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Index
Cover Contents Title Foreword Bull’s Eye Investing
Contents Title Dedication Copyright Acknowledgments Introduction Chapter 1: Car Wreck, Traffic Jam, or Freeway?
Secular Bear Markets Rules of Engagement Jumping Ahead Positively, Absolutely Relative The Correlations Change It’s All about Assumptions Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics Mean Lean Reversion Machine The Missing Link: Investor Sentiment Don’t Worry! Be Happy! The Real Link between Age and the Markets The Predictability of Randomness Sideways to Down for 20 Years?
Chapter 2: Faith versus History
Secular Bear Markets Blind Dogs and Janus Managers Phony Analysis Are We at the Bottom? Faith versus History
Chapter 3: The Trend Is Your Friend (Until It Isn’t)
Investing by Committee Take a Risk, You Get Fired Bull versus Bear, Siegel versus Grantham Cooking the Data Books How to Spot a Market Cheerleader What Will the Stock Market Return over 10 Years?
Chapter 4: Catching the Next Wave
Stock Market Cycles Understanding Stock Market Behavior Growing Pains Expansions and Expectations Long Waves Explained (Finally) Something New This Way Comes!
Chapter 5: Into the Matrix: History’s Guide to Realistic Expectations
Secular Bear Markets by the Numbers The 20-Year Horizon The Volatility Gremlins The Investment Matrix: The Real Truth about Stock Market Returns The Investment Matrix Revelations When Can We Make Long-Term Money in Stocks Again? Death and Taxes What Are Expected Stock Returns for Next 20 Years? Slip-Sliding Away Sequences over Time: Cycles They Almost Got It Right It’s Not the (Stupid) Economy The Opportunity for Current Graduates
Chapter 6: Financial Physics: Interconnected Relationships
A + B = C: It’s All Connected Predicting Earnings Applying Financial Physics What Does It Mean?
Chapter 7: Risky Expectations
Risk Premiums Predicting a 50 Percent Drop “Hopeful” Outcomes
Chapter 8: Plausible Expectations: A Realistic Appraisal of the Prospects for Earnings Growth
The Glass Ceiling Earnings Deflation April Fools Investing How Hidden Options Expenses Will Actually Affect Earnings Earnings before Interest and Hype How Far Away Is the Bottom? NASDAQ Prediction Pension Fund Woes The Wendy Gramm Factor Plausible Expectations and Irrational Exuberance The 2 Percent Dilution Factor Nash-Kelvinator, Studebaker, and Other U.S. Giants Summing Up Our Learning about Earnings The Earnings Road Just Got Steeper
Chapter 9: Pension Fund Problems in Your Backyard
Nightmare on Pension Fund Street Can It Get Worse?
Chapter 10: The Issue of Retirement in an Aging World: Is It Something in the Water?
Is Retirement in Your Future? Fantasy Island Supply and Demand Is the Main Culprit Health Care Pressures Take an Aspirin and Call Me in the Morning Who Really Owns GM and Ford? What Happens If You Don’t Compound at 10 Percent over the Next 10 Years? What Could Make a Difference? Social Security Solutions? Be Honest with Yourself How to Lose 20 Percent in Five Years—Guaranteed
Chapter 11: Demography Is Destiny
Age Vulnerability: Your Pension or Your Life Demography Is Destiny
Chapter 12: King Dollar and the Guillotine
The Kindness of Strangers The Artificial Dollar Why the Dollar Rose The Competitive Devaluation Raceway The Law of One Price An Uncomfortable Adjustment The Artificial Dollar and Deflation Can You Focus the Picture, Please?
