Profiting From the World's Economic Crisis by Conrad, Bud -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Title Page Copyright Page Dedication Table of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgements Introduction

How This Book Is Organized

Part One - ECONOMIC FORCES

Chapter 1 - The Budget Deficit Drives the Growth of All Debt

The Budget Reflects the State of the Nation Federal Budget Spending Taxes and the Federal Budget Federal Budget Borrowing How Will the Deficits Be Funded? History Puts the Credit Crisis in Perspective Historical Projections Have Underestimated Deficits The Components of Government Spending How Government Debt Compares to Inflation in Other Countries Conclusion

Chapter 2 - The Trade Deficit and U. S. Dependency on Foreign Investments

The United States Is the Largest Debtor The Connections between the Trade Deficit and the U.S. Economy The Connection between Home Mortgages and the Trade Deficit Implications of a Falling Trade Deficit Trade Deficits and Government Budget Deficits The Effects of the Trade Deficit Trade Imbalances Hurt the Dollar Status and Set Up Foreign Investors Connecting the Trade Deficit, Budget Deficit, and the Fed Sources to Watch Custody Accounts at the Federal Reserve What Will Be the Effect of the Increasing Trade and Budget Deficits? Conclusion

Chapter 3 - The Big Costs of Health Care, Social Security, and the Military

Health Care and Social Security Costs Social Security Will Drag Deficits Lower Defense Spending Is Continuing to Grow Conclusion

Part Two - FINANCIAL CRISIS RESPONSE

Chapter 4 - The Federal Reserve Prints Our Money (Stop the Presses!)

What Is the Fed? A Private Profiteer or a Government Agency? Who Benefits from the Fed? How Is the Fed Affecting Our Investment Horizon? The Fed Is Out of Control How Did the Fed Pay for Its Big Expansion? Money Creation at the Fed: Is There Any More to It Than Dropping Money from Helicopters? How the Fed Really Creates Money How Effective Is the Reserve Requirement at Controlling Money? So Why Are We Seeing Deflation in Stocks and Houses Now? Foreigners Are Partners in Our Credit Supply The Government Is Supporting the Economy Rather Than the Dollar Federal Reserveâs New Inflation Policy Who Will Buy All the Treasuries? When Might Deflation Turn to Inflation? Political Implications of Egregious Fed Spending The Fed May Be Acting Beyond Its Intended Authority Conclusion

Chapter 5 - The Importance of Debt for Predicting Our Economy

Our Debt Has Grown Way Beyond What Our Economy Can Support Our Money Is Debt Today Debt and Money Have Grown Together Credit Flows Predict Economic Crisis Credit Expanding and Contracting Defines Our Financial Future Economic Effects of Debt Where Is the Inflation? Managing the Overextended Debt Leads to Inflation The Implications of the Bursting Debt Bubble Conclusion

Chapter 6 - The Big-Picture Model of Our Economy

Equilibrium Is an Illusion: The Underlying Structure of Financial Systems The Overview Model The Virtuous Cycle of Growth The Vicious Cycle of Destruction Seeing the Relationships in the Data Conclusion

Part Three - RECESSION OR DEPRESSION?

Chapter 8 - What the United States Can Learn from Japanâs Lost Decade(s): 1989-2009

Chapter 9 - What the United States Can Learn from German and Other European ...

Part Four - INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Chapter 10 - The Stock Market May Be Dead for Another Decade

A Stock Market Model Long-Term Cycles Dividend Yield Gives an Idea of Valuation Looking at Stock Market Sectors Gives Clues about Which Sectors May Be Overvalued Earnings by Sector Reveal the Drivers of Performance Conclusion

Chapter 11 - Energy in the 21st Century: The End of the Petroleum Age

Peak Oil Discovery of New Oil Is Key, but Itâs Not Happening Supply Is Constrained Hubbertâs Curve and the Timing of Peak Oil Natural Gas Coal and Uranium Will Be the Major Energy Sources of the Future Putting the Scenario Together Perspective from a Nobel Laureate Forecasting Energy Prices Conclusion

Chapter 12 - Food, Grain Trading

Grains: Tight Supply Drove Prices Higher Worldwide Pricing Model for Grains Ethanol Cattle and Hogs Conclusion

Chapter 13 - The Demise of the Dollar

U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Whatâs Driving the Dollar? Sacrificing the Dollar for the Economy Was the Fed Intervening for the Dollar? Federal Reserve Swaps Global Enthusiasm for the Dollar Wanes Oil Countries Are Turning Inward Is the Euro a Viable Alternative to the Dollar? How Gold Stacks Up against the Dollar How Stocks Compare to the Dollar Where Could the Dollar Go? Putting the Trends Together Investment Recommendations: Advice for Traders Conclusion

Chapter 14 - Interest Rates: The Trade of the Decade

How the Growth of Public Debt Has Affected Interest Rates Government Credit Expansion Is Huge The Debt Trap Health Care Is Bankrupting the United States The U.S. Treasury Debt Is Short Term Tax Receipts Are Falling Other Central Banks, Money Expansion The Fed Pushes Mortgage Rates Down by Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities A Close-Up Look at Commodity Price Inflation and Rates Interest Rates Rise as the Dollar Falls International Interest Rates and Currencies Interest Rates as Best Investment Opportunity Conclusion

Chapter 15 - Gold Is the Only Real Money

How the Price of Gold Reflects the Macroeconomic Forces Gold Was Used by Central Banks to Back Their Currencies How Gold Moves with Other Parts of the Economy Gold Supply and Demand Investment Demand Drives Price Summarizing Some of the Gold Supply and Demand Forces Gold Leasing and Forward Hedging The Seasonality of Gold Demand Also Affects Prices How to Invest in Gold Valuing Gold Mines Based on Gold in the Ground Futures Contracts Investing in Other Metals: Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Predicting the Price of Gold for the Decade Conclusion

Part Five - PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Chapter 16 - Forecast for the Future

The Crisis Horizon in Pictures Combining the Average-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios of What Might Happen to the ... What Should You Do Summarizing the History

Chapter 17 - Looking Over the Horizon to See the Best Investments

How Debt Affects the Currency and the Real Economy Currency and Financial Problems Who Will Buy Our Government Debt? The Real Economy and Its Tepid Growth International Currency Crisis Predictions Predictions for 2010

About the Author Index