Managing High-Stakes Risk by Jablonowski, Mark -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Managing High-Stakes Risk Managing High-Stakes Risk

Contents Preface: Does Our Existence Matter? 1 The Philosophy of Survival

1.1 Ethics and the treatment of existential risk 1.2 Moral absolutes, values and the commitment to a natural order 1.3 Why uncertainty is important 1.4 The influence of self-interest 1.5 Rethinking our approach to risk 1.6 The need to plan 1.7 A note on the meaning of survival Further reading

2 Making Decisions Under Conditions of Risk

2.1 The nature of chance events 2.2 High-stakes decisions are unique 2.3 Facing the catastrophe problem 2.4 Fatalism and precaution: The only two choices Further reading

3 The Notion of a Naturally Risk-Free Existence

3.1 The challenge of practical precaution 3.2 Toward an idea of “natural risk” 3.3 Probability, possibility, and propensity 3.4 Risk, subsistence, and safe progress 3.5 Recognizing the uncertainties 3.6 Avoiding danger in an uncertain world 3.7 How uncertainty complicates decisions about the accumulation of risk Further reading

4 Where Are We Now?

4.1 Current manifestations of a more dangerous world 4.2 Down the path to disaster 4.3 The rise of complex socio-technological interactions 4.4 Confusing forced acceptance with naturalness 4.5 What’s next? Further reading

5 Planning for a Safer Future

5.1 Avoiding risk dilemmas 5.2 The problem with short-run risk control techniques 5.3 The importance of preaction 5.4 Backcasting: The search for safe alternatives 5.5 Backcasting as exploratory modeling 5.6 Keeping our options open 5.7 Planning, control and the meta-perspective Further reading

6 Risk Planning on a Wider Scale

6.1 The problem of permissive regulation 6.2 Coordination on a social scale 6.3 Integrating risk planning with social and economic planning 6.4 Centralized, or decentralized? 6.5 The first step: Evaluating risk on a societal basis Further reading

7 Is a Safer World “Worth It”?

7.1 Recognizing the true costs of progress 7.2 Moral absolutes as infinite values 7.3 Achieving a natural balance Further reading

8 Achieving a Viable Utopia

8.1 Assessing our prospects 8.2 “Starting over” is not an option 8.3 The survival ethic as collective sense of purpose 8.4 Recognizing the authority of nature 8.5 Beyond the “tipping point” 8.6 On hope and the future Further reading

Appendix A The Intuitive Principles of Risk Appendix B A Glossary of Key Concepts About the Author Index