Chapter 13: The Muddle Through Economy
Déjà Vu All Over Again The Good News The Unsustainable Trend—The Trade Deficit The U.S. Government Deficit The Demographic Conundrum The Jobless Recovery, Productivity, and the International Labor Arbitrage The Steroid Economy The Unsustainable Trend, Part Two Bulls to the Left of Me, Bears to the Right of Me, Here I Am Stuck in the Muddle Through Middle with You
Chapter 14: Chairman Greenspan and the Shoot-Out at the OK Corral
The Famous Fed Printing Press Speech A Very Clear Fed Speech Stimulating Demand The Greenspan Uncertainty Principle Monetary Policy under Uncertainty Real-World Central Banking Greenspan Says, “Trust Me” The End Game
Chapter 15: Why Investors Fail: Analyzing Risk
Investors Behaving Badly Analyze This: Analysts Are Useless Tails You Lose, Heads I Win Ergodicity Why Investors Fail I’ve Got a Secret System When Will the Next Bull (or Bear) Market Run Begin? Analyzing a Fund Becoming a Top 20 Percent Investor Investors Behaving Badly
Chapter 16: Taking Stock: The Fundamental Nature of Bull’s Eye Investing
The Home Field Advantage Home Field Bias Familiarity Breeds (Over)Confidence Evidence for Investor Overreaction Stock Prices Are in Our Heads, Or Maybe Investors Are Just Head Cases The French/Fama Connection Value Is Where You Find It
Chapter 17: Bringing Out Your Inner Spock
A Litany of Mistakes What a Tangled Web We Weave, When First We Practice to Deceive The Problem with Assumptions Addicted to Growth
Chapter 18: The Value in Stocks
Value, Value, Value The Small Investor Advantage Get Some Help A Few Ground Rules for Bull’s Eye Investing in Stocks Too Much Work and Not Enough Time Where Are the Funds? Suffering Along with Warren Investing in Stocks for Income Trading Away
Chapter 19: Investing in Bonds: Or the Sisyphus Syndrome Chapter 20: Hedge Funds 101: The Basics
The Technical Beginning The Jones Model—The Birth of Hedge Funds Plus Ça Change, Plus C’est le Même Chose Legal Structure and Restrictions Business Model Management Fees Investment Minimums The Most Important Factor Hedge Funds: Strategies and Returns The Index Dilemma Hedge Fund Strategies Convertible Arbitrage Fixed Income Arbitrage Funds Long/Short Equity Funds Event-Driven Funds Fund of Hedge Funds A Modest Proposal The Hedge Fund Investment Company Finding Hedge Funds Hedge Fund Indexes and the Investment Process
Chapter 21: Investing in a Fund of Hedge Funds
Access Liquidity Diversification, Risk, and Returns Taking Charge or Along for the Ride? Choosing a Fund of Funds Manager Rydex SPhinX A Few More Facts A Few Thoughts on the Risk in a Fund of Funds
Chapter 22: Doing Your Due Diligence
The Due Diligence Process
Chapter 23: All That Glitters, Etc.
Taking Stock of Gold Your Basic Commodities So Why Even Write about It? What Are Global Macro Funds? Volatility, Volatility, Everything Is Volatility Risks and More Risks How Do You Choose a Fund? Getting Real A Few Thoughts on Starting a New Business
Chapter 24: Bull’s Eye Investing
The Nature of Change
Appendix A: Suggested Reading Material Appendix B: Bond Information Appendix C: Hedge Fund Industry Resources Appendix D: Hedge Fund Net Worth Requirements: Why a Million Isn’t Always Enough Bibliography About the Author Index Insert
Just One Thing
Contents Title Copyright Introduction Chapter 1: Signposts in the Fog
Investing in The Fog You Can’t Make Money Standing in the Sunshine The Importance of Spotting the Signposts in the Fog Picking the Right Signposts A Glance Back at Satisfaction and Rewards
Chapter 2: The “Not-So-Simple” (But Really Utterly So) Rules of Trading
Never Add to a Losing Position Invest on the Side that is Winning Don’t Hold on to Losing Positions Go Where the Strength is Making “Logical” Plays is Costly Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Technician Understand the Environment The Rule that Sums Up the Rest
Chapter 3: The Triumph of Hope over Long-Run Experience: Using Past Returns to Predict Future Performance of a Money Manager
Identifying Noise in Market Decision Making Dealing with the Noise Problem Performance Studies Reasons Past Performance Fails as an Investing Tool Why Do Investors Rely on Past Performance? How Should You Use Performance Data?
Chapter 4: The Long Bond
Investments Must Make Money Be Nonconsensus and Long-Term The Late 1970s Monetary or Fiscal Policy? Distrust in Government My Fearless Forecast No Straight Line Real Money The Long (Unlaunched) Bond Hang in There Consistency is Important Why Buck the Trend? Risk and Maturity The Complexity of Stocks Cocktail Party Prattle The Pros Don’t Like Bonds The Test of History Where do Bonds Go From Here?
