Debunkery by Kenneth L. Fisher -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

FISHER INVESTMENTS PRESS Title Page Copyright Page Acknowledgments Introduction

Reduce Your Error Rate . . . If You Can Debunkery 101 Standing Convention on Its Head Misperceptions on Parade

PART 1 - BASIC BUNK TO MAKE YOU BROKE

BUNK 1 - BONDS ARE SAFER THAN STOCKS

Bonds Can Be Negative, Too Given Just a Bit of Time Inflation’s Bite

BUNK 2 - WELL-RESTED INVESTORS ARE BETTER INVESTORS

Are You So Sure Stocks Are the Problem? Investing Is a Probabilities Game

BUNK 3 - RETIREES MUST BE CONSERVATIVE

Longer Lives, Longer Time Horizons Aged Poverty Is Cruel!

BUNK 4 - AGE EQUALS ASSET ALLOCATION

Is Age All That Matters? Determining Your Benchmark—Three Things

BUNK 5 - YOU SHOULD EXPECT AVERAGE RETURNS

Normal Returns Are Extreme

BUNK 6 - “CAPITAL PRESERVATION AND GROWTH” IS POSSIBLE!

True Capital Preservation as a Goal Is Very Rare

BUNK 7 - TRUST YOUR GUT

Selective Memory and Other Messy Biases Losses Feel Worse Than Gains Feel Good

BUNK 8 - ONE BIG BEAR AND YOU’RE DONE

Big Bear Markets Mean a Big Bull Bounce Fooled by Averages

BUNK 9 - MAKE SURE IT’S A BULL BEFORE DIVING IN

A Classic V

BUNK 10 - GROWTH IS BEST FOR ALL TIME. NO, VALUE. NO, SMALL CAPS

Chasing Heat Supply and Demand (and Investment Bankers)

BUNK 11 - A GOOD CON ARTIST IS HARD TO SPOT

Heed These Five Signs Custody Is the Number One Sign

PART 2 - WALL STREET “WISDOM”

BUNK 12 - STOP-LOSSES STOP LOSSES!

How Do They “Work”? Pick a Level, Any Level

BUNK 13 - COVERED CALLS . . . GOTCHA COVERED

Covered Calls Are Just Like Naked Puts?

BUNK 14 - DOLLAR COST AVERAGING—LOWER RISK, BETTER RETURNS

DCA—A Fee Bonanza

BUNK 15 - VARIABLE ANNUITIES ARE ALL UPSIDE, NO DOWNSIDE

Two Basic Types Big Fees and Tax Trauma

BUNK 16 - EQUITY-INDEXED ANNUITIES—BETTER THAN NORMAL ANNUITIES

The First Pitch The Second Pitch

BUNK 17 - PASSIVE INVESTING IS EASY

Passive Is (NOT) Easy If Passive Were Easy, People Would Do It Other People Are Like That! Not Me . . .

BUNK 18 - DO BETTER WITH MUTUAL FUNDS BY SENDING YOUR SPOUSE ON A SHOPPING SPREE

“Cheap” Can Be Relative

BUNK 19 - BETA MEASURES RISK

Past Performance Is Never Indicative of Future Results Categories That Fall Most Bounce Most

BUNK 20 - EQUITY RISK PREMIUMS—FORECASTING FUTURE RETURNS WITH EASE

Long-Distant Future Supply Meager Assumptions

BUNK 21 - WHEN THE VIX IS HIGH, IT’S TIME TO BUY

Coincident Plus Relative Equal Useless Useless . . . But Also Inconsistent!

BUNK 22 - BE CONFIDENT ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Confidence Is Coincident Not Contrarian Either. Just Useless.

BUNK 23 - ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY DOW!

What’s So Wrong With the Dow? Price-Weighted Insanity Stock Splits and Splitting Headaches

PART 3 - “EVERYONE KNOWS”

BUNK 24 - SO GOES JANUARY

Cognitive Errors Galore Check the Box

BUNK 25 - SELL IN MAY

Sell in May . . . When? And Then What?

