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Index
Contents
About the Author
Acknowledgements
Introduction, or How a Relay of Misery Can Lead to Good Things
Let me take you on my journey
My selection of the seven most common mistakes
Chapter 1: The Shortest Investment Joke: My Forecast Has a Decimal Point
The future is uncertain – deal with it
It gets worse…
The uncertainty introduced by compound interest
Increasing uncertainty
More isn’t more: information versus accuracy
The true value of company analysis
Resist the temptation to summarise everything into one number
Integrating uncertainty into the investment process
A better way to deal with uncertainty
Main points
References
Chapter 2: The Long Term is Not the Sum of Short Terms
Let’s blame the media, shall we?
The media is a symptom, not the cause
Short-termism is bad for your wealth
Finding excuses for trading is easy
Don’t just do something, sit there
Don’t check your portfolio too often
Professionals need to have the right incentives
How you visualise performance matters
Manage your information flow
Main points
References
Chapter 3: Are You a Long-term Investor – or Just Stubborn?
Contrarian investing for the long run
Contrarian investing versus momentum investing
Value investing for the long run
A cautionary tale
Learning from short-term investors
The secret of successful traders: emotional detachment
Listen to the data to rein in your emotions
A mental model of data aggregation
Embrace stop-losses
Main points
References
Chapter 4: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History
Learning from experience in a laboratory
Trading begins and chaos ensues…
Cynical bubbles and bubble echoes
Bubble echoes in the wild
Forgetting past experiences: rekindling a bubble
Career risk as an obstacle to learning from experience
Most fund managers get worse with experience
Individual investors don’t learn from the past either
Learning from experience
Main points
References
Chapter 5: Ignoring the Other Side of a Story
The outcomes for investors were vastly different
A crucial mistake
We don’t like to be contradicted
Test your confirmation bias
The allure of growth
The safety of value
Economic growth and stock returns
Engage with views you disagree with
Change your reading habits
Your new best friend: the devil’s advocate
Main points
Free investment blogs
References
Chapter 6: You Get What You Pay For
Active fees for passive funds
Why are fund managers becoming less active?
A very public failure
An alternative way to lose money for investors
The impact of lower tracking error on investment performance
Incentives matter
Employee-owned funds perform better
So do smaller funds
A 1960s advertisement explains the advantage of smaller funds
How to improve your investment performance
Active share isn’t everything
Small, active and employee owned
Main points
References
Chapter 7: Navigating a Complex World
Why doesn’t Delphi own the world?
A recent regime change in currency markets
Currency hedge funds stop performing
The flawed foundations of modern finance
Financial markets as complex dynamic systems
Insights from complex dynamic systems
How to think about markets as systems
Main points
References
Chapter 8: Over To You
Get to know yourself
Improve yourself
My rules for forecasting
Never stop learning
Publishing details
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