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Index
Contents About the author Note about this eBook edition Preface
Who should read this book Finding your way around What’s in this book
Introduction
Investing today Why this book? Is this book still relevant?
Prologue: What do we know?
What we probably don’t know: future average returns What we probably know: similarity and risk What we definitely know: costs What we might, perhaps know: forecasting returns
Part One: Theory of Smart Portfolios Chapter One: What is the Best Portfolio?
Chapter overview Geometric mean return Expectations Risk and investment horizon Costs Real returns Embarrassment: absolute returns versus relative returns Currency A purely financial judgement Key points
Chapter Two: Uncertainty and Investment
Chapter overview The investment game Statistical modelling The uncertain past Key points
Chapter Three: Trying to Find the Best Portfolio
Chapter overview Portfolio optimisation, made simple Uncertain returns and unstable portfolios Why the future won’t be like the past Key points
Chapter Four: Simple, Smart, and Safe Methods to find the Best Portfolio (Without Costs)
Chapter overview Dealing with different risk appetites Risk weighting The handcrafting method Some practical issues with portfolio allocation Key points
Chapter Five: Smart Thinking About Costs
Chapter overview Why costs are important Cost measurement How to compare the costs of different ETFs How much does it cost to diversify an ETF portfolio? A warning about cost comparisons Smart tactics for reducing costs Key points
Chapter Six: The Unknown Benefits and Known Costs of Diversification
Chapter overview Diversification: What is it good for? Should you diversify? The different costs of ETFs and individual shares Handcrafting, equal weighting, or market cap weighting? Buy the whole index, or just part of it? The smartest way to invest in a given country Does diversifying by buying multiple funds make sense? Key points
Part Two: Creating Smart Portfolios Chapter Seven: A Top-Down Approach to Building Smart Portfolios
Chapter overview Why is top-down smart? The top-down portfolio The road map Issues to consider
Chapter Eight: Asset Classes
Chapter overview Which asset classes? What division of asset classes? What appetite for risk? The smart way to weight asset classes How should smaller investors weight their portfolio and get exposure to asset classes? Summary
Chapter Nine: Alternatives
Chapter overview Different groups of alternatives Genuine alternatives Equity-like alternatives Bond-like alternatives Alternative assets for ETF investors Summary
Chapter Ten: Equities Across Countries
Chapter overview How to structure an equity portfolio My framework for top-down allocation in equities Summary
Chapter Eleven: Equities Within Countries
Chapter overview Allocating to sectors within a country Allocating to individual equities within sectors Ethical investment Summary
Chapter Twelve: Bonds
Chapter overview The world of bonds How to get exposure to bonds How to weight bonds – in theory Weighting bonds for US investors Weighting bonds for UK investors Summary
Chapter Thirteen: Putting It All Together
Chapter overview Example 1: Sarah – US institutional investor Example 2: David – UK investor with £500,000 Example 3: Paul – US investor with $40,000 Example 4: Patricia – UK investor with £50,000 Summary
Part Three: Predicting Returns Chapter Fourteen: Predicting Returns and Selecting Assets
Chapter overview Why predicting risk-adjusted returns is so difficult How can we use smart forecasting models to construct portfolios? Introducing two smart forecasting models Using forecasting models in a top-down handcrafted portfolio Adjusting portfolio weights when you don’t have a model Stock selection when you don’t have a model Summary
Chapter Fifteen: Are Active Fund Managers Really Geniuses? And is Smart Beta Really Smart?
Chapter overview Active fund managers Smart beta Robo advisors Summary
Part Four: Smart Rebalancing Chapter Sixteen: The Theory of Rebalancing
Chapter overview Why do you need to rebalance? Is it worth reweighting and by how much? When to substitute and when not to Tax considerations Summary
Chapter Seventeen: Portfolio Maintenance
Chapter overview Annual review Reacting to external events Periodic portfolio reweighting Tax implications of portfolio maintenance Rebalancing example Summary
Chapter Eighteen: Portfolio Repair
Chapter overview What is portfolio repair? A six-step plan for portfolio repair Some practical points on repair Portfolio repair example Summary
Epilogue Glossary Appendices Appendix A: Resources
Further reading Websites
Appendix B: Cost and Return Statistics
Trading costs Standard deviations Correlations
Appendix C: Technical Stuff
Aggregate returns Standard deviation Geometric means, standard deviations, and Sharpe Ratio Gaussian distributions Correlations Bootstrapping and sampling distributions Portfolio optimisation Forecasting models
Acknowledgements Reference
Investor types and recommended portfolios Costs Minimum investments Choosing ETFs Information for weighting
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