Global Catastrophic Risks by Bostrom, Nick -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Page Title Page Copyright Page Acknowledgements Foreword Contents 1 Introduction

1.1 Why? 1.2 Taxonomy and organization 1.3 Part I: Background 1.4 Part II: Risks from nature 1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences 1.6 Part IV: Risks from hostile acts 1.7 Conclusions and future directions

Part I Background

2 Long-term astrophysical processes

2.1 Introduction: physical eschatology 2.2 Fate of the Earth 2.3 Isolation of the local group 2.4 Collisionwith Andromeda 2.5 The end of stellar evolution 2.6 The era of degenerate remnants 2.7 The era of black holes 2.8 The Dark Era and beyond 2.9 Life and information processing 2.10 Conclusion Suggestions for further reading References

3 Evolution theory and the future of humanity

3.1 Introduction 3.2 The causes of evolutionary change 3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes

3.3.1 Extreme evolutionary changes 3.3.2 Ongoing evolutionary changes 3.3.3 Changes in the cultural environment

3.4 Ongoing human evolution

3.4.1 Behavioural evolution 3.4.2 The future of genetic engineering 3.4.3 The evolution of other species, including those on which we depend

3.5 Future evolutionary directions

3.5.1 Drastic and rapid climate change without changes in human behaviour 3.5.2 Drastic but slower environmental change accompanied by changes in human behaviour 3.5.3 Colonization of new environments by our species

Suggestions for further reading References

4 Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats

4.1 Introduction 4.2 Types of millennialism

4.2.1 Premillennialism 4.2.2 Amillennialism 4.2.3 Post-millennialism

4.3 Messianism and millenarianism 4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism and apocalypticism 4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism

4.5.1 The singularity and techno-millennialism

4.6 Techno-apocalypticism 4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing future scenarios 4.8 Conclusions Suggestions for further reading References

5 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

5.1 Introduction 5.2 Availability 5.3 Hindsight bias 5.4 Black Swans 5.6 Confirmation bias 5.7 Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination 5.8 The affect heuristic 5.9 Scope neglect 5.10 Calibration and overconfidence 5.11 Bystander apathy 5.12 A final caution 5.13 Conclusion Suggestions for further reading References

6 Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks

6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks 6.2 Past-future asymmetry and risk inferences

6.2.1 A simplified model 6.2.2 Anthropic overconfidence bias 6.2.3 Applicability class of risks 6.2.4 Additional astrobiological information

6.3 Doomsday Argument 6.4 Fermi’s paradox

6.4.1 Fermi’s paradox and GCRs 6.4.2 Risks following from the presence of extraterrestrial intelligence

6.5 The SimulationArgument 6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection effects Suggestions for further reading References

7 Systems-based risk analysis

7.1 Introduction 7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy 7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring

7.3.1 Philosophy and methodology of hierarchical holographic modelling 7.3.2 The definition of risk 7.3.3 Historical perspectives

7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of emergent multi-scale systems 7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events

7.5.1 The limitations of the expected value of risk 7.5.2 The partitioned multi-objective risk method 7.5.3 Risk versus reliability analysis

Suggestions for further reading References

8 Catastrophes and insurance

8.1 Introduction 8.2 Catastrophes 8.3 What the business world thinks 8.4 Insurance 8.5 Pricing the risk 8.6 Catastrophe loss models 8.7 What is risk? 8.8 Price and probability 8.9 The age ofuncertainty 8.10 New techniques

8.10.1 Qualitative risk assessment 8.10.2 Complexity science 8.10.3 Extreme value statistics

8.11 Conclusion: against the gods? Suggestions for further reading References

9 Public policy towards catastrophe

References

Part II Risks from nature

10 Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import

10.1 Introduction 10.2 Atmospheric impact of a super-eruption 10.3 Volcanic winter 10.4 Possible environmental effects of a super-eruption 10.5 Super-eruptions and human population 10.6 Frequency of super-eruptions 10.7 Effects of a super-eruptions on civilization 10.8 Super-eruptions and life in the universe Suggestions for further reading References

11 Hazards from comets and asteroids

11.1 Something like a huge mountain 11.2 How oftenare we struck?

11.2.1 Impact craters 11.2.2 Near-Earth object searches 11.2.3 Dynamical analysis

11.3 The effects of impact 11.4 The role of dust 11.5 Ground truth? 11.6 Uncertainties Suggestions for further reading References

12 Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment

12.1 Introduction 12.2 Radiationthreats

12.2.1 Credible threats 12.2.2 Solar flares 12.2.3 Solar activity and global warming 12.2.4 Solar extinction 12.2.5 Radiation from supernova explosions 12.2.6 Gamma-ray bursts

12.3 Cosmic ray threats

12.3.1 Earth magnetic field reversals 12.3.2 Solar activity, cosmic rays, and global warming 12.3.3 Passage through the Galactic spiral arms 12.3.4 Cosmic rays from nearby supernovae 12.3.5 Cosmic rays from gamma-ray bursts

12.4 Origin of the major mass extinctions 12.5 The Fermi paradox and mass extinctions 12.6 Conclusions References

Part III Risks from unintended consequences

13 Climate change and global risk

13.1 Introduction 13.2 Modelling climate change 13.3 A simple model of climate change

13.3.1 Solar forcing 13.3.2 Volcanic forcing 13.3.3 Anthropogenic forcing

13.4 Limits to current knowledge 13.5 Defining dangerous climate change 13.6 Regional climate risk under anthropogenic change 13.7 Climate risk and mitigation policy 13.8 Discussion and conclusions Suggestions for further reading References

