Predictive Analytics by Siegel, Eric -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Contents Title Copyright Dedication Foreword Preface Introduction: The Prediction Effect Chapter 1: Liftoff! Prediction Takes Action (deployment)

Going Live A Faulty Oracle Everyone Loves Predictive Protection A Silent Revolution Worth a Million The Perils of Personalization Deployment’s Detours and Delays In Flight Elementary, My Dear: The Power of Observation To Act Is to Decide A Perilous Launch Houston, We Have a Problem The Little Model That Could Houston, We Have Liftoff A Passionate Scientist Launching Prediction into Inner Space

Chapter 2: With Power Comes Responsibility (ethics)

The Prediction of Target and the Target of Prediction A Pregnant Pause My 15 Minutes Thrust into the Limelight You Can’t Imprison Something That Can Teleport Law and Order: Policies, Politics, and Policing The Battle over Data Data Mining Does Not Drill Down HP Learns about Itself Insight or Intrusion? Flight Risk: I Quit! Insights: The Factors behind Quitting Delivering Dynamite Don’t Quit While You’re Ahead Predicting Crime to Stop It Before It Happens The Data of Crime and the Crime of Data Machine Risk without Measure The Cyclicity of Prejudice Good Prediction, Bad Prediction The Source of Power

Chapter 3: The Data Effect (data)

The Data of Feelings and the Feelings of Data Predicting the Mood of Blog Posts The Anxiety Index Visualizing a Moody World Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is Inspiration and Perspiration Sifting Through the Data Dump The Instrumentation of Everything We Do Batten Down the Hatches: T.M.I. The Big Bad Wolf The End of the Rainbow Prediction Juice Far Out, Bizarre, and Surprising Insights Correlation Does Not Imply Causation The Cause and Effect of Emotions A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Diamonds Validating Feelings and Feeling Validated Serendipity and Innovation Investment Advice from the Blogosphere Money Makes the World Go ‘Round Putting It All Together

Chapter 4: The Machine That Learns (modeling)

Boy Meets Bank Bank Faces Risk Prediction Battles Risk Risky Business The Learning Machine Building the Learning Machine Learning from Bad Experiences How Machine Learning Works Decision Trees Grow on You Computer, Program Thyself Learn Baby Learn Bigger Is Better Overlearning: Assuming Too Much The Conundrum of Induction The Art and Science of Machine Learning Feeling Validated: Test Data Carving Out a Work of Art Putting Decision Trees to Work for Chase Money Grows on Trees The Recession—Why Microscopes Can’t Detect Asteroid Collisions After Math

Chapter 5: The Ensemble Effect (ensembles)

Casual Rocket Scientists Dark Horses Mindsourced: Wealth in Diversity Crowdsourcing Gone Wild Your Adversary Is Your Amigo United Nations Meta-Learning A Big Fish at the Big Finish Collective Intelligence The Wisdom of Crowds . . . of Models A Bag of Models Ensemble Models in Action The Generalization Paradox: More Is Less The Sky’s the Limit

Chapter 6: Watson and the Jeopardy! Challenge (question answering)

Text Analytics Our Mother Tongue’s Trials and Tribulations Once You Understand the Question, Answer It The Ultimate Knowledge Source Artificial Impossibility Learning to Answer Questions Walk Like a Man, Talk Like a Man A Better Mousetrap The Answering Machine Moneyballing Jeopardy! Amassing Evidence for an Answer Elementary, My Dear Watson Mounting Evidence Weighing Evidence with Ensemble Models An Ensemble of Ensembles Machine Learning Achieves the Potential of Language Processing Confidence without Overconfidence The Need for Speed Double Jeopardy!—Would Watson Win? Jeopardy! Jitters For the Win After Match: Honor, Accolades, and Awe Iambic IBM AI Predict the Right Thing

Chapter 7: Persuasion by the Numbers (uplift)

Churn Baby Churn Sleeping Dogs A New Thing to Predict Eye Can’t See It Perceiving Persuasion Persuasive Choices Business Stimulus and Business Response The Quantum Human Predicting Influence with Uplift Modeling Banking on Influence Predicting the Wrong Thing Response Uplift Modeling The Mechanics of Uplift Modeling How Uplift Modeling Works The Persuasion Effect Influence Across Industries Immobilizing Mobile Customers

Afterword: Ten Predictions for the First Hour of 2020 Appendices

Appendix A: Five Effects of Prediction Appendix B: Twenty-One Applications of Predictive Analytics Appendix C: Prediction People—Cast of “Characters”

Notes Acknowledgments About the Author Supplement: A Cross-Industry Compendium of 147 Examples Index

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