BUNK 26 - LOW P/ES MEAN LOW RISK

Fear of Heights Two Moving Parts to a P/E

BUNK 27 - A STRONG DOLLAR IS SUPER

Dollar Dilemma Put the Dollar in a Box Where’s the Zigzag?

BUNK 28 - DON’T FIGHT THE FED

A Monetary Phenomenon Exit Jitters

BUNK 29 - INTEREST PAYS DIVIDENDS

Homegrown Dividends

BUNK 30 - BUY A 5% CD FOR 5% CASH FLOW—EASY!

The Silent Killer

BUNK 31 - BABY BOOMERS RETIRE, WORLD ENDS, ETC.

Boomers Have a Long Time Horizon Bankrupting Social Security Can’t Stop Capital Markets

BUNK 32 - CONCENTRATE TO BUILD WEALTH

Taking Stock in Your Employer The Road More Traveled Nuts and Bolts and Insider Trading Not Gone, Just Down Big

PART 4 - HISTORY LESSONS

BUNK 33 - PRAY FOR BUDGET SURPLUSES

If Everyone Believes It, Ask If It’s True Stupid Government Debt and Velocity

BUNK 34 - HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT IS A KILLER

Unemployment Up, Stocks Up Too? Dropping Unemployment Lags the Economy

BUNK 35 - WITH GOLD, YOU’RE GOLDEN

Booms and Busts—But Mostly Busts Timing Pros Only, Please

BUNK 36 - STOCKS LOVE LOWER TAXES

Cap Gains—A Tax on Selling? Cap Gains Changes and Impacts It’s Only Half the Issue

BUNK 37 - OIL AND STOCKS SEESAW

A Dollar Spent Is a Dollar Spent Long Term—No Correlation Short-Lived Correlation Supply and Demand

BUNK 38 - SWINE FLU, SARS, EBOLA, AND OTHER VIRAL DISASTERS MAKE MARKETS SICK

No Fear of Swine (or Any Other) Flu

BUNK 39 - CONSUMERS ARE KING

The Big Decline Wasn’t Consumers Consumer Spending Is Stable

BUNK 40 - PRESIDENTIAL TERM CYCLES ARE STOCK MARKET VOODOO

Predictable Patterns and Fundamental Drivers Lazy Legislators Mean Happy Markets

BUNK 41 - MY POLITICAL PARTY IS BEST FOR STOCKS

Party Can Matter—At Certain Times A Perverse Inverse

BUNK 42 - STOCK RETURNS ARE TOO HIGH AND MUST FALL

Scary Scaling

PART 5 - IT’S A GREAT BIG WORLD!

BUNK 43 - FOREIGN STOCKS JUST FEEL SO . . . FOREIGN

US and Non-US Stocks—More Correlated Than You Think

BUNK 44 - WHO NEEDS FOREIGN?

US and Non-US Trade Leadership—Irregularly Opportunities to Manage Risk

BUNK 45 - BIG DEBT IS NATIONAL DEATH

A Long History of Big Debt Bigger Debt Abroad!

BUNK 46 - AMERICA CAN’T HANDLE ITS DEBT

Low Interest Rates Lower Costs

BUNK 47 - INDEBTED TO CHINA

Investors Don’t Invest Out of Charity

BUNK 48 - TRADE DEFICITS MAKE DEFICIENT MARKETS

You Are Your Own Trade Deficit Scale It to See It Which Country Would You Rather Be?

BUNK 49 - GDP MAKES STOCKS GROW

Stocks Move First—Up or Down Huge Growth—Wildly Variable Returns

BUNK 50 - TERRORISM TERRORIZES STOCKS

Markets Globally Are Resilient History Shows Stocks Don’t Scare

NOTES ABOUT THE AUTHORS INDEX

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