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Index
Cover Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Preface
Chapter 1: Probability and Chance
BEGINNINGS
SO WHAT REALLY IS CHANCE?
SUMMARY
Chapter 2: Randomness
WHAT IS RANDOMNESS?
RANDOM PROCESSES AND RANDOM PRODUCTS
TESTING FOR RANDOMNESS
THE PRODUCTION AND PERCEPTION OF RANDOMNESS
COMMON MISUNDERSTANDINGS INVOLVING EVENT INDEPENDENCE
SUMMARY
Chapter 3: Coincidences
WHAT IS A COINCIDENCE?
WHAT MAKES COINCIDENCES INTERESTING?
THE COMMONNESS OF SURPRISING COINCIDENCES
CHANCE COINCIDENCES AND COMMONCAUSE COINCIDENCES
COINCIDENCES IN SCIENCE
THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE
SUMMARY
Chapter 4: Inverse Probability and the Reverend Thomas Bayes
THE THEORY
AN APPLICATION OF BAYES'S RULE
BAYESIAN DECISION MAKING
THE JUSTIFIABILITY OF BAYES'S RULE
BASE RATES AND PRIOR PROBABILITIES
DIRECTIONALITY AND WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE
LIMITATIONS OF BAYESIAN REASONING
ADVANTAGES OF BAYESIAN REASONING
SUMMARY
Chapter 5: Some Instructive Problems
A SMALL WAGER
THE KING'S FOLLY
A SUBTLE DISTINCTION WITH UNSUBTLE IMPLICATIONS
KNOWING WHEN TO QUIT
SIBLING GENDER
THREE CARDS
ACES AND KINGS
TWO ACES AND A JACK
SISTERS AND BROTHERS
SUMMARY
Chapter 6: Some Probability Paradoxes and Dilemmas
PARADOXES
SUMMARY
DILEMMAS
Chapter 7: Statistics
POLITICAL ARITHMETIC AND THE BIRTH OF STATISTICS
STATISTICAL REGULARITY OR THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
VARIABILITY AND “ERROR”
USES OF STATISTICS
STATISTICAL EXPLANATION
THEORIES OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE
AMBIGUITY IN STATISTICAL ASSERTIONS
STATISTICS AS A THEORY OF MIND
SUMMARY
Chapter 8: Estimation and Prediction
ESTIMATING SAMPLE STATISTICS AND RELATIVE FREQUENCIES
PREDICTING OUTCOMES OF PROBABILISTIC EVENTS
SELF-EVALUATION
SUMMARY
Chapter 9: Perception of Covariation and Contingency
BIASED FOCUS
EXPECTATIONS AND CAUSE-EFFECT ASSUMPTIONS
ILLUSORY CORRELATION
PROBABILITIES OF CONJUNCTIVE OR DISJUNCTIVE EVENTS
THE CONJUNCTION FALLACY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
SUMMARY
Chapter 10: Choice Under Uncertainty
PRELIMINARY DISTINCTIONS
MODELS OF DECISION MAKING
MAXIMIZATION OF EXPECTED UTILITY
ALTERNATIVES TO EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY
INDUCTIVE HEURISTICS
PROBABILISTIC MENTAL MODELS AND ANOTHER VIEW ON HEURISTICS
SOME POTENTIAL PITFALLS
SUMMARY
Chapter 11: People as Intuitive Probabilists
PEOPLE AS BAYESIAN REASONERS
THE VERDICT REGARDING STATISTICAL INTUITIONS
EFFICACY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
SUMMARY
Chapter 12: Concluding Comments
References
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