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Index
Cover Table of Contents About the Author Preface Acknowledgments PART ONE: An Introduction to the Crisis
CHAPTER 1: Healthy Skepticism for Risk Management
A “COMMON MODE FAILURE” KEY DEFINITIONS: RISK MANAGEMENT AND SOME RELATED TERMS WHAT FAILURE MEANS SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THIS BOOK NOTES
CHAPTER 2: A Summary of the Current State of Risk Management
A SHORT AND ENTIRELY-TOO-SUPERFICIAL HISTORY OF RISK CURRENT STATE OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION CURRENT RISKS AND HOW THEY ARE ASSESSED NOTES
CHAPTER 3: How Do We Know What Works?
ANECDOTE: THE RISK OF OUTSOURCING DRUG MANUFACTURING WHY IT'S HARD TO KNOW WHAT WORKS AN ASSESSMENT OF SELF-ASSESSMENTS POTENTIAL OBJECTIVE EVALUATIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT WHAT WE MAY FIND NOTES
CHAPTER 4: Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model
A SIMPLE ONE-FOR-ONE SUBSTITUTION THE EXPERT AS THE INSTRUMENT A QUICK OVERVIEW OF “UNCERTAINTY MATH” ESTABLISHING RISK TOLERANCE SUPPORTING THE DECISION: A RETURN ON MITIGATION MAKING THE STRAW MAN BETTER NOTE
PART TWO: Why It's Broken
CHAPTER 5: The “Four Horsemen” of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts to Prevent an Apocalypse
ACTUARIES WAR QUANTS: HOW WORLD WAR II CHANGED RISK ANALYSIS FOREVER ECONOMISTS MANAGEMENT CONSULTING: HOW A POWER TIE AND A GOOD PITCH CHANGED RISK MANAGEMENT COMPARING THE HORSEMEN MAJOR RISK MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS TO BE ADDRESSED NOTES
CHAPTER 6: An Ivory Tower of Babel: Fixing the Confusion about Risk
THE FRANK KNIGHT DEFINITION KNIGHT'S INFLUENCE IN FINANCE AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT A CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING DEFINITION RISK AS EXPECTED LOSS DEFINING RISK TOLERANCE DEFINING PROBABILITY ENRICHING THE LEXICON NOTES
CHAPTER 7: The Limits of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know about Uncertainty
THE RIGHT STUFF: HOW A GROUP OF PSYCHOLOGISTS MIGHT SAVE RISK ANALYSIS MENTAL MATH: WHY WE SHOULDN'T TRUST THE NUMBERS IN OUR HEADS “CATASTROPHIC” OVERCONFIDENCE THE MIND OF “ACES”: POSSIBLE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF OVERCONFIDENCE INCONSISTENCIES AND ARTIFACTS: WHAT SHOULDN'T MATTER DOES ANSWERS TO CALIBRATION TESTS NOTES
CHAPTER 8: Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn't Work
A FEW EXAMPLES OF SCORES AND MATRICES DOES THAT COME IN “MEDIUM”?: WHY AMBIGUITY DOES NOT OFFSET UNCERTAINTY UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF SCALES: WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW CAN HURT YOU DIFFERENT BUT SIMILAR-SOUNDING METHODS AND SIMILAR BUT DIFFERENT-SOUNDING METHODS NOTES
CHAPTER 9: Bears, Swans and Other Obstacles to Improved Risk Management
ALGORITHM AVERSION AND A KEY FALLACY ALGORITHMS VERSUS EXPERTS: GENERALIZING THE FINDINGS A NOTE ABOUT BLACK SWANS MAJOR MATHEMATICAL MISCONCEPTIONS WE'RE SPECIAL: THE BELIEF THAT RISK ANALYSIS MIGHT WORK, BUT NOT HERE NOTES
CHAPTER 10: Where Even the Quants Go Wrong: Common and Fundamental Errors in Quantitative Models
A SURVEY OF ANALYSTS USING MONTE CARLOS THE RISK PARADOX FINANCIAL MODELS AND THE SHAPE OF DISASTER: WHY NORMAL ISN'T SO NORMAL FOLLOWING YOUR INNER COW: THE PROBLEM WITH CORRELATIONS THE MEASUREMENT INVERSION IS MONTE CARLO TOO COMPLICATED? NOTES
PART THREE: How to Fix It
CHAPTER 11: Starting with What Works
SPEAK THE LANGUAGE GETTING YOUR PROBABILITIES CALIBRATED USING DATA FOR INITIAL BENCHMARKS CHECKING THE SUBSTITUTION SIMPLE RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES
CHAPTER 12: Improving the Model
EMPIRICAL INPUTS ADDING DETAIL TO THE MODEL ADVANCED METHODS FOR IMPROVING EXPERT'S SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OTHER MONTE CARLO TOOLS SELF-EXAMINATIONS FOR MODELERS NOTES
CHAPTER 13: The Risk Community: Intra- and Extra-organizational Issues of Risk Management
GETTING ORGANIZED MANAGING THE MODEL INCENTIVES FOR A CALIBRATED CULTURE EXTRAORGANIZATIONAL ISSUES: SOLUTIONS BEYOND YOUR OFFICE BUILDING PRACTICAL OBSERVATIONS FROM TRUSTMARK FINAL THOUGHTS ON QUANTITATIVE MODELS AND BETTER DECISIONS NOTES
Additional Calibration Tests and Answers Index End User License Agreement
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