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Index
COVER
ALSO BY DANIEL J. LEVITIN
TITLE PAGE
COPYRIGHT
DEDICATION
CONTENTS
DELUXE CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION | THINKING, CRITICALLY
Video: Introduction (4:24)
PART ONE | EVALUATING NUMBERS
PLAUSIBILITY
Video: Plausibility in General (1:56)
Video: Understanding Percentages and Baselines (3:04)
FUN WITH AVERAGES
Video: Manipulating Averages (2:45)
AXIS SHENANIGANS
Video: The Double Y-Axis (6:13)
HIJINKS WITH HOW NUMBERS ARE REPORTED
HOW NUMBERS ARE COLLECTED
Video: Data Collection (3:22)
PROBABILITIES
PART TWO | EVALUATING WORDS
HOW DO WE KNOW?
IDENTIFYING EXPERTISE
OVERLOOKED, UNDERVALUED ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS
COUNTERKNOWLEDGE
PART THREE | EVALUATING THE WORLD
HOW SCIENCE WORKS
LOGICAL FALLACIES
KNOWING WHAT YOU DON’T KNOW
BAYESIAN THINKING IN SCIENCE AND IN COURT
FOUR CASE STUDIES
CONCLUSION | DISCOVERING YOUR OWN
APPENDIX | APPLICATION OF BAYES’S RULE
GLOSSARY
NOTES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
INDEX
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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