The Future of Everything · The Science of Prediction by Orrell, David -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

COVER PAGE TITLE PAGE COPYRIGHT PAGE INTRODUCTION: THE SCIENCE AND SOCIOLOGY OF FORECASTING

ANATOMY OF A STORM MAPPING THE FUTURE DON’T BLAME THE BUTTERFLY WHERE IS THIS GOING?

PAST

1 SLINGS AND ARROWS THE BEGINNINGS OF PREDICTION

GAIA APOLLO’S ARROW THE MOST PERFECT NUMBER RIGHT VS LEFT MUSIC OF THE SPHERES THE ACADEMICS MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY THE GREEK CIRCLE MODEL THE WORLD’S TUTOR GREEK CIRCLE MODEL, VERSION II STARGAZERS

2 LET THERE BE LIGHT TYCHO BRAHE AND THE MODEL MAKERS

LIGHT VS DARKNESS THE OBSERVER THE THEORIST SQUARE VS OBLONG ODD VS EVEN AT REST VS IN MOTION ONE VS PLURALITY MALE VS FEMALE THE GRID

3 DIVIDE AND CONQUER THE GOSPEL OF DETERMINISTIC SCIENCE

STRAIGHT VS CROOKED LIMITED VS UNLIMITED THE ARROW OF TIME CHAOS HARD AND SOFT GOOD VS EVIL COMPLEXITY COMPLICATIONS

PRESENT

4 RED SKY AT NIGHT PREDICTING THE WEATHER

TAKING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OBSERVATION AND THEORY THE STORMS OF WAR THE GCM STRANGE ATTRACTION BLAME THE BUTTERFLY OUR DAILY FORECAST MEASURING ERROR COMPLICATIONS GETTING THE DRIFT CURVING UP OR CURVING DOWN IRRATIONAL NUMBERS BAD WEATHER

5 IT’S IN THE GENES PREDICTING OUR HEALTH

GOOD BREEDING WHATߣS NORMAL? SMOOTH OR WRINKLY THE CENTRAL DOGMA OF THE SELFISH GENE BIG SCIENCE MEETS THE MASTER MOLECULE PREDICTING HEALTH NATURE, NURTURE, OR NEITHER DATA OR MODEL THE GENERAL CELL MODEL COMPLICATIONS LOCAL OR GLOBAL NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE WATCHING FOR STORMS

6 BULLS AND BEARS PREDICTING OUR ECONOMY

ANATOMY OF A STORM MAKING DOUGH WHAT’S IT WORTH? PREDICTING THE PREDICTORS RANDOM, BUT EFFICIENT MAKING A PROPHET THE GLOBAL CAPITAL MODEL RATIONAL ECONOMISTS COMPLICATIONS POWER TO THE PEOPLE STICKY THEORY INVESTMENT STORIES THE LIVING ECONOMY THREE SIBLINGS

FUTURE

7 THE BIG PICTURE HOW WEATHER, HEALTH, AND WEALTH ARE RELATED

CASE HISTORIES OUR HUMAN STOCK THE WORLD: OVER 6 BILLION CUSTOMERS SERVED LIVING IN A BUBBLE WEATHER: GETTING WARM IN THE LOOP WATER WORLD CLIMATE ATTRACTOR THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT WEALTH: HOT ECONOMY HEALTH: NEXT YEAR’S DISEASE WE DON’T KNOW

8 BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FIGURING OUT WHERE WE WENT WRONG

UNDER THE VOLCANO CAUSE AND EFFECT EXTREME SCIENCE SUBJECT OR OBJECT IT’S ALIVE TELLING STORIES THE CASSANDRA COMPLEX

9 CONSULTING THE CRYSTAL BALL OUR WORLD IN 2100

FORECAST 2100 THE FUTURE FORETOLD (FOR NON-MATHEMATICIANS ONLY) DEFENCE OF SOCRATES

APPENDICES

APPENDIX I: THE SHIFT MAP APPENDIX II: THE LORENZ SYSTEM APPENDIX III: DAISYWORLD

NOTES

INTRODUCTION THE SCIENCE AND SOCIOLOGY OF FORECASTING 1 SLINGS AND ARROWSTHE BEGINNINGS OF PREDICTION 2 LET THERE BE LIGHT 3 DIVIDE AND CONQUERTHE GOSPEL OF DETERMINISTIC SCIENCE 4 RED SKY AT NIGHT PREDICTING THE WEATHER 5 IT’S IN THE GENESPREDICTING OUR HEALTH 6 BULLS AND BEARSPREDICTING OUR ECONOMY 7 THE BIG PICTURE HOW WEATHER, HEALTH, AND WEALTH ARE RELATED 8 BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FIGURING OUT WHERE WE WENT WRONG 9 CONSULTING THE CRYSTAL BALLOUR WORLD IN 2100 APPENDICES

GLOSSARY BIBLIOGRAPHY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS INDEX