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Index
“NOT SO FAST”
DESERT STORM
A NEW AGE OF GLOBALIZATION
THE FADING OF RENEWABLES?
A STABLE MIDDLE EAST
CONTAINMENT
NEW HORIZONS AND THE “QUIET REVOLUTION”
“THINGS ARE BAD WITH BREAD”
“DEAR JOHN—HELP!”
A NEW RUSSIA: “NO ONE’S AT THE CONTROLS”
RECONSTRUCTING THE OIL INDUSTRY
LUKOIL AND SURGUT
YUKOS: THE SALE OF THE CENTURY
OPENING UP
THE PERIPHERIES
IN THE HEARTLAND
“A GREAT ECONOMIC POWER”
TNK-BP “50/50”
YUKOS
“STRATEGIC RESOURCES”
OIL AND RUSSIA’S FUTURE
THE NEW GREAT GAME
THE PLAYERS
“THE OIL KINGDOM”
HISTORY ON DISPLAY
“ALL ROADS ARE THERE”
“THE NATIVE SON”
“THE DEAL OF THE CENTURY”
WHAT ROUTE FOR EARLY OIL?
THE TWO-TRACK STRATEGY: “OFFEND NO ONE”
WHAT ROUTE FOR THE MAIN PIPELINE?
“NOW IS THE MOMENT”
“OUR MAJOR GOAL”: PETROLEUM AND THE NATION-STATE
KAZAKHSTAN AND THE “FOURTH GENERATION” OF OIL
TENGIZ: “A PERFECT OIL FIELD”
THE PIPELINE BATTLE
“THE MAIN THING IS THAT THE OIL COMES OUT”
KASHAGAN
ONE MORE DEAL
TURKMENISTAN AND THE PIPELINE THAT NEVER WAS
TAP AND CAOP
TURMOIL EN ROUTE
THE “TURKMENBASHI”
HOPE AND EXPERIENCE
“NO POLICY”
WHICH SCENARIO?
THE END OF THE ROAD
THE “ASIAN ECONOMIC MIRACLE”
JAKARTA: “OPEC’S ECONOMIC STARS”
“ESSENTIALLY ALL GONE”: THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS
THE JAKARTA SYNDROME
THE SHOCK
“WERE HE ALIVE TODAY . . .”
THE MERGER THAT WASN’T
THE BREAKOUT: BP AND AMOCO
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE
“EASY GLUM, EASY GLOW”: EXXON AND MOBIL
THE GHOST OF JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER
THE ALARMS
THE FRENCH RECONNECTION : TOTAL AND ELF
“WE HAD TO CONSOLIDATE”: CHEVRON AND TEXACO
THE LAST ONES STANDING: CONOCO AND PHILLIPS
STANDING ASIDE : SHELL
CRISIS FOR THE EXPORTERS
THE “REVERSED MIDAS TOUCH”
“WE COULDN’T LOSE TIME”
“IT IS A TRAP”
THE COUP
HUGO CHÁVEZ
LA APERTURA
PAINTING THE PICTURE
THE OIL WAR
THE ELECTION : NOT EVEN “THE REMOTEST CHANCE”
CHÁVEZ IN POWER
THE RECOVERY OF OIL
THE DAY THAT CHANGED EVERYTHING
“ALO PRESIDENTE”—VENEZUELA
“CALL FIDEL!”
THE GENERAL STRIKE
NIGERIA: “YOU’RE A PETRO-STATE”
ETHNIC CONFLICT
VIOLENCE IN THE DELTA
“THE BOYS”
NATURAL DISASTER
WHY THE WAR?
“OIL”
“BEYOND NATION BUILDING”
NOT A CAKEWALK
THE OIL INDUSTRY: “DILAPIDATED AND DEPLORABLE”
“DE-BAATHIFICATION” AND THE ARMY’S DISSOLUTION
RAMPANT LOOTING
INSURGENCY AND CIVIL WAR
THE INDUSTRY UNDER ATTACK
THE IRAQI DISRUPTION
WHAT DID YOU LEARN?
THE SURGE
THE TIGHTEST MARKET
WHERE ARE THE PETROLEUM ENGINEERS?
“FINANCIALIZATION”
THE RISE OF OIL TRADING
FROM EGGS TO OIL : THE PAPER BARREL
HEDGERS VERSUS SPECULATORS
THE “BRICs”: THE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY OF A GENERATION
TRADING PLACES
OVER THE COUNTER
THE BELIEF SYSTEM
DOES PRICE ACTUALLY MATTER?
