INTRODUCTION Why This Isn’t a Poker Book
CHAPTER 1 Life Is Poker, Not Chess
Pete Carroll and the Monday Morning Quarterbacks
Quick or dead: our brains weren’t built for rationality
“I’m not sure”: using uncertainty to our advantage
Most bets are bets against ourselves
Our bets are only as good as our beliefs
CHAPTER 3 Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future
Nick the Greek, and other lessons from the Crystal Lounge
Luck vs. skill: fielding outcomes
Working backward is hard: the SnackWell’s Phenomenon
“If it weren’t for luck, I’d win every one”
All-or-nothing thinking rears its head again
Other people’s outcomes reflect on us
“Maybe you’re the problem, do you think?”
The red pill or the blue pill?
Not all groups are created equal
The group rewards focus on accuracy2
The group ideally exposes us to a diversity of viewpoints
Social psychologists: confirmatory drift and Heterodox Academy
Mertonian communism: more is more
Universalism: don’t shoot the message
Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it’s contagious
Organized skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friends
Communicating with the world beyond our group
CHAPTER 6 Adventures in Mental Time Travel
Let Marty McFly run into Marty McFly
Moving regret in front of our decisions
A flat tire, the ticker, and a zoom lens
“Yeah, but what have you done for me lately?”
Ulysses contracts: time traveling to precommit
Reconnaissance: mapping the future
Backcasting: working backward from a positive future
Premortems: working backward from a negative future
Dendrology and hindsight bias (or, Give the chainsaw a rest)
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER READING