Preface
1. Entering a New World
A Massive Market Failure
Environment and Civilization
China: Why the Existing Economic Model Will Fail
Mounting Stresses, Failing States
A Civilizational Tipping Point
Plan B—A Plan of Hope
I. A CIVILIZATION IN TROUBLE
2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security
The Coming Decline of Oil
The Oil Intensity of Food
The Changing Food Prospect
Cars and People Compete for Crops
The World Beyond Peak Oil
Food Insecurity and Failing States
3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas
Rising Temperature and Its Effects 49
The Crop Yield Effect
Reservoirs in the Sky
Melting Ice and Rising Seas
More-Destructive Storms
Cutting Carbon 80 Percent by 2020
4. Emerging Water Shortages
Water Tables Falling
Rivers Running Dry
Lakes Disappearing
Farmers Losing to Cities
Scarcity Crossing National Borders
Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses
5. Natural Systems Under Stress
Shrinking Forests: The Many Costs
Losing Soil
From Grassland to Desert
Advancing Deserts
Collapsing Fisheries
Disappearing Plants and Animals
6. Early Signs of Decline
Our Socially Divided World
Health Challenge Growing
Throwaway Economy in Trouble
Population and Resource Conflicts
Environmental Refugees on the Rise
II. THE RESPONSE—PLAN B
7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population
Universal Basic Education
Stabilizing Population
Better Health for All
Curbing the HIV Epidemic
Reducing Farm Subsidies and Debt
A Poverty Eradication Budget
8. Restoring the Earth
Protecting and Restoring Forests
Conserving and Rebuilding Soils
Regenerating Fisheries
Protecting Plant and Animal Diversity
Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon
The Earth Restoration Budget
9. Feeding Eight Billion Well
Rethinking Land Productivity
Raising Water Productivity
Producing Protein More Efficiently
Moving Down the Food Chain
Action on Many Fronts
10. Designing Cities for People
The Ecology of Cities
Redesigning Urban Transport
Reducing Urban Water Use
Farming in the City
Upgrading Squatter Settlements
Cities for People
11. Raising Energy Efficiency
Banning the Bulb
Energy-Efficient Appliances
More-Efficient Buildings
Restructuring the Transport System
A New Materials Economy
The Energy Savings Potential
12. Turning to Renewable Energy
Harnessing the Wind
Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars
Solar Cells and Collectors
Energy from the Earth
Plant-Based Sources of Energy
River, Tidal, and Wave Power
The World Energy Economy of 2020
III. AN EXCITING NEW OPTION
13. The Great Mobilization
Shifting Taxes and Subsidies
Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures
A Response to Failing States
A Wartime Mobilization
Mobilizing to Save Civilization
What You and I Can Do
Notes
Acknowledgements
About the Author