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Index
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
List of Contributors
Preface
Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now
Part One: Theoretical and Empirical Extensions
A. Representativeness and Availability
1. Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
2. Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment
3. How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgments
4. Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery
5. The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information
B. Anchoring, Contamination, and Compatibility
6. Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value
7. Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic
8. Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should”
9. Inferential Correction
10. Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem
11. Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”
12. Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice
C. Forecasting, Confidence, and Calibration
13. The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence
14. Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions
15. Probability Judgment across Cultures
16. Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting
D. Optimism
17. Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions
18. Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability
19. When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism
E. Norms and Counterfactuals
20. Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives
21. Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself
Part Two: New Theoretical Directions
A. Two Systems of Reasoning
22. Two Systems of Reasoning
23. The Affect Heuristic
24. Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?
B. Support Theory
25. Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability
26. Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances in Support Theory
27. Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances and Future Directions
C. Alternative Perspectives on Heuristics
28. The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning
29. Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments and Processing Strategies
30. Automated Choice Heuristics
31. How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?
32. Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors: Exploring the Empirical Implications of Deviant Functionalist Metaphors
Part Three: Real-World Applications
A. Everyday Judgment and Behavior
33. The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences
34. Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs
35. When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction among Olympic Medalists
36. Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives
B. Expert Judgment
37. Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants
38. Do Analysts Overreact?
39. The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics and Biases Beyond the Laboratory
40. Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment
41. Heuristics and Biases in Application
42. Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics
References
Index
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