Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis by Schafer, Mark -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

CONTENTS FIGURES TABLES PREFACE CONTRIBUTORS PART I Foreign Policy Analysis

1 FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS AND BEHAVIORAL INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Introduction Foreign Policy Analysis and Behavioral International Relations Old Approaches to Foreign Policy Analysis Behavioral IR: Fad, Fantasy, or (sub)Field? Foreign Policy Analysis and the Scientific Method Models of World Politics Overview of the Book

2 MACROPOLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS

Introduction Macro and Micro Approaches to Foreign Policy Analysis The Billiard Ball Model The Macrofoundations of Foreign Policy Decisions Conclusion

3 MICROPOLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS

Introduction Simple Models of Rationality Exchange Theory and Role Theory The Case of Woodrow Wilson Complex Models of Rationality Integrating Formal Models of Beliefs and Actions Conclusion

4 QUANTUM POLITICS AND OPERATIONAL CODE ANALYSIS

Introduction Models of Preferences and Moves The Operational Code of Henry Kissinger Measuring the Beliefs of Leaders The Operational Code of Barack Obama Conclusion

PART II Foreign Policy Decision Making

5 THE UNITED STATES AND ROGUE LEADERS

Introduction The Challenges of Rogues Understanding Rogues The Beliefs of Rogues Empathizing with Rogues Strategies for the United States Conclusion Notes

6 DECEPTIVE BARGAINING AND NUCLEAR AMBITIONS

Introduction Three Existing Theories—North Korea Goes Nuclear Prospect Theory and North Korea’s Deceptive Bargaining Deceptive Bargaining and Kim Il Sung’s Nuclear Ambitions Conclusion Notes

7 SMALL GROUP DYNAMICS

Introduction Methods and Variables Hypotheses Analysis Multivariate Models Psychological Characteristics: Some Correlations Conclusion Notes

8 ALLIANCES AND THEIR MICROFOUNDATIONS

Introduction The External Threat—Cooperation Proposition Method and Design French and British Intra-State Comparisons French and British Inter-State Comparisons Discussion Conclusion Notes

PART III Foreign Policy Learning

9 LEARNING TO RESIST OR RESISTING TO LEARN?

Introduction Two Schools of Thought The Cold War: Soviet Withdrawal from Cuba and North Korea Operational Code Analysis and Learning Dynamics The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung Learning and Leader Comparisons Conclusion Notes

10 STABILITY AND CHANGE IN BELIEF SYSTEMS

Introduction What Are Beliefs and Why Are They Important? Stability and Change in Operational Codes Phase 1 to Phase 2 Hypotheses Phase 2 to Phase 3 Hypotheses Phase 3 to Phase 4 Hypotheses Methodology and Results Discussion Conclusion Notes

11 EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING BY U.S. PRESIDENTS

Introduction International Factors Domestic Factors Mixed Domestic and International Factors Methods and Variables Models and Results Discussion Notes

12 COGNITIVE RESPONSES BY U.S. PRESIDENTS TO FOREIGN POLICY CRISES

Introduction Learning and Operational Code Analysis Crisis Outcomes and Cognitive Change Crisis Induced Belief Change and Learning Conclusion Notes

PART IV Foreign Policy Dynamics

13 DUELING WITH DICTATORS

Introduction Data Collection and Measurement Procedures Levels of Decision and Data Analysis Steps The Persian Gulf and Kosovo Conflicts Analysis and Results Conclusion

14 BINARY ROLE THEORY

Introduction Binary Role Theory The Elements of Binary Role Theory The Past Hypothesis The First Encounter Hypothesis Solving Two-Sided and Three-Sided Interaction Problems Conclusion

15 THE INTEGRATION OF FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Introduction Understanding Clocks and Clouds The Microfoundations of Foreign Policy Decisions Conclusion

APPENDIX: FORMAL MODELS OF SYMBOLIC AND STRATEGIC INTERACTION

Introduction

BIBLIOGRAPHY INDEX