14 Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future

14.1 Introduction 14.2 The baseline: the chronic and persisting burden of infectious disease 14.3 The causation of pandemics 14.4 The nature and source of the parasites 14.5 Modes of microbial and viral transmission 14.6 Nature of the disease impact: high morbidity, high mortality, or both 14.7 Environmental factors 14.8 Humanbehaviour 14.9 Infectious diseases as contributors to other natural catastrophes 14.10 Past Plagues and pandemics and their impact on history 14.11 Plagues of historical note

14.11.1 Bubonic plague: the Black Death 14.11.2 Cholera 14.11.3 Malaria 14.11.4 Smallpox 14.11.5 Tuberculosis 14.11.6 Syphilis as a paradigm of sexually transmitted infections 14.11.7 Influenza

14.12 Contemporary plagues and pandemics

14.12.1 HIV/AIDS 14.12.2 Influenza 14.12.3 HIV and tuberculosis: the double impact of new and ancient threats

14.13 Plagues and pandemics of the future

14.13.1 Microbes that threaten without infection: the microbial toxins 14.13.2 Iatrogenic diseases 14.13.3 The homogenization of peoples and cultures 14.13.4 Man-made viruses

14.14 Discussion and conclusions Suggestions for further reading References

15 Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk

15.1 Introduction 15.2 Anthropomorphic bias 15.3 Predictionand design 15.4 Underestimating the power of intelligence 15.5 Capability and motive

15.5.1 Optimization processes 15.5.2 Aiming at the target

15.6 Friendly Artificial Intelligence 15.7 Technical failure and philosophical failure

15.7.1 An example of philosophical failure 15.7.2 An example of technical failure

15.8 Rates of intelligence increase 15.9 Hardware 15.10 Threats and promises 15.11 Local and majoritarian strategies 15.12 Interactions of Artificial Intelligence with other technologies 15.13 Making progress on Friendly Artificial Intelligence 15.14 Conclusion References

16 Big troubles, imagined and real

16.1 Why look for trouble? 16.2 Looking before leaping

16.2.1 Accelerator disasters 16.2.2 Runaway technologies

16.3 Preparing to Prepare 16.4 Wondering Suggestions for further reading References

17 Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction

17.1 Introduction 17.3 Social growth 17.4 Social collapse 17.5 The distribution of disaster 17.6 Existential disasters 17.7 Disaster policy 17.8 Conclusion References

Part IV Risks from hostile acts

18 The continuing threat of nuclear war

18.1 Introduction

18.1.1 US nuclear forces 18.1.2 Russiannuclear forces

18.2 Calculating Armageddon

18.2.1 Limited war 18.2.2 Global war 18.2.3 Regional war 18.2.4 Nuclear winter

18.3 The current nuclear balance 18.4 The good news about proliferation 18.5 A comprehensive approach 18.6 Conclusion Suggestions for further reading

19 Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril

19.1 Introduction 19.2 Historical recognition of the risk of nuclear terrorism 19.3 Motivations and capabilities for nuclear terrorism

19.3.1 Motivations: the demand side of nuclear terrorism 19.3.2 The supply side of nuclear terrorism

19.4 Probabilities of occurrence

19.4.1 The demand side: who wants nuclear weapons? 19.4.2 The supply side: how far have terrorists progressed? 19.4.3 What is the probability that terrorists will acquire nuclear explosive capabilities in the future? 19.4.4 Could terrorists precipitate a nuclear holocaust by non-nuclear means?

19.5 Consequences of nuclear terrorism

19.5.1 Physical and economic consequences 19.5.2 Psychological, social, and political consequences

19.6 Risk assessment and risk reduction

19.6.1 The risk of global catastrophe 19.6.2 Risk reduction

19.7 Recommendations

19.7.1 Immediate priorities 19.7.2 Long-term priorities

19.8 Conclusion Suggestions for further reading References

20 Biotechnology and biosecurity

20.1 Introduction 20.2 Biological weapons and risks 20.3 Biological weapons are distinct from other so-called weapons of mass destruction 20.4 Benefits come with risks 20.5 Biotechnology risks go beyond traditional virology, micro- and molecular biology 20.6 Addressing biotechnology risks

20.6.1 Oversight of research 20.6.2 ‘Soft’ oversight 20.6.3 Multi-stakeholder partnerships for addressing biotechnology risks s20.6.4 A risk management framework for de novo DNA synthesis technologies 20.6.5 From voluntary codes of conduct to international regulations 20.6.6 Biotechnology risks go beyond creating novel pathogens 20.6.7 Spread of biotechnology may enhance biological security

20.7 Catastrophic biological attacks 20.8 Strengthening disease surveillance and response

20.8.1 Surveillance and detection 20.8.2 Collaboration and communication are essential for managing outbreaks 20.8.3 Mobilization of the public health sector 20.8.4 Containment of the disease outbreak 20.8.5 Research, vaccines, and drug development are essential components of an effective defence strategy 20.8.6 Biological security requires fostering collaborations

20.9 Towards a biologically secure future Suggestions for further reading References

21 Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk

21.1 Nanoscale technologies

21.1.1 Necessary simplicity of products 21.1.2 Risks associated with nanoscale technologies

21.2 Molecular manufacturing

21.2.1 Products of molecular manufacturing 21.2.2 Nano-built weaponry 21.2.3 Global catastrophic risks

21.3 Mitigation of molecular manufacturing risks 21.4 Discussion and conclusion Suggestions for further reading References

22 The totalitarian threat 22.1 Totalitarianism: what happened and why it (mostly) ended

22.2 Stable totalitarianism 22.3 Risk factors for stable totalitarianism

22.3.1 Technology 22.3.2 Politics

22.4 Totalitarian risk management

22.4.1 Technology 22.4.2 Politics

22.5 ‘What’s your p?’ Suggestions for further reading References

Authors’ biographies Index Foot Note

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