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Index
Cover
Series
Title Page
Copyright
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1: A Brief Introduction: The Ground Rules
My Objective
The Ground Rules
The Process
Basic Trading Systems
Chapter 2: The Idea
Begin at the Beginning
The Idea Must Match Your Trading Personality
I Need a Fast Payout
Withstanding the Test of Time
Chapter 3: Don’t Make It Complex
A Word About Noise
Integrated Solutions Versus Building Blocks
More Rules, Fewer Opportunities, Less Success
Chapter 4: Why Should I Care about “Robust” If I’m Trading Only Apple?
Is It Robust?
Another Dimension
But Which Parameter Value Do I Trade?
Multiple Time Frames
Is One Trend Method Better Than Another?
Chapter 5: Less Is More
Volatility Cuts Both Ways
Bull Markets Happen When Everyone Is in Denial
Chapter 6: If You’re a Trend Follower, Don’t Use Profit-Taking or Stops
The Dynamics of a Trend Strategy
It’s Getting Harder to Find the Trend
The Eurodollar Trend
Where Do You Place Your Stop?
What About Profit-Taking?
Entering on a Pullback
Which Is the Best Trend-Following Method?
Chapter 7: Take Your Profit If You’re a Short-Term Trader
What’s Bad for the Trend Is Good for the Short-Term Trader
If You Can’t Use Stops for Trend Following, Can You Use Them for Short-Term Trading?
There Are Always Exceptions
Chapter 8: Searching for the Perfect System
Looking at the Results
How Much Data and How Many Trades Are Enough?
So, Which Parameter Value Do I Pick?
Chapter 9: Equal Opportunity Trading
Calculating Position Size
Avoid Low-Priced Stocks
True Volatility-Adjusting Doesn’t Work for a Portfolio of Stocks
Risk in Futures
Target Risk
Calculate the Rate of Return for the Portfolio
Assigning Risk to Your Portfolio
Multiple Strategies Are More Important
Not So Easy for the Institutions
Too Much of a Good Thing Can Be Bad
Chapter 10: Testing—The Fork in the Road
Let the Computer Solve It for You
How Do You Evaluate the Results?
What’s Feedback?
Hidden Danger
Forgotten History
Use True Costs
Use Dirty Data
Back-Adjusted and Split-Adjusted Data
The Different Performance Measures
Interpreting the Ratio
Not Everyone Uses the Information Ratio
Number of Trades
Expectations
Chapter 11: Beating It into Submission
Fixing Losing Periods
Use the Average Results
Squeezing the Life Out of a System
Generalizing the Rules
Chapter 12: More on Futures
Leverage
Conversion Factors for Calculating Returns
Don’t Forget FX
FX Quotes
Real Diversification
The Life Cycle of a Commodity Market
Chapter 13: I Don’t Want No Stinkin’ Risk
A Clear Plan
Avoid Low-Priced Stocks
Volatility Over 100%?
Don’t Trade When Volatility Is Very High
Sidestepping Price Shocks
Portfolio Drawdown
Business Risk
Gearing Back Up
Chapter 14: Picking the Best Stocks (and Futures Markets) for Your Portfolio
Asking Too Much
The Practical Solution
Ranking Success
Rotation
Chapter 15: Matching the Strategy to the Market
Noise for Stocks
Noise for ETFs
Noise for Futures
Chapter 16: Constructing a Trend Strategy
The Trend
Buying and Selling Rules
First Tests
Costs
Expectations
Satisfying the First Milestone
Profit-Taking
Volatility Filter
Combining Rules
Multiple Entries and Exits
More Markets, More Robustness
Stabilizing the Risk
Do It Yourself
Chapter 17: Constructing an Intraday Trading Strategy
The Time Frame
Outline
Deciding on the Strategy
Choosing a Strategy
Directional or Mean Reverting
The Basic Rules
The Breakout Rule
Profit Taking and Extreme Volatility
What About the Trend?
Chapter 18: Summary
Resources
System Development Platforms
Blogs
Periodicals
Perry Kaufman Websites
Index
EULA
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