“GOING TO EXPLODE”
“YOU NEED BUYERS”
“OIL DOT-COM”
“IT NEEDS TO STOP”
CHINA IN 2014
JEDDAH VERSUS BONGA
BREAK POINT
CHANGING THE CAR FLEET
THE GREAT RECESSION
SOVEREIGN WEALTH
THE PEAK
“A COLD WIND FROM NOWHERE”
“CHINA RISK”
“THE BUILD-OUT OF CHINA”
GROWTH AND ANXIETY
“POOR IN OIL”
DAQING : THE “GREAT CELEBRATION”
“IRON MAN” WANG
RED GUARDS
“EXPORT AS MUCH OIL AS WE CAN”
WORKSHOP OF THE WORLD
THE END OF SELF-SUFFICIENCY
THE “GO OUT” STRATEGY: USING TWO LEGS TO WALK
“LIKE THROWING A MATCH”
“INOCs”
PROPORTION
PETRO-RIVALRY?
“RESPONSIBLE STAKEHOLDERS”
THE FAST LANE
GOING OUT—ON WHEELS
THE PRICE OF SUCCESS
POWER SURGE
ENERGY AND FOREIGN POLICY
THE OVERLAP OF INTERESTS
ABOVEGROUND RISKS
RUNNING OUT AGAIN—AND AGAIN
THE FIFTH TIME
M. KING HUBBERT
AT THE PEAK
WHY SUPPLIES CONTINUE TO GROW
THE SUPERGIANT
DISCOVERIES VERSUS ADDITIONS
HOW MUCH OIL?
LIQUIDS WITH GAS
OUT OF SIGHT OF LAND
THE NORTH SEA AND THE BIRTH OF NON-OPEC
TO THE FRONTIER
DEEPWATER HORIZON
“WE HAVE A SITUATION”
THE RACE TO CONTAIN
“FIGHTING THE SPILL”
THE GOVERNMENT AND THE COMPANY
THE PRESALT: THE NEXT FRONTIER
FROM FRINGE TO MAINSTREAM: CANADIAN OIL SANDS
MEGA-RESOURCE
ABOVEGROUND RISKS
MOTHER NATURE’S PRESSURE COOKER
TIGHT OIL
THE RETURN OF ENERGY SECURITY
THE DIMENSIONS
THE LIMITS OF “ENERGY INDEPENDENCE”
STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE
TOWARD AN INTERNATIONAL REGIME
EMERGENCY STOCKS
OPERATING SYSTEMS
CYBERATTACK: “A BAD NEW WORLD”
BRINGING CHINA AND INDIA “INSIDE”
SECURING THE SUPPLY CHAIN
“THE CENTER OF GRAVITY OF WORLD OIL”
ONE QUARTER OF WORLD RESERVES
THE “HINGES” OF THE WORLD ECONOMY
A CRITICAL NODE
THE SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS
IRAQ’S POTENTIAL
SEEKING HEGEMONY
“THE GREAT SATAN”
NORMALIZATION?
RENEWED MILITANCY
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
THE GAME CHANGER
THE BALANCE OF POWER
INCENTIVES AND SANCTIONS
CABOT’s CRYOGENICS
KILLER FOG
THE “FUEL NON-USE ACT”
“THE CROWN JEWELS”
“FIGURE A WAY”
BREAKTHROUGH
THE “SHALE GALE”
GLOBAL GAS
“WOUNDED BY A FRIEND”
THE EMERGENCE OF GAZPROM
UKRAINE VERSUS RUSSIA
DIVERSIFICATION
A FUEL FOR THE FUTURE
THE WIZARD OF MENLO PARK
“THE SUBDIVISION OF LIGHT”
“BATTLE OF THE CURRENTS”
THE METER MAN
“NATURAL MONOPOLY”: THE REGULATORY BARGAIN
ELEKTROPOLIS: TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER ACROSS THE SEAS
“AIM FOR THE TOP”
“I HAVE ERRED”: TOO MUCH DEBT
THE NEW DEAL: COMPLETING THE ELECTRIFICATION OF AMERICA
“LIVE BETTER ELECTRICALLY”
THE ADMIRAL
THE NUCLEAR NAVY
THE REACTOR AT OBNINSK
“TOO CHEAP TO METER”
THE GREAT NUCLEAR BANDWAGON
“THE BUDDHA IS SMILING”: PROLIFERATION
THREE MILE ISLAND
THE AFTERMATH
FRANCE’S TRANSFORMATION
“BLACK STALKS”
THE EXCEPTIONS
WHAT FUEL FOR THE FUTURE?
