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Index
Cover Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Acknowledgements
Foreword
Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 Why?
1.2 Taxonomy and organization
1.3 Part I: Background
1.4 Part II: Risks from nature
1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences
1.6 Part IV: Risks from hostile acts
1.7 Conclusions and future directions
Part I Background
2 Long-term astrophysical processes
2.1 Introduction: physical eschatology
2.2 Fate of the Earth
2.3 Isolation of the local group
2.4 Collisionwith Andromeda
2.5 The end of stellar evolution
2.6 The era of degenerate remnants
2.7 The era of black holes
2.8 The Dark Era and beyond
2.9 Life and information processing
2.10 Conclusion
Suggestions for further reading
References
3 Evolution theory and the future of humanity
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The causes of evolutionary change
3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes
3.3.1 Extreme evolutionary changes
3.3.2 Ongoing evolutionary changes
3.3.3 Changes in the cultural environment
3.4 Ongoing human evolution
3.4.1 Behavioural evolution
3.4.2 The future of genetic engineering
3.4.3 The evolution of other species, including those on which we depend
3.5 Future evolutionary directions
3.5.1 Drastic and rapid climate change without changes in human behaviour
3.5.2 Drastic but slower environmental change accompanied by changes in human behaviour
3.5.3 Colonization of new environments by our species
Suggestions for further reading
References
4 Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Types of millennialism
4.2.1 Premillennialism
4.2.2 Amillennialism
4.2.3 Post-millennialism
4.3 Messianism and millenarianism
4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism and apocalypticism
4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism
4.5.1 The singularity and techno-millennialism
4.6 Techno-apocalypticism
4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing future scenarios
4.8 Conclusions
Suggestions for further reading
References
5 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Availability
5.3 Hindsight bias
5.4 Black Swans
5.6 Confirmation bias
5.7 Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination
5.8 The affect heuristic
5.9 Scope neglect
5.10 Calibration and overconfidence
5.11 Bystander apathy
5.12 A final caution
5.13 Conclusion
Suggestions for further reading
References
6 Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks
6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks
6.2 Past-future asymmetry and risk inferences
6.2.1 A simplified model
6.2.2 Anthropic overconfidence bias
6.2.3 Applicability class of risks
6.2.4 Additional astrobiological information
6.3 Doomsday Argument
6.4 Fermi’s paradox
6.4.1 Fermi’s paradox and GCRs
6.4.2 Risks following from the presence of extraterrestrial intelligence
6.5 The SimulationArgument
6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection effects
Suggestions for further reading
References
7 Systems-based risk analysis
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy
7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring
7.3.1 Philosophy and methodology of hierarchical holographic modelling
7.3.2 The definition of risk
7.3.3 Historical perspectives
7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of emergent multi-scale systems
7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events
7.5.1 The limitations of the expected value of risk
7.5.2 The partitioned multi-objective risk method
7.5.3 Risk versus reliability analysis
Suggestions for further reading
References
8 Catastrophes and insurance
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Catastrophes
8.3 What the business world thinks
8.4 Insurance
8.5 Pricing the risk
8.6 Catastrophe loss models
8.7 What is risk?
8.8 Price and probability
8.9 The age ofuncertainty
8.10 New techniques
8.10.1 Qualitative risk assessment
8.10.2 Complexity science
8.10.3 Extreme value statistics
8.11 Conclusion: against the gods?
Suggestions for further reading
References
9 Public policy towards catastrophe
References
Part II Risks from nature
10 Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Atmospheric impact of a super-eruption
