Cognition and Chance by Nickerson, Raymond S. -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Page Title Page Copyright Page Preface Chapter 1: Probability and Chance

BEGINNINGS SO WHAT REALLY IS CHANCE? SUMMARY

Chapter 2: Randomness

WHAT IS RANDOMNESS? RANDOM PROCESSES AND RANDOM PRODUCTS TESTING FOR RANDOMNESS THE PRODUCTION AND PERCEPTION OF RANDOMNESS COMMON MISUNDERSTANDINGS INVOLVING EVENT INDEPENDENCE SUMMARY

Chapter 3: Coincidences

WHAT IS A COINCIDENCE? WHAT MAKES COINCIDENCES INTERESTING? THE COMMONNESS OF SURPRISING COINCIDENCES CHANCE COINCIDENCES AND COMMONCAUSE COINCIDENCES COINCIDENCES IN SCIENCE THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE SUMMARY

Chapter 4: Inverse Probability and the Reverend Thomas Bayes

THE THEORY AN APPLICATION OF BAYES'S RULE BAYESIAN DECISION MAKING THE JUSTIFIABILITY OF BAYES'S RULE BASE RATES AND PRIOR PROBABILITIES DIRECTIONALITY AND WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE LIMITATIONS OF BAYESIAN REASONING ADVANTAGES OF BAYESIAN REASONING SUMMARY

Chapter 5: Some Instructive Problems

A SMALL WAGER THE KING'S FOLLY A SUBTLE DISTINCTION WITH UNSUBTLE IMPLICATIONS KNOWING WHEN TO QUIT SIBLING GENDER THREE CARDS ACES AND KINGS TWO ACES AND A JACK SISTERS AND BROTHERS SUMMARY

Chapter 6: Some Probability Paradoxes and Dilemmas

PARADOXES SUMMARY DILEMMAS

Chapter 7: Statistics

POLITICAL ARITHMETIC AND THE BIRTH OF STATISTICS STATISTICAL REGULARITY OR THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS VARIABILITY AND “ERROR” USES OF STATISTICS STATISTICAL EXPLANATION THEORIES OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE AMBIGUITY IN STATISTICAL ASSERTIONS STATISTICS AS A THEORY OF MIND SUMMARY

Chapter 8: Estimation and Prediction

ESTIMATING SAMPLE STATISTICS AND RELATIVE FREQUENCIES PREDICTING OUTCOMES OF PROBABILISTIC EVENTS SELF-EVALUATION SUMMARY

Chapter 9: Perception of Covariation and Contingency

BIASED FOCUS EXPECTATIONS AND CAUSE-EFFECT ASSUMPTIONS ILLUSORY CORRELATION PROBABILITIES OF CONJUNCTIVE OR DISJUNCTIVE EVENTS THE CONJUNCTION FALLACY CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES SUMMARY

Chapter 10: Choice Under Uncertainty

PRELIMINARY DISTINCTIONS MODELS OF DECISION MAKING MAXIMIZATION OF EXPECTED UTILITY ALTERNATIVES TO EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY INDUCTIVE HEURISTICS PROBABILISTIC MENTAL MODELS AND ANOTHER VIEW ON HEURISTICS SOME POTENTIAL PITFALLS SUMMARY

Chapter 11: People as Intuitive Probabilists

PEOPLE AS BAYESIAN REASONERS THE VERDICT REGARDING STATISTICAL INTUITIONS EFFICACY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING SUMMARY

Chapter 12: Concluding Comments References