Belt voters and, 190–92; voters’ opinions of, 13, 114, 153, 154f, 159f, 160, 182, 212–15, 270–71; women voters and, 192–97
Obamacare. See Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
Occupy Wall Street, 19
Oklahoma, 85
Oppel, Richard, Jr., 52
Orszag, Peter, 15
Palestinians, 116
partisanship: in 2012 election, 8–9, 98, 102–5, 180–82, 181t; campaigns’ reinforcement of, 146, 163, 180, 182, 186–87; fundamentals of elections in relation to, 311n16; gender gap in, 193; increase in, 102–3; independent voters and, 102–3; in Obama presidency, 16, 19, 23–25, 230–31; perceptions of politicians related to, 13, 23–25, 213, 214f; of persuadable voters, 184–87, 186f; in presidential elections, 9, 102–3, 162; in response to gaffes, 152; strengthening of, 23; undecided voters and, 106
party leaders, primary season role of, 36–39, 54, 58, 67, 80, 84
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), 17–18, 107, 137, 205
Paul, Ron, 34, 58, 61, 77, 81, 279n42
Pawlenty, Tim, 34
Perry, Rick, 7, 34, 40, 45–50, 47f, 57, 58, 74, 91, 114, 197–98, 250
personal income, 100
persuadable voters: decisions of, 98; in final stretch, 164; influence of attacks on Romney on, 126; influence of conventions on, 146, 150; influence of 47% video on, 153; influence of gaffes on, 121; influence of Hurricane Sandy on, 167; partisanship of, 184–87, 186f; perceptions of economy of, 183f; race as factor for, 207. See also undecided voters
Peterson, David, 230
Petraeus, David, 132
Pew Center Project for Excellence in Journalism, 46, 166, 248–49
policy, voter behavior and, 228–29
political advertising. See advertising
political science studies, 5–6, 240–41
Politico (news outlet), 51, 164, 165, 226, 240–41
Pollitt, Katha, 193
polls: in 2012 election, 120f, 142, 146, 147f, 152–53, 157–58, 160–61, 163, 165–67, 172–73, 178; in 2012 Republican primary season, 76f, 91; bias in, 172; Cain in, 49–51; Gingrich in, 51–54, 75–76; media coverage in relation to, 43, 166, 249–51, 254–55, 259; Perry in, 47–50; predictive value of, 172; Romney in, 55, 56f, 58, 74, 76, 81 (see also in 2012 election); Santorum in, 65, 69–70, 81, 83, 85–86; in summer before election, 98. See also straw polls
Ponnuru, Ramesh, 63
popularity and job approval ratings: Bush (G.W.), 14, 227; Carter, 14, 24; Clinton, 58; factors in, 20, 21; Obama, 13, 20–27, 20f, 22f, 24f, 30–31, 34, 112, 135, 149, 208, 243–46; partisanship and, 13, 23–25; predictive value of, 29–31; Republicans in Congress, 34. See also Obama, Barack: voters’ opinions of; public opinion; Romney, Mitt: voters’ opinions of
Portman, Rob, 132
presidential elections: assessments of campaign strategies for, 5; candidates’ character as factor in, 216; conventions’ impact on, 143; economy as factor in, 11–12, 12f, 29–30, 108–9, 113, 177, 178f, 180, 188; fundamentals as predictors of, 12; mandates in, 227–31; partisanship in, 9, 102–3; post-election assessments of, 226–27; quantitative approach to, 238–41; realignments following, 231–35; stability in, 9, 98–99, 121, 189, 227; voter behavior in, 104. See also 2012 presidential election; incumbents
press. See media coverage
primary elections, 7–8; 1980 Republican, 39; divisive, minimal effects of, 103–4; fundamentals of, 33; imbalances in, 3, 7, 33; invisible primaries before, 36–37, 54; patterns in, 3, 7, 33, 41–54, 66. See also 2012 Republican primary season
priming effects, 128
Priorities USA Action, 122–24, 127, 128, 239
Project for Excellence in Journalism. See Pew Center Project for Excellence in Journalism
Prouty, Scott, 150
Psaki, Jen, 193
public opinion: on debates, 157–58; on economy, 14, 15f, 16–17, 111–15, 135, 183–84, 183f; on government role and size, 135–36; on health care, 18; on Medicare, 136–38; on Tea Party, 34; thermostatic function of, 229–30, 229f. See also popularity and job approval ratings
race, 22–23, 176, 199f, 205–8, 246–47, 266–68
racial resentment, 22–23, 206–8, 246–47, 266–68
rape, 193
Reagan, Ronald: and 1980 election, 108–9, 113; and 1984 election, 14–15, 30, 108; benefited from blame attached to Carter, 25; candidacy of, 39; job approval ratings of, 25; predicted re-election of, 30
Red White and Blue Fund, 70, 82
religion. See evangelical Christians; Mormonism
Republican National Committee (RNC), 109, 128, 218