Chapter 5: Risk is Not a Knob
Risky Business Modern Portfolio Misunderstandings Risk Misconceptions Expected Returns and Probable Returns Measuring Risk Absolute Probabilities Short-Term and Long-Term Volatility Gremlins Portfolio Management Front Stage: Your Assumptions In Conclusion: Caveat Investor
Chapter 6: Psychology Matters: An Investors’ Guide to Thinking about Thinking
Are You Spock or McCoy? The Primacy of Emotion Emotions: Body or Brain? Emotion: Good, Bad, or Both? Self-Control is Like a Muscle Plasticity as Salvation The Biases We Face Conclusions
Chapter 7: The Means are the Ends
Keynesian Meddling in the Twentieth Century Morality as an Economic Tool
Chapter 8: The 2 Percent Solution
Assessing the Strength of Capitalization-Weighted Investing Investing in Equal-Weighted Indexes: A Better Alternative Getting the 2 Percent of Alpha Conclusion
Chapter 9: The Outsider Trading Scandal
The Value of Information The Dearth of Inside Information The Fallacy of Imbalance Fears The Investor’s Challenge
Chapter 10: The Winner’s Rule
That One Most Important Thing Becoming an Invaluable Employee Being an Effective Mentor Nice Guys Finish Best
Chapter 11: Rich Man, Poor Man
The Power of Compounding The Trick is to Beat Time In the Markets, Hope is the Dangerous Siren Song There is No Substitute for Action
Chapter 12: The Millennium Wave
The Innovation Cycle Secular Bull and Secular Bear Markets Human Psychology Surfing the Millennium Wave Demography is Destiny The Globalization Wave A New World Order What this Means for Investors
Index
Endgame
Contents Title Copyright Dedication Acknowledgments Introduction : Endgame Part One : The End of the Debt Supercycle
Chapter 1 : The Beginning of the End
How Did the Debt Supercycle Come About? Private Deleveraging and Public Leveraging Up
Chapter 2 : Why Greece Matters
What Does Greece Mean to Me, Dad?
Chapter 3 : Let’s Look at the Rules
Six Impossible Things Delta Force Killing the Goose But It’s More Than the Deficit Not Everyone Can Run a Surplus Pity the Greeks The Competitive Currency Devaluation Raceway Final Thoughts . . .
Chapter 4 : The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions
Three Structural Changes Lower Growth, Fewer Jobs, Bigger Deficits, Lower Returns
Chapter 5 : This Time Is Different
A Crisis of Confidence It’s the Deleveraging, Stupid! Some Parting Words from Rogoff and Reinhart
Chapter 6 : The Future of Public Debt
A Bit of Background Drastic Measures The Future Public Debt Trajectory Debt Projections The Challenge for Central Banks Bang, Indeed! The Center Cannot Hold Who Takes the Loss?
Chapter 7 : The Elements of Deflation
The Supertrend Puzzle The Elements of Deflation: What Deflation Looks Like The Velocity of Money A Slowdown in Velocity The Roadmap Ahead: Bernanke’s Helicopter Speech There Are No Good Choices
Chapter 8 : Inflation and Hyperinflation
A Dose of Inflation The Characteristics of Hyperinflations The Dangers of Inflation The Problems of Inflation Hyperinflation in the United States?
Part Two : A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First?
Chapter 9 : The United States
Yes, We’re Screwed Congress: Blind, Ignorant, and Indifferent What Does It All Mean? The Kindness of Strangers Endgame for the United States The Present Contains All Possible Futures Some Policy Suggestions
Chapter 10 : The European Periphery
The Euro: A Suboptimal Currency Union Some Countries Recover; Others Don’t
Chapter 11 : Eastern European Problems
Hungary: Damned if They Do, Damned If They Don’t The Baltics: How to Destroy Your Economy and Keep Your Peg
Chapter 12 : Japan
The Mother of All Bubbles Japanese Government: Spending Money Like There Is No Tomorrow Japan’s Endgame
Chapter 13 : The United Kingdom
The United Kingdom Economy: Not as Safe as Houses Northern Rock: A Modern Bank Run The United Kingdom’s Endgame: Higher Inflation Ahead
Chapter 14 : Australia
The Lucky Country A House of Cards
Chapter 15 : Unintended Consequences
Bubbles in Emerging Markets Difficult Choices
Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts Notes About the Authors Index
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