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Index
Table of Contents
Author's Preface
Foreword
Introduction
PART ONE--OUR MENTAL MACHINERY
Thinking About Thinking
Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There To Be Seen?
Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
PART II - TOOLS FOR THINKING
Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information
Do You Really Need More Information?
Keeping an Open Mind
Structuring Analytical Problems
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
PART THREE--COGNITIVE BIASES
What Are Cognitive Biases?
Biases in Evaluation of Evidence
Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect
Biases in Estimating Probabilities
Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
PART IV--CONCLUSIONS
Improving Intelligence Analysis
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