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Index
Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Brief Contents
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Tables
Preface
1 Public Opinion in Democratic Societies
Public Opinion and Government
Public Opinion Defined
The Evolution of the Public Opinion Poll
The Modern Public Opinion Poll and Its Political Consequences
Sources of Information on Public Opinion
Current Polling Data
Linkage Models Between Public Opinion and Public Policies
The Rational-Activist Model
The Political Parties Model
The Interest Groups Model
The Delegate Model
The Sharing Model
Plan of This Book
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
2 Polling: The Scientific Assessment of Public Opinion
The Value of Polls
Politicians and the Polls
The Public Looks at the Polls
Sampling
Sampling Theory
Bad Sampling: Two Historical Examples
Sampling Methods for In-Person Surveys
Telephone Surveys
Interactive Voice Response (Robotic) Telephone Polls
Internet Polls
Question Wording
Question Asymmetries
Multiple Stimuli
Question Order Effects
Balanced Arguments
The Middle Position
Response Acquiescence
Filter Questions
Open-Ended Questions
Social Desirability
The Question Wording Experiment
Summary: The Pitfalls of Question Wording
Polls and Predicting Elections
Allocating Undecideds
Deciphering Who Votes
How Accurate Are the Polls?
Election Day Exit Polls
Conclusion
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
3 Microlevel Opinion: The Psychology of Opinion-Holding
Political Attention and Opinion-Holding
Levels of Political Knowledge
Context and Political Information
Measuring Political Knowledge
Knowledge and Opinions
Converting Information into Opinions
Low Information Rationality
Depth of Opinion-Holding
The “Nonattitudes” Explanation
The “Measurement Error” Explanation
An Explanation Based on Response Probability
Liberal-Conservative Ideology and the Organization of Opinions
Liberal and Conservative Terminology
Use of Ideological Language
Ideology as Liberal-Conservative Consistency
Ideological Thinking: A Summary
Party Identification and the Organization of Political Opinions
Perceptions of Party Differences
Party Identification and Policy Preferences
Party Identification: Psychological Identification or Running Tally?
Political Polarization
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
4 Macrolevel Opinion: The Flow of Political Sentiment
The Micro Foundations of Macro Opinion
Trends in Policy Opinions
Social Welfare Issues
Civil Rights
Foreign Policy
Cultural Issues
General Ideological Movement
General Partisan Movement
Presidential Approval
The Honeymoon
Rally-Round-the-Flag Effect
The Economy
Presidential Approval and Presidential Success
Conclusion: What Moves Public Opinion?
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
5 Political Socialization and Political Learning
The Preadult Years: Socialization to Citizenship
The Consequences of Preadult Socialization to Citizenship
The Agents of Preadult Socialization
The Family
The Peer Group
The Primary and Secondary School
College: Higher Education and Its Impact
The College Years
College Students Compared to Noncollege Youth
Personal Predispositions and Political Attitudes
Personality and Political Attitudes
Genetic and Political Attitudes
Discussion
Socialization During Adulthood
The Life Cycle, Generations, and Party Identification
Generations and Political Polarization
Generations, the Life Cycle, and Policy Issues
The Persistence of Political Orientations
A Note on Marriage
Conclusion
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
6 Public Opinion and Democratic Stability
Support for Democratic Values
A Growth in Democratic Tolerance?
9/11: The Trade-Off Between Civil Liberties and Protecting National Security
The Theory of Democratic Elitism
Pluralistic Intolerance
Intolerant Beliefs and Intolerant Behavior
Political Consensus
Race and Ethnicity
Political Support: Trust and Efficacy
Political Trust
Political Efficacy
Social Trust
Personality and Democratic Citizenship
The Authoritarian Personality
Is There a Democratic Personality?
Conclusion
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
7 Group Differences in Political Opinions
Socioeconomic Class and Political Opinions
Class Differences on Economic Issues
Class Differences on Noneconomic Domestic Issues
Class Differences on Foreign Policy
Class Differences in Voting and Party Preference
Race and Political Opinions
Blacks, Whites, and Civil Rights
Race and Political Opinions Generally
Racial Groups and the Vote
Age and Political Opinions
The Politics of Age
Religion and Political Opinions
Protestants, Catholics, Mormons, Jews, and “Nones”
Evangelicals, Mainline Protestants, Catholics, and Seculars
Geography and Political Opinions
The Changing American South
Gender and Political Opinions
The Gender Gap in Voting and Partisanship
The Gender Gap in Political Knowledge
The Gender Gap in Issue Opinions
Conclusion
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
8 The News Media and Political Opinions
The Evolution of the American Media
Interpretive Journalism
The Fragmentation of the Media
Bias and Negativity in the News
Liberal Journalists
Conservative Ownership
Biased News?
The Public's View of Media Bias
Negativity in the News
Models of Media Effects
The Minimal Effects Model
Contemporary Perspectives on Media Effects
Agenda Setting
Priming
Framing Issues
Mediating Media Influence
Media Content and Political Opinions
Television Network News
The Fox News Effect
Talk Radio
Newspapers
The Internet
Media Change and the Quality of Electoral Decision Making
News Consumption During Presidential Campaigns
The Content of Television Campaign News
Political Advertising
Negativity in Political Ads
Ads and Political Information
Do Political Ads Work?
The Media and Political Polarization
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
9 Elections as Instruments of Popular Control
Political Campaigns and the Voter
Short-Term Forces Below the Presidential Level
Who Are the Floating Voters?
Policy Issues and Voters
Voter Perceptions of Candidate Differences, 2012
Policy Issues, Ideology, and Votes, 2012
Information and Ideological Voting
Issue Voting and Candidate Advantage
Prediction and Causation
Explaining Election Outcomes
Partisanship
Retrospective Performance Evaluation: The Economy and Wars
Candidate Evaluations
Issue Positions of Candidates and Voters
Conclusion
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
10 The Public and Its Elected Leaders
Opinion Sharing Between Policymakers and the Public
Political Parties and Representation
Ideology and Party Leaders
Public Opinion Relative to the Public's Perceptions of the Parties
The Relevance of Party Platforms
Party Voting in Legislatures
Party Labels as a Basis for Policy Choice
The Importance of Party Competition
Does Party Control Matter?
Politicians' Responsiveness to Public Opinion
Political Ambition
Following Public Opinion
Electoral Timing
Political Leaders as Educators
Do Elected Officials Need to Follow Public Opinion?
Incumbency
The Public's Attention to Policy Positions
Interest Groups and Democratic Representation
Interest Groups Opinion as Public Opinion
Money, PACs, and the Electoral Process
Interest Groups: An Assessment
Conclusion
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
11 Public Opinion and the Performance of Democracy
Assessing the Impact of Public Opinion on Policy
Evidence at the National Level
Evidence at the State Level
An Opinion-Policy Connection
Do All Opinions Count Equally?
Interpreting the Public's Role in Democracy
Public Apathy as Mass Political Incompetence
Public Apathy as Rational Disengagement
Public Apathy as Elite Manipulation
Public Apathy as Public Contentment
Evaluation
The Expansion of Political Participation
Critical Thinking Questions
Endnotes
Appendix: The American National Election Study and the General Social Survey Questions
Questions from the American National Election Studies
Questions from the General Social Survey
References
Index
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