RATE SHOCK
TOWARD MARKET
ENTER THE MERCHANT GENERATORS
CALIFORNIA’S STRANGE RESTRUCTURING
THE IRON CURTAIN
“IT WAS MADNESS”
“PIRATES” AND “PLUNDER”: CALIFORNIA AT SEA
“CRISIS BY DESIGN”
IN THE AFTERMATH
MAKING POWER
COAL AND CARBON
CAPTURING THE CARBON
“BIG CARBON”
THE RETURN OF NUCLEAR
A NEW LEASE ON LIFE
“WE ARE GOING TO RESTART”
“DEEP GEOLOGIC STORAGE”
PROLIFERATION
NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE
FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI
POWER AND THE SHALE GALE
BUT HOW MUCH?
“A SENTIMENT OF WONDER”
THE NEW ENERGY QUESTION
THE RISE OF CARBON
WHY NOT TOO HOT OR TOO COLD?
THE ALPINE “HOT BOX”
“GREAT SHEETS OF ICE”
THE ATMOSPHERE: “AS A DAM BUILT ACROSS A RIVER”
ARRHENIUS: THE GREAT BENEFIT OF A WARMING CLIMATE
THE EFFECT OF GUY CALLENDAR: CALCULATING CARBON
“A LARGE-SCALE GEOPHYSICAL EXPERIMENT”
THE UNEXPECTED IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL GEOPHYSICAL YEAR
“OKAY, LET’S GO”: THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER
THE MEETING AT WOODS HOLE
KEELING AND HIS CURVE
“GLOBAL COOLING” : THE NEXT ICE AGE?
MODELING THE CLIMATE
“BOY, IF THIS IS TRUE”: THE RISE OF CLIMATE ACTIVISM
REVELLE’S EXILE
THE HOLE IN THE OZONE: THE ROLE MODEL
JAMES HANSEN’S “VENUS SYNDROME”
THE HOT SUMMER OF 1988 AND THE “WHITE HOUSE EFFECT”
MRS. THATCHER
THE IPCC AND THE “INDISPENSABLE MAN”
SHOOT-OUT AT SUNDSVALL
GETTING READY FOR RIO
TO GO OR NOT TO GO
“A MAJOR HARANGUE DOWN THERE”
“THE DIPLOMATIC FREE-FOR-ALL”
WHAT THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION SET IN MOTION
THE “SCRIBBLER IN CHIEF”
“THE WAR ON POLLUTION”
“OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER”
THE ACID TEST OF ACID RAIN
“LEAST-COST SOLUTIONS”
“THE GRAND POLICY EXPERIMENT”
“A DISCERNIBLE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE”
DEVELOPED VERSUS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
RISING STAKES—AND RISING CLASH
BATTLES AT KYOTO
EUROPE VERSUS THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPING VERSUS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
“COST, COST, AND COST”
HOW REALISTIC?
THE “K” WORD
TWENTY-ONE QUESTIONS
THE FOOT-AND-MOUTH PANIC
MAKING A MARKET IN CARBON
THE POWER OF IMAGES
GREEN CREDENTIALS
THE NOBEL PRIZE
MASSACHUSETTS VERSUS EPA: THE SUPREME COURT STEPS IN
CARROTS AND STICKS
CHINA: “WIN-WIN”
INDIA: “THE CLIMATE AGNOSTIC”
“HOPENHAGEN”
“THE HEALTH OF THE HIMALYAS”
“EXTREME WEATHER”
MAKING THE PLEDGE AT CANCÚN
IT’S UP TO THE EPA
THE LEGACY OF THE GLACIERS
WHAT DOES “RENEWABLES” MEAN?
EARTH DAY
“YOU WILL LEARN”
THE “MORAL EQUIVALENT OF WAR”
“PURPA MACHINES”
GOOD-BYE SUNSHINE
“PRODUCTION, PRODUCTION, PRODUCTION”
THE EPITAPH?
JAPAN: STAYING ALIVE
THE “BUREAUCRAT-NOVELIST”
FEEDING INTO GERMANY
FROM “SOLAR” TO “RENEWABLES”: RECOVERY AND REBRANDING
THE STATES AS LABORATORIES
CLEANTECH
THE “THREE DENCHI BROTHERS”
GREEN DRAGON
“NO AREA’S MORE RIPE”
THE GREAT BUBBLING
NOT MERELY “GOOD SCIENCE”
THE PRIME DRIVER
THE PUBLIC GOOD
ENTER THE VENTURE CAPITALISTS
GEORGES DORIOT: PROPHET OF THE “START-UP NATION”
GO WEST
“CAREER SUICIDE”
THE $6 TRILLION OPPORTUNITY
“MIT IS DOING ENERGY”
“THE ONLY WAY TO BREAK OUT”
THE NATURE OF THE EXPERIMENT
TEN WEEKS THAT SHOOK THE WORLD
SOLAR CELLS
“THOROUGH INVESTIGATION”
THE RACE INTO SPACE
DOWN TO EARTH
THE RESEARCH PROGRAM
SUNSHINE PROJECT
THE GERMAN BOOM
CHINA ENTERS
THIN FILM
THE SOLAR MENU
CONCENTRATING THE SUN
GRID PARITY?
