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Index
Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
Lists of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
1. Past developments and present capabilities
Growth modes and big history
Great expectations
Seasons of hope and despair
State of the art
Opinions about the future of machine intelligence
2. Paths to superintelligence
Artificial intelligence
Whole brain emulation
Biological cognition
Brain–computer interfaces
Networks and organizations
Summary
3. Forms of superintelligence
Speed superintelligence
Collective superintelligence
Quality superintelligence
Direct and indirect reach
Sources of advantage for digital intelligence
4. The kinetics of an intelligence explosion
Timing and speed of the takeoff
Recalcitrance
Non-machine intelligence paths
Emulation and AI paths
Optimization power and explosivity
5. Decisive strategic advantage
Will the frontrunner get a decisive strategic advantage?
How large will the successful project be?
Monitoring
International collaboration
From decisive strategic advantage to singleton
6. Cognitive superpowers
Functionalities and superpowers
An AI takeover scenario
Power over nature and agents
7. The superintelligent will
The relation between intelligence and motivation
Instrumental convergence
Self-preservation
Goal-content integrity
Cognitive enhancement
Technological perfection
Resource acquisition
8. Is the default outcome doom?
Existential catastrophe as the default outcome of an intelligence explosion?
The treacherous turn
Malignant failure modes
Perverse instantiation
Infrastructure profusion
Mind crime
9. The control problem
Two agency problems
Capability control methods
Boxing methods
Incentive methods
Stunting
Tripwires
Motivation selection methods
Direct specification
Domesticity
Indirect normativity
Augmentation
Synopsis
10. Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools
Oracles
Genies and sovereigns
Tool-AIs
Comparison
11. Multipolar scenarios
Of horses and men
Wages and unemployment
Capital and welfare
The Malthusian principle in a historical perspective
Population growth and investment
Life in an algorithmic economy
Voluntary slavery, casual death
Would maximally efficient work be fun?
Unconscious outsourcers?
Evolution is not necessarily up
Post-transition formation of a singleton?
A second transition
Superorganisms and scale economies
Unification by treaty
12. Acquiring values
The value-loading problem
Evolutionary selection
Reinforcement learning
Associative value accretion
Motivational scaffolding
Value learning
Emulation modulation
Institution design
Synopsis
13. Choosing the criteria for choosing
The need for indirect normativity
Coherent extrapolated volition
Some explications
Rationales for CEV
Further remarks
Morality models
Do What I Mean
Component list
Goal content
Decision theory
Epistemology
Ratification
Getting close enough
14. The strategic picture
Science and technology strategy
Differential technological development
Preferred order of arrival
Rates of change and cognitive enhancement
Technology couplings
Second-guessing
Pathways and enablers
Effects of hardware progress
Should whole brain emulation research be promoted?
The person-affecting perspective favors speed
Collaboration
The race dynamic and its perils
On the benefits of collaboration
Working together
15. Crunch time
Philosophy with a deadline
What is to be done?
Seeking the strategic light
Building good capacity
Particular measures
Will the best in human nature please stand up
Notes
Bibliography
Index
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