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Index
COVER PAGE
TITLE PAGE
COPYRIGHT PAGE
INTRODUCTION: THE SCIENCE AND SOCIOLOGY OF FORECASTING
ANATOMY OF A STORM
MAPPING THE FUTURE
DON’T BLAME THE BUTTERFLY
WHERE IS THIS GOING?
PAST
1 SLINGS AND ARROWS THE BEGINNINGS OF PREDICTION
GAIA
APOLLO’S ARROW
THE MOST PERFECT NUMBER
RIGHT VS LEFT
MUSIC OF THE SPHERES
THE ACADEMICS
MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
THE GREEK CIRCLE MODEL
THE WORLD’S TUTOR
GREEK CIRCLE MODEL, VERSION II
STARGAZERS
2 LET THERE BE LIGHT TYCHO BRAHE AND THE MODEL MAKERS
LIGHT VS DARKNESS
THE OBSERVER
THE THEORIST
SQUARE VS OBLONG
ODD VS EVEN
AT REST VS IN MOTION
ONE VS PLURALITY
MALE VS FEMALE
THE GRID
3 DIVIDE AND CONQUER THE GOSPEL OF DETERMINISTIC SCIENCE
STRAIGHT VS CROOKED
LIMITED VS UNLIMITED
THE ARROW OF TIME
CHAOS
HARD AND SOFT
GOOD VS EVIL
COMPLEXITY
COMPLICATIONS
PRESENT
4 RED SKY AT NIGHT PREDICTING THE WEATHER
TAKING THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST
OBSERVATION AND THEORY
THE STORMS OF WAR
THE GCM
STRANGE ATTRACTION
BLAME THE BUTTERFLY
OUR DAILY FORECAST
MEASURING ERROR
COMPLICATIONS
GETTING THE DRIFT
CURVING UP OR CURVING DOWN
IRRATIONAL NUMBERS
BAD WEATHER
5 IT’S IN THE GENES PREDICTING OUR HEALTH
GOOD BREEDING
WHATߣS NORMAL?
SMOOTH OR WRINKLY
THE CENTRAL DOGMA OF THE SELFISH GENE
BIG SCIENCE MEETS THE MASTER MOLECULE
PREDICTING HEALTH
NATURE, NURTURE, OR NEITHER
DATA OR MODEL
THE GENERAL CELL MODEL
COMPLICATIONS
LOCAL OR GLOBAL
NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE
WATCHING FOR STORMS
6 BULLS AND BEARS PREDICTING OUR ECONOMY
ANATOMY OF A STORM
MAKING DOUGH
WHAT’S IT WORTH?
PREDICTING THE PREDICTORS
RANDOM, BUT EFFICIENT
MAKING A PROPHET
THE GLOBAL CAPITAL MODEL
RATIONAL ECONOMISTS
COMPLICATIONS
POWER TO THE PEOPLE
STICKY THEORY
INVESTMENT STORIES
THE LIVING ECONOMY
THREE SIBLINGS
FUTURE
7 THE BIG PICTURE HOW WEATHER, HEALTH, AND WEALTH ARE RELATED
CASE HISTORIES
OUR HUMAN STOCK
THE WORLD: OVER 6 BILLION CUSTOMERS SERVED
LIVING IN A BUBBLE
WEATHER: GETTING WARM
IN THE LOOP
WATER WORLD
CLIMATE ATTRACTOR
THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT
WEALTH: HOT ECONOMY
HEALTH: NEXT YEAR’S DISEASE
WE DON’T KNOW
8 BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FIGURING OUT WHERE WE WENT WRONG
UNDER THE VOLCANO
CAUSE AND EFFECT
EXTREME SCIENCE
SUBJECT OR OBJECT
IT’S ALIVE
TELLING STORIES
THE CASSANDRA COMPLEX
9 CONSULTING THE CRYSTAL BALL OUR WORLD IN 2100
FORECAST 2100
THE FUTURE FORETOLD (FOR NON-MATHEMATICIANS ONLY)
DEFENCE OF SOCRATES
APPENDICES
APPENDIX I: THE SHIFT MAP
APPENDIX II: THE LORENZ SYSTEM
APPENDIX III: DAISYWORLD
NOTES
INTRODUCTION THE SCIENCE AND SOCIOLOGY OF FORECASTING
1 SLINGS AND ARROWSTHE BEGINNINGS OF PREDICTION
2 LET THERE BE LIGHT
3 DIVIDE AND CONQUERTHE GOSPEL OF DETERMINISTIC SCIENCE
4 RED SKY AT NIGHT PREDICTING THE WEATHER
5 IT’S IN THE GENESPREDICTING OUR HEALTH
6 BULLS AND BEARSPREDICTING OUR ECONOMY
7 THE BIG PICTURE HOW WEATHER, HEALTH, AND WEALTH ARE RELATED
8 BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FIGURING OUT WHERE WE WENT WRONG
9 CONSULTING THE CRYSTAL BALLOUR WORLD IN 2100
APPENDICES
GLOSSARY
BIBLIOGRAPHY
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
INDEX
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