ALL THE ROOFS?
“THE FREE BENEFIT OF WIND”
THE ELECTRIFICATION OF WIND
ON GRANDPA’S KNOB WITH PALMER PUTNAM
THE MODERN INDUSTRY
“CALIFORNIA WIND RUSH”
STURDY DANES
THE SLUMP
THE RETURN OF WIND
A MAINSTREAM TECHNOLOGY
“ON THE CUSP”
BUT HOW BIG?
THE CHALLENGE OF “INTERMITTENCY”
“MARINIZED”: THE OFFSHORE FRONTIER
REAL EFFICIENCY GAINS
JIENENG JIANPAI
INDUSTRY: HOW LOW THE FRUIT?
“ASPIRATIONS”
THE “GAME CHANGER”
WHICH “20 PERCENT”?
THE RIBBON
PATENT NUMBER 808897: “MANUFACTURED WEATHER”
GOING MAINSTREAM
THE GADGIWATTS
EFFICIENCY BY DESIGN
MOTTAINAI: “TOO PRECIOUS TO WASTE”
A SMARTER GRID
THE BIOFUEL VISION
THE FIRST FLEX-FUEL VEHICLE
BIRTH OF GASOHOL
THE MAKING OF AN ETHANOL BOOM
BRAZIL’S “ALCOHOL”
FOOD VERSUS FUEL
A PROMISING FUNGUS
“SWITCH—WHAT?”
THE FORGOTTEN CHALLENGE
“TOUGHER THAN PEOPLE MAY HAVE EXPECTED”
ALGAE: THE LITTLE REFINERIES
WHAT IS POSSIBLE FOR BIOFUELS
FUEL FOR THE FUTURE?
THE STEAM ENGINE
HERR OTTO
THE RACE
ELECTRIC OR GASOLINE?
NATURE’S SECRET
THE NEW FUEL
THE HALCYON DAYS
GETTING MOBBED
THE JAPANESE ARRIVE
THE NEW PASSION
REMAKING OF AUTOMOBILE
WHAT ABOUT PLAN B?
NEW STANDARDS
THE RACE RESUMES
“THE VALLEY OF SMOKES”
CITY UNDER SIEGE
THE AIR RESOURCES BOARD
THE RETURN OF THE EV
THE ROAD MAP
ELECTRIC DRIVE
TAKING A LEAF
CHARGE IT
WHERE WILL THE ELECTRICITY COME FROM?
“THERMAL RUNAWAY”?
ASIA FIRST?
THE HYDROGEN HIGHWAY
WHAT ABOUT NATURAL GAS?
THE CARS OF THE FUTURE
TO THE FUTURE
Prologue
Chapter 1: Russia Returns
Chapter 2: The Caspian Derby
Chapter 3: Across the Caspian
Chapter 4: “Supermajors”
Chapter 5: The Petro-State
Chapter 6: Aggregate Disruption
Chapter 7: War in Iraq
Chapter 8: The Demand Shock
Chapter 9: China’s Rise
Chapter 10: China in the Fast Lane
Chapter 11: Is the World Running Out of Oil?
Chapter 12: Unconventional
Chapter 13: The Security of Energy
Chapter 14: Shifting Sands in the Persian Gulf
Chapter 15: Gas on Water
Chapter 16: The Natural Gas Revolution
Chapter 17: Alternating Currents
Chapter 18: The Nuclear Cycle
Chapter 19: Breaking the Bargain
Chapter 20: Fuel Choice
Chapter 21: Glacial Change
Chapter 22: The Age of Discovery
Chapter 23: The Road to Rio
Chapter 24: Making a Market
Chapter 25: On the Global Agenda
Chapter 26: In Search of Consensus
Chapter 27: Rebirth of Renewables
Chapter 28: Science Experiment
Chapter 29: Alchemy of Shining Light
Chapter 30: Mystery of Wind
Chapter 31: The Fifth Fuel—Efficiency
Chapter 32: Closing the Conservation Gap
Chapter 33: Carbohydrate Man
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