INTRODUCTION
1. Henry Luce, “The American Century,” Time, February 17, 1941.
2. Conrad Cherry, God’s New Israel: Religious Interpretations of American Destiny (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1998); Stephen M. Walt, “The Myth of American Exceptionalism,” Foreign Policy, October 11, 2011.
3. Harry S. Stout, “Religion, War, and the Meaning of America,” Religion and American Culture: A Journal of Interpretation 19, no. 2 (summer 2009): 284.
1. FROM EXCEPTIONALISM TO INTERNATIONALISM
2. Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis, Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China (Council Special Report No. 72) (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, March 2015).
3. Blackwill and Tellis, Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China, 4.
4. Blackwill and Tellis, Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China, 38.
6. Jeffrey D. Sachs, To Move the World: JFK’s Quest for Peace (New York: Random House, 2013).
2. EXCEPTIONALISM AS THE CIVIC RELIGION
1. Quoted in Reinhold Niebuhr, The Irony of American History (New York: Charles Scribner & Sons, 1952), chapter 3. See also Andrew Preston, Sword of the Spirit, Shield of Faith (New York: Random House, 2012) for an outstanding account of the role of religion in American wars and foreign policy.
3. G. J. Meyer, The World Remade: America in World War I (New York: Random House, 2016).
4. Henry Luce, “The American Century,” Time, February 17, 1941.
5. Niebuhr, The Irony of American History.
6. Niebuhr, The Irony of American History, chapter 3.
7. Niebuhr, The Irony of American History, chapter 3.
11. Jeffrey D. Sachs, Building the New American Economy (New York: Columbia University Press, 2017).
12. Jeffrey D. Sachs, The Price of Civilization (New York: Random House, 2012).
3. THE ERA OF GLOBAL CONVERGENCE
1. Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, volume 2 (Edinburgh: Doig & Stirling, 1811). The passage cited is from book four, page 488.
2. Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression: 1929–1939 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986).
3. Francis Fukuyama, “The End of History?” The National Interest no. 16 (summer 1989): 3–18.
5. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. File POP/1-1: Total population (both sexes combined) by region, subregion and country, annually for 1950–2100 (thousands). Medium fertility variant, 2015–2100. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/.
4. EURASIA ON THE RISE, AMERICA ON THE SIDELINES
1. Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel (New York: Norton, 2005).
3. People’s Republic of China, “Vision and Actions.”
5. RUSSIA–U.S. RELATIONS IN THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER
1. Jeffrey D. Sachs, To Move the World: JFK’s Quest for Peace (New York: Random House, 2013).
7. ENDING THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT
1. Anglo-American Committee of Inquiry, Report to the United States Government and His Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom, Lausanne, Switzerland, April 20, 1946 (Washington, DC: Department of State, 1946), http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/angch01.asp.
8. NORTH KOREA AND THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK
2. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “2018 Doomsday Clock Statement.”
9. TRUMP’S NEW NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
4. U.S. Department of Defense, National Defense Strategy.
5. President of the United States, National Security Strategy.
6. U.S. Department of Defense, National Defense Strategy.
7. President of the United States, National Security Strategy.
9. Xi Jinping, “Report at 19th CPC National Congress.”
10. U.S. Department of Defense, National Defense Strategy.
15. U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review.
16. Military outlays are reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), using local currency converted to dollars at market exchange rates. I choose the base year 1993 because it is the first year for which SIPRI reports post-Soviet Russia’s military outlays. Note that the top-twenty military spenders in 2016 are slightly different from the top-twenty military spenders in 1993. Three countries dropped out of the top-twenty list: Taiwan (province of China), Netherlands, and Sweden. Three others joined the list: Iran, Algeria, and Pakistan. SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex.
17. For this calculation, I count as allies in 1993 all NATO countries plus Australia, Israel, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Sweden, and Taiwan (province of China), leaving China, India, and Russia as non-allies. As of 2016, I designate six of the top-twenty as non-allies: Algeria, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Russia.
10. THE ECONOMIC BALANCE SHEET ON “AMERICA FIRST”
1. Jeffrey D. Sachs, The Price of Civilization (New York: Random House, 2012).
2. Jeffrey D. Sachs, Building the New American Economy (New York: Columbia University Press, 2017).
3. Sachs, New American Economy, especially chapter 7.
4. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, “Worldwide Activities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises: Preliminary Results From the 2014 Benchmark Survey,” “Table II.G1. Employment of Affiliates, Country by Industry,” https://bea.gov/international/usdia2014p.htm, last accessed April 2, 2018.
13. WILL TRUMP HAND CHINA THE TECHNOLOGICAL LEAD?
1. National Academy of Sciences, Rising Above the Gathering Storm (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2007).
15. FROM DIPLOMATIC LEADER TO ROGUE NATION
16. THE ETHICS AND PRACTICALITIES OF FOREIGN AID
17. MANAGING MIGRATION
3. James Q. Whitman, Hitler's American Model: The United States and the Making of Nazi Race Law (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017), 45–46.
18. ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
2. Sustainable Development Solutions Network, SDG Index and Dashboards Report 2017, http://sdgindex.org/.
3. John Helliwell, Richard Layard, and Jeffrey Sachs, eds., World Happiness Report 2018 (New York: Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 2018).
4. John Helliwell, Richard Layard, and Jeffrey Sachs, eds., World Happiness Report 2017 (New York: Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 2017).