Republican Party: and 2010 elections, 18–20, 34; campaign mechanics of, 237; convention of, 143, 145–46; future of, 235–38; House control by, 233; ideology of, 23, 32, 34, 40, 58–59, 61–63, 89–91, 96, 236–37; and immigration, 198; and Latinos, 202, 230, 235, 236; leaders of, 36–39, 54, 58, 67, 80, 84; during Obama Presidency, 230–31; popularity of Congress members from, 34; post-election assessments by, 189, 212, 226, 235–36; socioeconomic status associated with, 114; Tea Party and, 19, 34, 39–40, 89; and women, 192–97. See also 2012 Republican primary season
Restore Our Future, 76–77, 79, 84, 128
reverse causation, 215
Rice, Condoleezza, 132
Ridout, Travis, 218
RNC. See Republican National Committee
Roemer, Buddy, 34
Romer, Christina, 15
Romney, George, 84
Romney, Mitt: advertising by, 76–78, 84, 109–11, 110f, 123–24, 124f, 128–31, 167–68, 169f, 170–71, 173, 205, 207, 219–21, 223, 256–58, 271–72; Bain Capital years of, 9, 72, 74, 114, 117, 122–28, 125f, 139, 212, 239, 255–56; campaign of, 65, 67, 71, 78–80; in debates, 77–78, 142, 155–64; economy as issue for, 98, 109–11, 113; electability of, 40, 68, 91–94, 92f, 93f; empathy as issue for, 114–15, 123, 127–28, 151–54, 154f, 176, 212–16, 255–56; endorsements for, 1, 37, 57–58, 67, 85, 95; gaffes of, 9, 116–21; and Gingrich, 53–54; ideology and issue stances of, 32, 40, 58–59, 86–90, 90f, 93f, 96, 158, 160, 176, 197–98, 203–5, 204f; and Latinos, 197–203; media coverage of, 33, 56–58, 56f, 73–74, 73f, 78, 82, 117, 118f, 119, 125–26, 125f, 139, 144f, 145–49, 151, 157, 163–66, 251; personal characteristics of, 32; predictions concerning, 3–4; in primary season, 7–8, 32–96, 251–54; religious faith of, 32, 176, 208–12; Republican attitudes toward, 33, 55–59, 60f, 61, 63, 66f, 67–68, 74, 86–96, 87f, 88f, 90f, 93f, 102, 104, 107, 133–34, 155 (see also endorsements for); running mate of, 99, 131–34, 133f, 143; scrutiny of, 73–74; on taxes, 50; voters’ opinions of, 13, 113–15, 126–27, 140, 141, 149, 152–53, 154f, 159f, 160, 176, 182, 212–16, 270–71; wealth of, 50, 77, 113–14, 122–23, 127, 141, 143, 151–52, 212, 296n85; and women, 192–97
Rove, Karl, 40, 48, 172, 231, 238–39
Rucker, Philip, 156
Ruffini, Patrick, 40
Ryan, Paul, 51, 85, 99, 119, 131–38, 143, 149, 162, 231, 236
same-sex marriage, 107, 230, 236, 237
Santorum, Rick, 7–8, 34, 61, 64–72, 69f, 80–91, 94–96, 115, 192
Saturday Night Live (television show), 106
Sawyer, Diane, 111
scrutiny phase, in primaries, 3, 7, 33, 44–45, 47–48, 50–51, 53, 71–74, 83–84
self-interest, and voter behavior, 189–90
sentiment analysis, 46. See also tone, in media coverage
September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, 168
Shays, Christopher, 54
Simas, David, 175
Snowe, Olympia, 16
South Carolina primary, 72, 74–77, 251–53
Specter, Arlen, 16
Spivack, Loren, 94
Stevens, Christopher, 148
Stewart, Mitch, 189
Strauss, Aaron, 167
Summers, Lawrence (Larry), 15, 48
Sununu, John, 54
super-PACs: in 2012 election, 122, 168; in 2012 Republican primary season, 67, 70, 74, 76–78, 82, 84; Obama’s attitude toward, 124
Talent, James, 54
taxes: Cain’s plan for, 50; Romney’s personal returns, 77, 122
Tea Party: and 2010 elections, 18–19, 36; and 2012 election, 32, 34; Palin and, 36; public opinion on, 34; Republican Party and, 19, 34, 39–40, 89; Romney and, 87
tele-townhalls, 71
Tennessee, 85
third-party candidate supporters, 121
tone, in media coverage, 46, 47f, 48, 49f, 50, 52f, 56f, 69f, 73–74, 73f, 75f, 85
Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), 11, 14, 17, 32
tug-of-war, presidential elections as, 9, 98–99, 121, 130–31, 147, 161–62, 163, 173, 222–23
undecided voters, 4, 105–7, 121, 158, 184. See also independent voters; persuadable voters
undocumented immigrants, children of, 197–200
unemployment. See jobs and unemployment
University of Michigan, 14
USS Wisconsin, 131
VandeHei, Jim, 147
Vander Plaats, Bob, 70
Van Lohuizen, Jan, 105
Vavreck, Lynn, 108
Vermont, 85
viability, of candidates, 68, 94, 289n90
vice-presidential candidates, election influence of, 134, 162
Virginia, 85
voter behavior: gender and, 193, 196–97, 260–63; interests and motivations affecting, 189–90; media influence on, 43–44; policy as factor in, 228–29; in presidential elections, 104; race and, 206–8; realignment of, 231–35
Walker, Scott, 1
Wallace, Chris, 238
Wall Street Journal (newspaper), 198
Wang, Sam, 172
Ward, Jon, 81
Washington Mutual, 14
Washington Post (newspaper), 1, 45, 50, 53–54, 79, 123, 149
Wehner, Peter, 224
Welch, Jack, 183
Wenner, Jann, 97
White, Ginger, 51
Wiley, Rick, 218
Will, George, 172
Williams, Juan, 75
Wlezien, Christopher, 100, 156, 180
women, voting behavior of, 192–97, 260–63
Zeleny, Jeff, 48