10.3 Volcanic winter
10.4 Possible environmental effects of a super-eruption
10.5 Super-eruptions and human population
10.6 Frequency of super-eruptions
10.7 Effects of a super-eruptions on civilization
10.8 Super-eruptions and life in the universe
Suggestions for further reading
References
11 Hazards from comets and asteroids
11.1 Something like a huge mountain
11.2 How oftenare we struck?
11.2.1 Impact craters
11.2.2 Near-Earth object searches
11.2.3 Dynamical analysis
11.3 The effects of impact
11.4 The role of dust
11.5 Ground truth?
11.6 Uncertainties
Suggestions for further reading
References
12 Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Radiationthreats
12.2.1 Credible threats
12.2.2 Solar flares
12.2.3 Solar activity and global warming
12.2.4 Solar extinction
12.2.5 Radiation from supernova explosions
12.2.6 Gamma-ray bursts
12.3 Cosmic ray threats
12.3.1 Earth magnetic field reversals
12.3.2 Solar activity, cosmic rays, and global warming
12.3.3 Passage through the Galactic spiral arms
12.3.4 Cosmic rays from nearby supernovae
12.3.5 Cosmic rays from gamma-ray bursts
12.4 Origin of the major mass extinctions
12.5 The Fermi paradox and mass extinctions
12.6 Conclusions
References
Part III Risks from unintended consequences
13 Climate change and global risk
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Modelling climate change
13.3 A simple model of climate change
13.3.1 Solar forcing
13.3.2 Volcanic forcing
13.3.3 Anthropogenic forcing
13.4 Limits to current knowledge
13.5 Defining dangerous climate change
13.6 Regional climate risk under anthropogenic change
13.7 Climate risk and mitigation policy
13.8 Discussion and conclusions
Suggestions for further reading
References
14 Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future
14.1 Introduction
14.2 The baseline: the chronic and persisting burden of infectious disease
14.3 The causation of pandemics
14.4 The nature and source of the parasites
14.5 Modes of microbial and viral transmission
14.6 Nature of the disease impact: high morbidity, high mortality, or both
14.7 Environmental factors
14.8 Humanbehaviour
14.9 Infectious diseases as contributors to other natural catastrophes
14.10 Past Plagues and pandemics and their impact on history
14.11 Plagues of historical note
14.11.1 Bubonic plague: the Black Death
14.11.2 Cholera
14.11.3 Malaria
14.11.4 Smallpox
14.11.5 Tuberculosis
14.11.6 Syphilis as a paradigm of sexually transmitted infections
14.11.7 Influenza
14.12 Contemporary plagues and pandemics
14.12.1 HIV/AIDS
14.12.2 Influenza
14.12.3 HIV and tuberculosis: the double impact of new and ancient threats
14.13 Plagues and pandemics of the future
14.13.1 Microbes that threaten without infection: the microbial toxins
14.13.2 Iatrogenic diseases
14.13.3 The homogenization of peoples and cultures
14.13.4 Man-made viruses
14.14 Discussion and conclusions
Suggestions for further reading
References
15 Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Anthropomorphic bias
15.3 Predictionand design
15.4 Underestimating the power of intelligence
15.5 Capability and motive
15.5.1 Optimization processes
15.5.2 Aiming at the target
15.6 Friendly Artificial Intelligence
15.7 Technical failure and philosophical failure
15.7.1 An example of philosophical failure
15.7.2 An example of technical failure
15.8 Rates of intelligence increase
15.9 Hardware
15.10 Threats and promises
15.11 Local and majoritarian strategies
15.12 Interactions of Artificial Intelligence with other technologies
15.13 Making progress on Friendly Artificial Intelligence
15.14 Conclusion
References
16 Big troubles, imagined and real
16.1 Why look for trouble?
16.2 Looking before leaping
16.2.1 Accelerator disasters
16.2.2 Runaway technologies
16.3 Preparing to Prepare
16.4 Wondering
Suggestions for further reading
References
17 Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction
17.1 Introduction
17.3 Social growth
17.4 Social collapse
17.5 The distribution of disaster
17.6 Existential disasters
17.7 Disaster policy
17.8 Conclusion
References
Part IV Risks from hostile acts
18 The continuing threat of nuclear war
18.1 Introduction
18.1.1 US nuclear forces
18.1.2 Russiannuclear forces
18.2 Calculating Armageddon
18.2.1 Limited war
18.2.2 Global war
18.2.3 Regional war
18.2.4 Nuclear winter
18.3 The current nuclear balance
18.4 The good news about proliferation
18.5 A comprehensive approach
18.6 Conclusion
Suggestions for further reading
19 Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril
19.1 Introduction
19.2 Historical recognition of the risk of nuclear terrorism
19.3 Motivations and capabilities for nuclear terrorism
19.3.1 Motivations: the demand side of nuclear terrorism
19.3.2 The supply side of nuclear terrorism
19.4 Probabilities of occurrence
19.4.1 The demand side: who wants nuclear weapons?
19.4.2 The supply side: how far have terrorists progressed?
19.4.3 What is the probability that terrorists will acquire nuclear explosive capabilities in the future?
19.4.4 Could terrorists precipitate a nuclear holocaust by non-nuclear means?
19.5 Consequences of nuclear terrorism
19.5.1 Physical and economic consequences
19.5.2 Psychological, social, and political consequences
19.6 Risk assessment and risk reduction
19.6.1 The risk of global catastrophe
19.6.2 Risk reduction
19.7 Recommendations
19.7.1 Immediate priorities
19.7.2 Long-term priorities
19.8 Conclusion
Suggestions for further reading
References
20 Biotechnology and biosecurity
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Biological weapons and risks
20.3 Biological weapons are distinct from other so-called weapons of mass destruction
20.4 Benefits come with risks
20.5 Biotechnology risks go beyond traditional virology, micro- and molecular biology
20.6 Addressing biotechnology risks
20.6.1 Oversight of research
20.6.2 ‘Soft’ oversight
20.6.3 Multi-stakeholder partnerships for addressing biotechnology risks
s20.6.4 A risk management framework for de novo DNA synthesis technologies
20.6.5 From voluntary codes of conduct to international regulations
20.6.6 Biotechnology risks go beyond creating novel pathogens
20.6.7 Spread of biotechnology may enhance biological security
20.7 Catastrophic biological attacks
20.8 Strengthening disease surveillance and response
20.8.1 Surveillance and detection
20.8.2 Collaboration and communication are essential for managing outbreaks
20.8.3 Mobilization of the public health sector
20.8.4 Containment of the disease outbreak
20.8.5 Research, vaccines, and drug development are essential components of an effective defence strategy
20.8.6 Biological security requires fostering collaborations
20.9 Towards a biologically secure future
Suggestions for further reading
References
21 Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk
21.1 Nanoscale technologies
21.1.1 Necessary simplicity of products
21.1.2 Risks associated with nanoscale technologies
21.2 Molecular manufacturing
21.2.1 Products of molecular manufacturing
21.2.2 Nano-built weaponry
21.2.3 Global catastrophic risks
21.3 Mitigation of molecular manufacturing risks
21.4 Discussion and conclusion
Suggestions for further reading
References
22 The totalitarian threat
22.1 Totalitarianism: what happened and why it (mostly) ended
22.2 Stable totalitarianism
22.3 Risk factors for stable totalitarianism
22.3.1 Technology
22.3.2 Politics
22.4 Totalitarian risk management
22.4.1 Technology
22.4.2 Politics
22.5 ‘What’s your p?’
Suggestions for further reading
References
Authors’ biographies
Index
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